MOSCOW, on the sidelines of an international security conference, Russia and the Taliban have signed a defence agreement. It is not clear whether it is an agreement or an MoU. Moscow does not take any action without deliberation. What will be the implications? It will only be possible to dissect once the complete details are available and scrutinized. So far, no formal announcement has been made by Moscow.
During the conference, Indian security advisor Ajit Doval was also in Moscow. Whether he met the Taliban Defence Minister or not is not known. Nevertheless, even if they met, it is no surprise since India is supporting the Taliban and other elements operating against Pakistan from Afghan soil. Nevertheless, it is a matter of concern for Pakistan. Pakistan will take it very seriously and every aspect needs to be debated and scrutinized.
The issue is not that simple since this agreement points towards the beginning of a new Great Game in the regional and global power architecture. On the American withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2022, they left billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment, refusing to hand it over to Pakistan. It is being used by the Taliban and other terrorist groups against Pakistan.
The Taliban initially claimed they had nothing to do with the TTP and other terrorist setups. The Doha Agreement stipulates they will not allow the use of Afghan soil. Yet, terrorist outfits came out in the open with the support of the regime, which itself is a party. Presently, Afghan territory is the centre of gravity of all terrorist operating groups, almost 21 in number. They are openly being supported by Indian RAW, Mossad and CIA to further their strategic interests.
In the global arena, there are no friends and enemies among countries; there is nothing but commonality of interest. The strategic vacuum created after the withdrawal of American forces could not remain vacant. On one side, they did not honour the commitment in Doha to establish a broad-based government. On the other, they continued to support terrorist groups. Russia and China decided to engage the Taliban for their own strategic reasons. China views Afghanistan strategically as an economic route under BRI. Russia has always had interest even after the Soviet defeat in the 80s, Afghanistan being geocentric. Russian contacts with the Taliban increased after US withdrawal and Russia engaged them diplomatically. Firstly, it was part of Russia’s strategic architecture to maintain influence in the region and not be left vacant; on the other hand, engagement with the Taliban regime would allow Russia to minimize terrorist threats on the mainland.
Geographically, Afghanistan is the pendulum which can damage its neighbouring countries if not stable. The Taliban, on the other hand, follow a different path and try to impose a tribal system of governance based on “riwayat” and their own interpretation of Shariah. Taliban internal divisions do not allow a uniform policy to be adopted. Post visit to China by Trump, the world has practically entered a new world order; the era of a unipolar structure stands demolished. China is now accepted as a superpower. There are now three powers in the world: USA, China and Russia. The Russian–Afghan agreement must be examined in this strategic milieu.
Russia cannot ignore the strategic importance of Pakistan. In recent years, Russia has developed a more cordial relationship with Pakistan, with the potential fulfillment of Russia’s long-term dream of reaching warm waters, linking with the ports of Gwadar and Karachi. Apparently, it carries Chinese nod. Russia has already in principle approved Gwadar port linkage with the North–South corridor. It is a major development.
Russia–China relations demand that Russia will ensure Chinese interests are safeguarded in Afghanistan. Terrorist organizations operating against Russia as well as China, including Uyghur elements against China, will not be tolerated if they indulge in any terrorist activity.
Further, Russia will not allow Pakistan drifting solely towards the USA. Pakistan’s abnormal closeness with the USA is a cause of concern for Russia and China, since in today’s geopolitical milieu Pakistan’s strategic geography is a crucial dimension. Pakistan is at a crossroads, controlling ports and waterways leading to Iran, the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and on the other side, an open door to Central Asia. India, in this changed scenario, stands isolated. According to surveys and seismic research by Moscow institutes, carried out in the 1970s, Pakistan holds large reserves of oil and gas along the coastline up to Gwadar and Pasni. Importantly, it is the same underground belt stretching from the UAE and Oman to the coastal belt of Balochistan. It is now an open secret that the UAE scuttled Pakistan’s efforts to explore. For the same reasons, Gwadar port was a UAE target. Ironically, even Iran in the past tried to stop oil and gas exploration in Balochistan. India, if it changes its regional posture from animosity to a shared vision, will be a major beneficiary. Pakistan is the best transit route to India, not only from Afghanistan but also for any oil and gas pipeline originating from Iran passing through Pakistan.
Pakistan is a nuclear power with strong military potential. For India, prosperity lies in cooperation, not war. Fortunately, feeble but saner elements in India are talking. However, with Modi in power, prospects are dim. Mullah Yaqub’s threat post Moscow visit carries propaganda value. If India’s S-400 performs, the Taliban should not have illusions of superiority. The S-400 is not a toy that can be plugged in and used; it is a complete system requiring financing, infrastructure and training. The Taliban army will lack cohesion due to tribal composition.
During Ashraf Ghani’s period, immense money was spent to raise an army which melted, as anticipated, on the first shot. In the recent past, most Taliban have been residing in parts of Pakistan, including their education and businesses. Comparing them with the Mujahideen of the 80s is not correct. The present Taliban are the third generation and carry no such traits of past years. They are trained in violence and seeped in materialism. They do not follow international laws but their own. They are not ready to face 21st-century governance, social change and technology adoption.
Pakistan has one agenda: the Taliban must control terrorist organizations and not allow Afghan soil to be used. In case they fail, Pakistan will carry out retaliatory action notwithstanding any agreement. Nobody knows the Taliban better than Pakistan. They could not have survived 20 years against the USA had there been no sanctuaries and logistics from the Pakistani side.
Pakistan and Afghanistan are bonded in multiple dimensions—historical, economic and social—spanning the Durand Line for centuries. There is also a geostrategic dimension. The present Taliban regime does not represent true rulership of Afghanistan. Taliban lack effective control beyond Pashtun areas; north-western provinces and Hazara regions are not under their effective governance. The Doha Agreement per se requires elections to ensure a representative government and respect for human and women’s rights. Till then, there is no possibility of peaceful existence within and outside Afghanistan. Trouble will continue to brew, sometimes even beyond its borders. A representative government is the only route to stability.
Having accepted the Taliban diplomatically and now with a defence agreement, Moscow is in a position to press them to hold elections and ensure a representative government is installed. It is in the benefit of both Pakistan and Afghanistan to have cordial relations and respect sovereignty. Failing which, there can be no peace. Further, by becoming proxies of India and Israel, they will not benefit Afghanistan but only increase polarization. The Taliban regime in the changed global world order is isolated. Pakistan should view this development seriously.
Pakistan, on its side, should go for rapid development in social and economic sectors in Balochistan and ex-FATA on a war footing. It is suggested that for this purpose, the Chinese model for far-flung towns and cities be adopted, with financial and local powers.
Local bodies should be incorporated into the security architecture. Prosperity brings peace and narrows gaps, removing fault lines for external powers to intervene. Pakistan should also remain engaged with Russia in this matter and must convey its firm resolve to any other power that tries to use Afghan soil to destabilize Pakistan.
—The author is a Brigadier Retired, a decorated officer with 32 years of active combat experience, 30 years in corporate sector as MD/COO. A column writer, Researcher and TV analyst.
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