The Population Council, with support from FCDO, launched its landmark study “Unlocking the Stall in Fertility Decline and Socio-Economic Development in Pakistan” at a high-level dinner discussion.
The event brought together leading national and international experts, senior government officials, academics, and development partners to deliberate on the drivers of Pakistan’s persistent fertility stagnation and its far-reaching implications for the country’s development trajectory.
In her welcome remarks, Country Director, Population Council, Dr Zeba Sathar highlighted that Pakistan remained one of the few countries in South Asia where fertility has stalled for nearly two decades, hovering around 3.6 children per woman. She stated, “girls’ education, skills, and empowerment are fundamental to transforming the economy, improving health outcomes, and ensuring better well-being for families. Without progress on these fronts, fertility decline will remain slow, and development gains will continue to be undermined.”
Setting the global and regional context, former Vice President of the Population Council, Dr. John P. M. Bongaarts noted that while many countries have successfully reduced their population growth rates and achieved significant socio-economic progress, Pakistan’s stalled fertility places it on a trajectory of rapid population increase. He stressed that “unless we act now to reduce unmet need for family planning and strengthen the delivery of reliable, voluntary FP services, Pakistan will continue to experience population pressures that will adversely affect its development prospects.”
Presenting the study’s findings, Senior Technical Advisor at the Population Council and former Joint Director of PIDE, Dr. G.M. Arif underscored that Pakistan’s fertility transition has been characterized by a delayed onset, a brief period of rapid decline, and a prolonged stall since 2006.
The research shows that fertility remains high primarily due to weak socio-economic development—particularly low female education levels, high child mortality, and stagnant GDP per capita. Social norms continue to reinforce a desire for large families, limiting the demand for modern contraception even among younger cohorts.
