PAKISTAN, historically a key supporter of the Taliban, now attributes its security challenges to the assistance provided by the group in Afghanistan, despite two decades of international forces’ presence since the September 11 attacks. As both countries face internal crises, their relationship is marked by increasing friction, contrasting the initial perception that a Taliban victory in Afghanistan would be synonymous with Pakistan’s triumph.
How has the Afghan Taliban-Pakistan relationship evolved against the backdrop of geopolitical changes in the region, and why are the two erstwhile friends at loggerheads now? Terrorists targeting Pakistan receive support from Afghan Taliban, who are at the helm of affairs since the withdrawal of international forces in August 2021. Pakistan could not anticipate Afghan Taliban hidden enmity for Pakistan. Taliban arrival in Kabul was considered synonymous with Pakistan’s victory owing to the historical convergence of interests between the two. Some in the policy corridors believed it was Pakistan that had actually triumphed in Afghanistan. Following the Taliban taking over Kabul, Pakistan’s then Premier Imran Khan said that the people in Afghanistan had broken the shackles of slavery, eulogizing Taliban. Pakistan has long been seen as not only sympathetic toward Taliban in Afghanistan but also the group’s main patron since its inception in the 1990s. This background contributed to the impression that Pakistani policymakers were jubilant over the Afghan Taliban’s rise to power in August 2021, despite fears that it could be disastrous for regional peace and stability.
Notwithstanding Pakistan’s intimacy with Taliban, the relationship between the two is becoming more complex than ever. Tensions have started cropping up between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban. This is primarily because both the Taliban and Pakistan view each other differently than they did prior to September 11 and the 2001 invasion of America on Afghanistan. Pakistan’s then top spy General Faiz Hameed was seen having tea in a relaxed mood in Kabul. “Don’t worry, everything will be okay,” when asked about the future of Afghanistan.
Pakistan recalibrated its policy later, reinvigorating its relationship with Taliban as America allowed Pakistan’s arch rival India to play a pivotal role in Afghanistan. Taliban were Pakistan’s bid for offsetting India’s ingress into Afghanistan. Trust between Taliban and Pakistan was lost, even though strategic bilateral cooperation was revived. The Afghan Taliban are operating in Pakistan with the help of TTP as their proxy. They no longer trust the Pakistan – particularly its military owing to the fact that it quickly became a foe in the wake of American pressure and went to the extent of handing over Taliban leaders to America. Afghan Taliban saw this as a betrayal something that is unforgivable in Afghanistan’s tribal Pashtun culture.
The souring of relations between Taliban and Pakistan can be attributed to various thorny issues. Following August 2021, Taliban expected Pakistan to cajole the international community particularly the Western powers, with which Pakistan has remained an ally to either offer de jure or at least de facto recognition of the Taliban regime. Pakistan hoped that the international community might recognize Taliban government, provided it met certain conditions. For Taliban, while American forces were in Afghanistan, relations with Pakistan were restored out of political expediency and the need for sanctuaries. But the sanctuaries are no longer needed, hence there is no need for the Taliban to rely on Pakistan for their survival.
There is little appetite in the world to recognize Taliban, given their notorious track record when it comes human rights especially women’s and minority rights. Pakistan’s own relations with the Western powers have soured over the last few years, and it thus never had the diplomatic muscle to convince the world to recognize Taliban. For its part, Pakistan broadly expected the Taliban to either take some sort of concrete action against the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) who are distinct from the Afghan Taliban and primarily target the Pakistani forces or prevent them from launching attacks inside Pakistan’s territory.
The Afghan Taliban kept reiterating that they would not allow anyone from the territory they hold to carry out militancy or terrorism in another state. Afghan Taliban offered their so-called good offices to facilitate reconciliation or a truce between the state of Pakistan and TTP. This has not been borne out. The Pakistani Taliban have ramped up attacks inside Pakistan’s territory in recent months. Another issue that has caused friction between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban is the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The Taliban, like all preceding Afghan governments, remain unwilling to recognize the Durand Line as the border between the two countries. There has been a series of skirmishes along the border between the Pakistani military and Taliban forces a development that has astonished many. Both states need to tread carefully. A prosperous future of the region demands inclusive peace and decision-making that is in sync with modern socio-political realities at the global level.
—The writer is editor, book ambassador political analyst and author of several books based in Islamabad.
Email: [email protected]
views expressed are writer’s own.
