Saudi-Iran rapprochement & China’s diplomatic triumph
FOR China, the “Century of Humiliation” has long been over. The famous statement that “the 21st century belongs to China” is consistently being proven since the emergence of China as a great power, transforming the US-led international order, via its geo-economic and geo-strategic influence. China’s vision of geo-economics ie, a mix of strategic design, investment, soft power portrayal, mutual benefit and win-win cooperation, is overarching and more pragmatic than the geopolitical influence of the United States. These characteristics have also proved crucial to China’s enhancement of soft power politics and have attracted the attention of most countries across the globe.
Recently, the oil-rich Middle East is becoming a region of great importance for China and many Gulf countries are eager for China to take on a more proactive political role to offset the US hegemony in the region which PRC previously tried to avoid. However, leaving many spectators in awe, Beijing has for the very first time taken on a direct political role to broker the Saudi-Iran deal on March 10 in Beijing, an agreement to rejuvenate the long-strained relationship between the two regional actors of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran. This development has accounted PRC to be in a leading position in Middle Eastern politics, thereby coupling the country’s diplomatic clout with its economic supremacy.
The immediate reason for the rupture of the Saudi-Iran ties in 2016, was the execution of prominent Shiite cleric Nimr al-Nimr by the Saudi government and the subsequent backlash by Iranian protestors as they stormed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and the vow of divine retribution by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iranian Supreme Leader. Nevertheless, when the two arch-rivals announced their rapprochement after years of animosity, suspicions and espionage, much of the world was surprised because China was able to achieve what the US and Russia couldn’t.
For China, the Saudi-Iran deal is a major diplomatic triumph. Earlier, President Xi played a direct part in the talks as he hosted the Iranian President in Beijing in February this year. In December last year, he also made a high-level visit to Riyadh and participated in China-Arab Summit and China-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit and met with the officials of oil-rich Gulf states that are crucial to the energy security of China.
With rumbling contentions, between the US and PRC, American policymakers are concerned about the strategic competition and security issues with China. Beijing’s ascendance in the Middle East has been seen as the winding down of US involvement in the region threatening American interests. To most, Beijing’s involvement as a global mediator in the Saudi-Iran rivalry is reflective of a broader re-adjustment of its foreign policy towards a more active global role. Notwithstanding, the progressively bitter rivalry with Washington and the Russia-Ukraine war in a mire, Chinese Communist Party leadership, particularly Xi has expediently locked the Saudi-Iran deal with a badge symbolic of a great power dedicated to peace via a successful diplomatic engagement.
Critics are of the view that China’s initial interference in the Middle East through economic collaboration and investment whilst keeping security to a minimum, helped her in the image-building of a reliable partner. However, this no longer seems to be the case. With an intensified military and political polarization between the two largest economies, China will inevitably be forced to prioritize its interests in the region by openly aligning itself with the country in which its interests won’t be infringed upon. Moreover, from a security perspective, brokering the Saudi-Iran deal is a Chinese effort of a win-win application of its recent Global Security Initiative and this flagship diplomatic success can, therefore, be used by it as a springboard against the West.
Saudi Arabia sees the rapprochement with Iran, once its greatest security threat, as eradication of the hindrances in its journey of economic transformation and reforms. Furthermore, there are increased prospects of de-escalation in Yemen, where the country has fought a ruthless war against Iran-backed Houthis since 2015. Likewise, Iran has also prioritized its economic engagements and agreements of oil trade with China, given its history of relative economic isolation in the face of economic sanctions imposed by the US.
China views both Saudi Arabia and Iran, as of utmost importance to its energy security and their political, military and economic influence make them vital allies for Beijing. China is the largest export market for Saudi Arabia’s oil with a bilateral trade of $87.3 billion in 2021. On the other hand, the bilateral trade between Iran and China in the same year was $16 billion. China has planned out a modular balancing act and conferred both Riyadh and Tehran with the status of comprehensive strategic partners which is the ultimate of partnership diplomacy of China in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, the rejuvenation of Saudi-Iran ties by China rightly fits its grand strategy and is a remarkable demonstration of a grandiose diplomatic success by China. Given the present Middle Eastern dynamics, it is highly evident that China is upending the US influence in the Gulf and beyond and the subsequent repercussions for regional and global order will resonate for years to come.
—The writer works as a researcher with China-Pakistan Study Centre at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad.
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