Pakistan’s youth will drive national progress only through bold investments in women, health, education and data-led governance.
AS Pakistan turns the page on 2025, the country stands at a defining population moment.
A home to more than 255 million, Pakistan is fifth most populous and one of the youngest nations, with a median age of just over 20 years. The country is bustling with the potential of almost 151 million people of working age (between 15-64 years) and a generation of future promise of nearly 94 million children (between 0–14 years). Yet, Pakistan continues to add more than 4.5 million people to its population every year, one of the highest annual increases in South Asia. This demographic reality presents both an extraordinary opportunity and a serious challenge. Whether this population growth converts into a dividend or a burden depends on the choices that Pakistan makes today.
Encouragingly, Pakistan has built momentum this year to place the population at the heart of its development agenda. At the leadership level, the rethinking of the National Finance Commission (NFC) formula, points to a growing recognition that equitable resource allocation must reflect population dynamics. The government has also taken steps that improve everyday life such as the waiving of taxes on contraceptives, more provincial budget allocations for family planning commodities and the development of a health and population strategy and a National Framework for Population and Development. Both the federal and provincial governments have set an ambitious goal of increasing the use of contraceptives among women from 35% to 60% by 2030 which shows a genuine commitment.
With the release of the latest population census results and encouraging initiatives such as data festivals and Data for Development reforms Pakistan has improved the access to reliable population statistics which is the foundation for evidence-based policymaking. Institutional reforms such as integrating the health and population departments in provinces, and the establishment of a Prime Minister-led committee on the population agenda are markers of progress.
At the same time, Pakistan’s macroeconomic indicators have shown gradual improvement. However, these gains are yet to translate into meaningful progress in key social indicators. Pakistan continues to rank the bottom globally on gender equality according to the world economic forum, with wide gaps in education, health and economic participation. Unmet need for family planning remains high at approximately 16%, teenage pregnancies continue to burden young girls, with an adolescent birth rate of 38 births per 1,000 girls aged 15–19, maternal mortality remains a pressing challenge, with an estimated 155 mothers out every 100,000 die while giving births. The total fertility rate remains around 3.5 children per woman, one of the highest in Asia and fertility decline stalled in several regions due to fragmented services, particularly for poor, rural and marginalized communities.
The scale of social challenges is stark. More than 22.8 million school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-16) remain out of school and gender-based violence continue to haunt lives of an estimated 28% of women facing lifetime physical or sexual violence. Investment in youth, despite their numbers and potential, remains a low priority. One in every three girls in Pakistan never enrolls in school, secondary school attendance among girls remains low, with only about 41 percent enrolled at the ages where they should be completing their basic education. These challenges are exacerbated by effects of climate change such as recurrent floods which disproportionately affect women, children and the poorest households, while diverting public resources from long-term development to emergency response.
The aspiration to address population concerns in Pakistan has not yet translated into concrete action. For instance, countries that historically experienced demographic dividends, such as South Korea, Vietnam and Bangladesh, invested two to three times more of their GDP in health and education than Pakistan, which in 2025 spent only around 2% of GDP on education and less than 1% on health.
The global winds are not favourable for sailing Pakistan’s ship. At the international level, shifting geopolitics and a constrained funding environment have led to declining official development assistance (ODA), placing increasing pressure on national systems. In this context, Pakistan’s future depends on shifting the focus from population size to population quality by investing in its people, their skills, health, gender equality and opportunities, aligned with a rapidly changing global economy. Achieving this will require increased domestic financing in line with CCI targets, complemented by innovative public–private partnerships to extend the reach and sustainability of essential services.
UNFPA firmly believes that when women have the power to make informed reproductive choices, when young people are educated, skilled and meaningfully heard, and when population data guides development decisions, a growing population becomes a powerful engine for progress. The road ahead is long but the direction is clear. Pakistan has the people, the potential and the momentum to succeed. What is needed now is political commitment and collective action to turn this population moment into a national strength, for today’s citizens and for generations to come.
—The writer is UNFPA Representative.
