Naveed Aman Khan
AT the final moments of Brexit I am here on 10 Downing Street Westminster witnessing jubilations of the British. British are glorifying historic moments of Brexit on fairy river Thames. The British believe it’s start of new bright era. Brexit is the 23 June 2016 referendum in which the UK voted to leave the European Union. The residents decided that the benefits of belonging to the unified monetary body no longer outweighed the costs of free movement of immigration. Brexit is the nickname for “British exit” from the EU. The vote was 17.4 million in favor of leaving versus 15.1 million who voted to remain. On 29 March 2017, former UK Prime Minister Theresa May submitted the Article 50 withdrawal notification to the EU. The deadline, which has been extended several times, was 31 January 2020. The Brexit vote imposed three hard choices on the UK Leave with no deal, known as “no-deal Brexit.” Without a trade agreement, ports would be blocked and airlines grounded. In no time, imported food and drugs would run short.
Vote again on Brexit. Many argue that voters did not understand the economic hardships that Brexit would impose. On 10 December 2018, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled that the UK could unilaterally revoke its Brexit application to remain in the EU. Approve a negotiated deal. The sticking point has been the nature of the border between the UK’s Northern Ireland and the EU’s Republic of Ireland. On 24 July 2019, Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May as the UK’s Prime Minister. A royally mandated general election took place on 12 Dec 2019. Brexit’s outcome depended on this election. Johnson’s Conservative Party attained majority. That makes it more likely that Brexit will conform to his Withdrawal Agreement Bill. Johnson’s agreement is very similar to the one negotiated by Theresa May. The UK remains in the EU during the transition period until Brexit is finalized.
The UK has already suffered from Brexit. The economy has slowed, and many businesses have moved their headquarters to the EU. Here are some of the impacts on growth, trade, and jobs. There would also be consequences specific to Ireland, London and Scotland. Trade and travel on the island of Ireland would become more complicated under a no-deal Brexit. Brexit’s biggest disadvantage is its damage to the UK’s economic growth. Most of this has been due to the uncertainty surrounding the final outcome. Uncertainty over Brexit slowed the UK’s growth from 2.4% in 2015 to 1.5% in 2018. The UK government estimated that Brexit would lower the UK’s growth by 6.7% over 15 years. That’s if there is a trade agreement but restrictions on immigration. The British pound fell from $1.48 on the day of the referendum to $1.36 the next day. That helps exports but increases the prices of imports. The pound may strengthen once a deal is approved, depending on the trade terms. Brexit would eliminate Britain’s tariff-free trade status with the other EU members. Tariffs would raise the cost of exports. That would hurt UK exporters as their goods become more expensive in Europe. Some of that pain would be offset by a weaker pound. Tariffs would also increase prices of imports into the UK More than one third of its imports comes from the EU.
International companies would no longer use London as an English-speaking entry into the EU economy. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanly have already switched 10% of their clients. Bank of America has transferred one hundred bankers to its Dublin office and four hundred to Paris. Scotland voted against Brexit. The Scottish government believes that staying in the EU is the best for Scotland and the UK It has been pushing the UK government to allow for a second referendum. To leave the UK, Scotland would have to call a referendum on independence. It could then apply for EU membership on its own. The Brexit vote has strengthened anti-immigration parties throughout Europe. If these parties gain enough ground in France and Germany, they could force an anti-EU vote. If either of those countries left, the EU would lose its most robust economies and would dissolve. On the other hand, new polls show that the majority of EU citizens still strongly support the Union. Almost 75% say the EU promotes peace, and 55% believe it supports prosperity. More than a third see the role of the UK as diminishing.
London based Journalist Shaukat Dar is of the view that Brexit will surely benefit British economy. According to him because of Brexit ascending crime rate in UK will get controlled. Moreover better job and academic opportunities for Pakistan will benefit our country. About Scotland’s independence photojournalist Waheed Ahmad told that U.K will do it’s utmost to keep the country united. According to him it is quite early to say about future of Scotland. Asif Saleem Mitha told that because of Brexit smuggling will get controlled. He added that Pound will maintain its value and Brexit will help distorted situation in UK because criminal gangs of European countries will not be able to freely move from Europe to UK. Brexit will help secure UK’s culture, society and economy from that of Europe.
— The writer is book ambassador, columnist, political analyst and author of several books based in Islamabad.
