Muhammad Usman
THE US and Afghan Taliban have finally signed a deal to embark upon the path to peace in Afghanistan where it has remained largely elusive for more than four decades. Looking at deal inked, still search for peace seems neither short nor simple. Now it depends on conditions set forth in the document. The cardinal one is that withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan is contingent upon guarantees and enforcement mechanisms that will prevent use of Afghan soil by any group and individual against security of US and its allies and formation of new post settlement Afghan government as determined by the intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations, due to commence from 10 March 2020. A permanent and comprehensive ceasefire will also be an item on their agenda. It is widely believed that these could be nerve racking and would surely test the participants to the last reservoir of their flexibility for collective good and their past history stands to the contrary. Its signs have started to emerge on the horizon.
These could short circuit the atmosphere of talks, already electric with suspicion, reserve and ill will. Probably, Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani has thrown first spanner in works by declining to comply with provision of release of 5000 Taliban prisoners while terming it a promise of US, not of theirs however, could be made part of forthcoming dialogue and negotiations. This announcement has triggered violent reaction by the Taliban. Besides, they have declared not to take part in intra-Afghan talks until exchange of prisoners takes place. This has put fate of the dialogue along with condition of ceasefire in limbo. Reportedly, there is a split on formation of Afghan government negotiation team between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah. The ethnic considerations could easily be cited the underlying reason for the disagreement. Both are also at loggerheads due to result of recent presidential election. These signs surely give hint of minefield through which Afghan factions have to crisscross before arriving at proposed settlement and there is no dedicated international moderator/mediator to calm the atmosphere and break new grounds.
Since long, Afghanistan has been a hotbed of international intrigues as well as local macabre schemes to serve vested interests because of its strategic location and preponderance of ethnicity within and its strong pulls. Primarily again these are going to determine fate of instant deal. The peace in Afghanistan would benefit the maximum Afghan people, Pakistan, China, Central Asian States and Russia. US considers its security challenges which it faces, come out of China, Iran and Russia. Out of these three, at the moment, China is its number one rival. To be precise, peace in Afghanistan is an absolute benefit to the CPEC and China is its main beneficiary thus, arguably, is the main contention between US and China. Enough evidence exists that it is the mainland where US would contest China to thwart its economic onslaught worldwide.
The instability suits more to US than Peace in Afghanistan. Probably this is the reason that US administration is divided on issue of withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan albeit President Trump wants to pullout his forces to redeem his promise of ending US war in Afghanistan, made by him during election campaign. The stipulated period for US withdrawal is 14 months. Before this timeline, his reelection as President would be decided. In case he is reelected, he would either of two option to exercise; withdraw the forces or stick around. There is no dearth of people who sound the second possibility under one pretext or the other. US could easily find the excuse taking advantage of this conditional deal. US Secretary of State has already declared while speaking at its signing ceremony that US would calibrate its actions with the progress, made on the deal to secure peace in Afghanistan.
Despite their handsome territorial gains, Taliban are not in a position to claim a clear victory at the battlefield. Its absence could frustrate rank and file of the Taliban to remain united on instant deal which, in all probabilities, is likely to encounter numerous and enormous snags and stumbling blocks on the way to its maturity. Afghanistan is a country of warlords and war economy suits them more to advance their vested interests. For them, a war is a mean for their survival/existence. As highlighted earlier, ethnicity is overriding consideration for Afghans, taking primacy even over ideology and national interests. This could mar intra-Afghan dialogue beyond redemption. There are a number of sure spoilers which notably include Afghan government, India and hawks in the US Administration.
Peace is not in their favour. Without US forces and funding, present Afghan government would collapse instantly and go packing. For India, peace in Afghanistan is a nightmare. With Taliban holding major share in future dispensation, its presence in Afghanistan would become untenable. In its ulterior pursuit, Afghan NDS and government and Iran could become the accomplices. Iran could also be a possible spoiler for the sake of its proxies in Afghanistan. Rightly PM Imran khan has urged the stakeholders to keep the spoilers at bay nevertheless, Pakistan should not be too overoptimistic about prospects of peace following instant deal rather be prepared itself to face challenges which may crop up if it fails to materialize as intended and its probability is more than even for the reasons highlighted under this discourse.
— The writer, a retired Lt Col, is freelance columnist based in Islamabad.
Email: [email protected]
