THE performance of religious parties in the 2024 elections witnessed a significant decline, marking one of their weakest showings in electoral history. The last instance of such poor performance by religious parties likely dates back to the 1997 general election. In my opinion, the less than desirable performance of the religious parties was, besides other factors, due to the inability of the parties to evolve themselves according to the challenges of the present times. They carried their faith-based narratives, and exhortation of an Islamic system of government as a panacea for all our ills. These religious parties did not seem to have specific answers to many of the challenges faced by the people of Pakistan on a daily basis. The parties did not seem to have convincing solutions to problems like deteriorating economy, inflation, precarious security situation, unemployment and restructuring of our broken education system etc. It seems that Pakistan’s election landscape was not significantly impacted by Taliban government’s presence in Afghanistan.
It was expected that JUI-F would perform strongly in KP and Balochistan. However, in KP, the party’s performance was disheartening. Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman himself lost his seat to Ali Amin Gandapur in D.I.Khan, and similarly, both of his sons along with a younger brother failed to secure their National Assembly seats. It is, however, noteworthy that Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman won a National Assembly seat from the border district of Pashin in Balochistan, a constituency directly influenced by changes in Afghanistan. Pashin was also considered to be the safest constituency for the Maulana. Several factors contributed to the party’s less than expected performance. Besides the main reason already dilated upon, factors like internal differences within the party, flawed candidate selection influenced by the favouritism of the leadership, and allotment of tickets to close relatives, resulted in the poor showing of the party at the hustings.
There was also an error of perception that the Establishment had determined a governing role for JUI-F in KP and Balochistan. The ascendancy of the Taliban in Afghanistan had reinforced this perception. However, it seems that the Establishment had only perceived a share in power for the party. In the interior of Sind, the JUI-F received a decent number of votes in some constituencies, but without winning any. It must, however, be reiterated that the JUI-F candidates took considerably less votes than it did in the 2018 elections. In spite of its impressive network of Madaris (seminaries), mainly along the National and Indus highways, the JUI-F candidates could not secure a single seat either in the National or the Provincial Assembly from Sind. Some observers of politics in Sindh say that JUI-F’s growth in Sindh should be more organic, to challenge the main force in Sind’s politics: The people’s Party.
The underwhelming performance of another mainstream religious party, Jamaat-i-Islami, in the 2024 general election is also a stark reminder that the party and its leaders are rapidly losing traction with the population. The party’s electoral strategies from the 1980s and 1990s are no longer effective. Like other religious parties, Jamaat-i-Islami has also not been able to devise an appealing narrative or a compelling election manifesto that meets the challenges of the present times. The party clearly needs to introspect, leveraging its unique grassroots support and organizational skills for electoral success. It needs to clearly capitalize on its strength of extensive welfare networks and trained human cadres. The JI perhaps, performed the worst in the 2024 elections. It could not pick up a single National Assembly seat throughout the country. The only candidate affiliated with JI, won a provincial seat from Baluchistan, largely due to his renowned welfare work, which resonated with the public.
In the last local body elections, no doubt, the JI benefited from the MQM boycott. The perceived suitability of JI for local governance also played a major role in the success at the local level. The JI can certainly carve out a niche for itself on the national level, if it concentrates on the local bodies elections during the next two terms.
There was a lot of hype regarding the electoral prospects of TLP, a relatively new religious party. But the party could not impact the electoral landscape of Pakistan in any meaningful way, except for a provincial assembly seat in Punjab. The party also secured a few hundred thousand votes across Pakistan, but without taking any other assembly seat. Like other religious based parties, TLP’s strength also lies in its ideological narrative and sectarian demagoguery. When a conducive environment is not available to them, these religious parties tend to do poorly during the elections.
It was interesting to note that TLP tried to project itself as a mainstream party, offering an inclusive manifesto with women’s participation. It highlighted inflation and price hike in its electoral campaign. The party, however, did not realize that mere sloganeering does not qualify a political party to become a mainstream party. Voters can easily differentiate between a religious party, and a party which can understand the nuances of the economy, and has genuine stakes in the power structure. Even if such parties abandon the toxic narrative and sectarian politics, their past continues to haunt them. In spite of their poor performance in the 2024 elections, this is certainly not the end of the road for the religious parties in Pakistan. The enormous increase in religiosity in Pakistan and the prevailing situation of religious militancy in the region will make sure that religious parties thrive in Pakistan. Private and public donations, both nationally and internationally, will keep these parties financially solvent also.
—The writer, based in Islamabad, is a former Health Minister of KP.
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