The rapid transformation in the global geostrategic environment has led to a spiraling nuclear arms race between the great powers.
The nuclear-armed states are advancing their nuclear delivery vehicles and contemplating modernizing their nuclear warheads by resuming nuclear weapons tests. Undeniably, the end of the voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapon tests will kick-start a new phase of the nuclear arms race which will further weaken the nuclear non-proliferation regime and may encourage the latent nuclear-weapon states to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and establish their indigenous nuclear deterrence potential by con-duzg nuclear tests.
Since last week, security analysts have been debating President Donald Trump’s announce-ment that the United States could resume nuclear weapon tests. He made a nuclear test an-nouncement in reaction to Russia’s steady advancement of its nuclear arsenal and President Putin’s frequent nuclear signaling to prevent the NATO members’ direct participation in the Ukrainian war. However, the issue remains murkier because Trump did not make clear whether he is interested in the nuclear weapons delivery vehicles advancements or if he de-sires to conduct an actual nuclear weapon test or explosion to modernize the nuclear war-heads.
Russia has not conducted an actual nuclear weapon test/explosion since it announced a volun-tary moratorium on nuclear weapon tests in 1990. However, the Kremlin’s recent three nuclear activities have the potential to unleash the nuclear arms race between the great powers. For instance, Russia conducted a new nuclear-powered cruise missile test named Burevestnik on October 21, 2025. Subsequently, it conducted a nuclear readiness tri-forces drill on October 22, 2025. The most disturbing development was the Kremlin’s new nuclear-powered au-tonomous super torpedo, named Poseidon which was tested on October 28, 2025. It is capa-ble of devastating coastal regions by triggering vast radioactive ocean swells. Precisely, the tests of Burevestnik and Poseidon clearly indicate that Russia is developing a striking capa-bility that can evade the Trump Administration’s $175 billion “golden dome” missile defence system.
Russia’s flexing of its nuclear muscle alarmed and provoked President Donald Trump. On October 30, 2025, Trump instructed the Department of War to immediately restart the process for testing nuclear weapons. It is debatable whether the US is capable of conducting a nuclear weapon test on short notice or requires time to restore its former underground test site in Nevada. It was reported that it could take at least 36 months to fix the test site. Moreover, Trump’s announcement lacks clarity, i.e., whether he was referring to testing a nuclear explo-sion or a nuclear weapon delivery system. The Vice President J.D. Vance opined that Trump was asking for a nuclear explosion. He said, “We have a big arsenal … Sometimes you’ve got to test it to make sure that it’s functioning and working properly.” However, Trump’s empha-sis on an “equal basis” can be interpreted as meaning testing of nuclear-capable delivery ve-hicles. It is because the Kremlin is testing nuclear-capable delivery vehicles and conducting nuclear exercises. The ‘golden dome’ missile defence system, a key part of the US defence strategy, is designed to intercept and destroy incoming ballistic missiles, including those car-rying nuclear warheads.
Importantly, there is no consensus in the US about quashing the over three-decade morato-rium on nuclear weapons testing. A few US Congressmen opposed Trump’s announcement regarding the resumption of nuclear weapons tests. For instance, US Democratic Senator Ed-ward Markey, who co-chairs the influential Congressional Nuclear Weapons and Arms Con-trol Working Group, announced that introduce legislation to prevent Trump from restarting nuclear testing by forbidding funding for it. He said, “A Trumpatomics plan would provoke Russia and China to resume nuclear testing and China in particular has much more to gain from this than does the United States.”
The US has been observing a voluntary moratorium on nuclear weapons tests since its last nuclear weapon test on September 23, 1992. During the following years, the Clinton Admin-istration played a pivotal role in drafting the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). The Treaty banned all test explosions. President Clinton had signed the CTBT draft in Sep-tember 1996, but failed to get its ratification from the United States Senate. Consequently, CTBT lost the support of the then sole superpower. Therefore, it has not entered into force to date.
According to the Washington-based Arms Control Association, the US has a stockpile of 5,225 nuclear warheads and Russia has 5,580. Ironically, despite possessing large nuclear ar-senals, both states appear dissatisfied with their substantial contemporary nuclear arsenals. The two major factors contributing to their lack of confidence in their nuclear arsenals are the investment in research and development of missile shields and the steady weakening of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The US withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in June 2002 and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on August 2, 2019, have deteriorated the bilateral nuclear arms control arrangements between Moscow and Washington. The confidence between them further eroded due to the suspension of the New START Treaty on February 28, 2023.
The resumption of nuclear weapons tests after a hiatus of 33 years by the United States would instigate Russia and China to follow suit. Both states last tested their nuclear weapons in 1990 and in 1996, respectively. President Putin reiterated on various occasions that if someone departs from the moratorium, Russia will act accordingly. Thus, the US departure from the moratorium on nuclear tests will have a domino effect on the other nuclear-weapon states. It would trigger a chain reaction of nuclear testing by other nuclear-armed states, potentially leading to a significant increase in global nuclear tensions and a heightened risk of nuclear war.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
