KARACHI – Pakistan may see another fuel price increase in upcoming review, with Petrol expected to jump by Rs5–10 per litre due to global oil market volatility and geopolitical tensions.
Rising crude prices and possible policy adjustments under fiscal constraints are adding pressure on domestic fuel rates. Since fuel costs impact transport and food inflation heavily, even a small hike could further increase overall inflation in the country. Pakistan may be heading toward another upward adjustment in petroleum product prices as international crude oil markets remain under pressure due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns over global supply disruptions.
As of May 16, 2026, fuel prices remain beyond affordable with Petrol hovering at Rs409.78 per litre while Diesel stands at Rs409.58 per litre. These levels already reflect strain on consumers and the broader inflationary environment.
According to market pundits, the upcoming review could result in a price increase of Rs5–Rs10 per litre, depending on movements in global crude benchmarks and domestic policy adjustments.
Current Oil Prices
| Futures & Indexes | Last | Change |
| WTI Crude | 101.78 | +3.52 |
| Brent Crude | 108.08 | +3.06 |
| Murban Crude | 106.98 | +3.76 |
| Natural Gas | 3.037 | +0.033 |
| Gasoline | 3.522 | +0.035 |
Two key drivers are being closely monitored with sustained upward momentum in international crude oil prices. Potential adjustments in petroleum levy under the IMF-supported fiscal framework.
Analysts suggest that fiscal constraints may limit the government’s ability to absorb international price shocks, increasing pass-through to domestic consumers. Energy and macroeconomic analysts warn that in a heightened geopolitical escalation scenario, petrol prices in Pakistan could potentially surpass Rs430 per litre, marking a significant psychological and economic threshold.
Any further escalation in fuel price may hit Transport cost, food supply chain pressures along with broad-based consumer price index (CPI) inflation as the situation already remains tense.
The global oil market is currently facing multiple supply-side risks, including heightened geopolitical instability in key oil-producing regions.
Concerns over potential disruptions to critical maritime shipping lanes, while rising global diesel demand is tightening overall supply balances. These factors are disproportionately impacting oil-importing economies such as Pakistan, which remain exposed to external price shocks.
According to Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA), petroleum pricing in Pakistan is reviewed on a regular cycle based on International oil price trends, exchange rate movements against the US Dollar.
The next price reiew is expected on Friday, and market participants are closely watching for any pass-through of global price increases into domestic retail fuel rates.
With macroeconomic pressures, external volatility, and fiscal constraints converging, the near-term outlook for fuel pricing remains tilted toward the upside, keeping inflation risks firmly in focus for policymakers and consumers alike.
New Petrol Levy on Petrol and Diesel in Pakistan from May 16
