DONALD John Trump the maverick 45th President of the USA was convicted by a New York Jury on 34 counts of felony. This is for the first time in history that a US president or former president has been found guilty on felony charges. Ironically the US constitution or the law does not prevent a person from contesting elections or holding office even after being convicted. Donald Trump will be sentenced on 11th July and the next presidential elections are scheduled for November this year. The elections this year will now become a referendum to decide the fate of Donald Trump should he rot in Jail or occupy the Oval Office in the White House.
America seems to be divided like it was during the civil war of 1960 when the Southern and Northern states were at each other’s throats over the question of slavery.Trump has been found guilty on all counts for his illegal cover up of a hush money payment but this verdict cannot prevent the former president from contesting and retaking the White House for the second time.
Will he go to jail or not this question is debatable and still uncertain.We still don’t know what sentence if any he will receive on the sentencing date of July 11. Trump is a first-time offender for a nonviolent crime, and it is rare for people with no criminal history who are convicted only of falsification of business records to be sentenced to prison in New York. Punishments like fines or probations are normally imposed. The maximum sentence for Trump’s crime of falsifying business records is four years in prison, but in cases involving prison time, defendants are typically sentenced to a year or less.
If punished beyond a fine, Trump could be placed under home confinement or subjected to a curfew rather than imprisoned.Trump could also be released on bail while appealing his conviction. According to the US constitution to be President one has to be at least 35 years old, an American citizen and a resident of the USA for at least 14 years.
Neither a criminal conviction nor a prison sentence would affect Trump’s eligibility or his ability to become president.In theory, he could be sworn in from jail or prison if he were to unseat Democratic President Joe Biden in the November 5 election.
Political pundits and analysts are now relating this conviction to when the Southern army fired a shot at fort Sumter in 1861 that proved to be the first short fired in a long and bloody civil war. This analogy may be a bit exaggerated but the fact of the matter is that Donald Trump Presidency was rather lackluster, he lost the elections in 2020 but refused to concede defeat and then was instrumental in the insurrection on January 6, 2021. Die hard Trump supporters and passionate Republicans believe that he is the target of an insidious conspiracy to deny him the presidency for the second term.
The Democratic Party should have nominated a competent candidate in 2020 instead of the Zombie like Joe Bidenwho could not be persuaded to stand aside for the 2024 elections. These decisions of the Democratic Party have resulted in sharp divisions in the country that could lead to an armed uprising or a civil war.
Trump fans believe that when it became clear that they could not beat him at the ballot box the Democrats adopted ugly tactics like turning to the courts of law and accused him of every possible crime including his business career, his sex life, white house paper work and he was hounded across many states. Such a vicious campaign is unusual in politics and is used for the mafia or gangsters like Al-Capone. Legal experts are now of the view that it is highly unlikely that the July 11 sentence will include prison and it is clear that the aim of this legal action is not to prove the point that nobody is above the law but the aim is to prevent Trump serving another term as the President of the USA.
The next presidential elections are just around the corner. The elections in November 2024 are now being viewed as a referendum on whether Trump should end up in Jail or in the White House. Whatever is the result of the elections America will be the loser. The American voters will either elect a president with a criminal record or the country will erupt in protests and shouts of fraud and rigging which could lead to a national crisis fraught with violence and bloodshed. Such a scenario will be a national humiliation and shame because the USA will them be reduced to the status of a banana republic.
America has already seen rioting and anarchy on 6th January reminiscent of the 1960s during the anti-Vietnam war movement. Trump can be blamed for the wave of violence but the Democratic party has raised the political temperature by calling him a dictator and claiming that another term for Donald Trump will mean the demise of the American republic and the end of democracy in America and now accusing him of being a criminal has further divided the nation into pro Trump and anti-Trump factionsWhy there’s this special hate for him is yet to be determined.
The deadliest thing a president can do is go to war, yet Trump avoided it – while George W Bush declared two, killed millions, and is apparently the acceptable face of the Republican Party. Reality is less important than perception. Trump’s people attack Biden as a far-Left failure, yet he’s copying Trump’s policies at the border and the economy is going well.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
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