Zhang Chaozhe and Xiang Sihong
On April 8, 2026, less than one and a half hours before the “deadline” for military action set by U.S. President Trump, the United States and Iran separately announced their acceptance of Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal, and both sides are scheduled to launch two weeks of negotiations in Islamabad on April 10.
The Iranian ambassador to Pakistan described Pakistan’s mediation as “positive and productive,” noting that the mediation was entering a “critical and sensitive” phase. This emergency mediation is not only Pakistan’s direct response to the regional crisis, but also demonstrates its commitment as a responsible country in the Islamic world.
I. Regional Background of Pakistan’s Mediation
In June 2025, the United States and Israel launched “Operation Midnight Hammer” against Iran. The conflict escalated again at the end of February 2026, and by early April it had lasted for more than 40 days, falling into a stalemate. Pakistan’s emergency intervention is mainly based on the following harsh realities:
The current battlefield is locked in a stalemate with huge costs. Although Iran has suffered heavy casualties and property losses, its power transition has remained stable, and its domestic capacity for resistance has been consolidated. Meanwhile, Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp surge in global energy prices. The U.S. and Israel have failed to achieve their goal of overthrowing the Iranian regime, and have instead drawn widespread criticism from the international community.
Pakistan’s core security and economic concerns have become increasingly prominent. As a neighboring country of the Middle East, the only nuclear-armed state in the Islamic world, and a country highly dependent on energy imports from the Middle East, Pakistan is eager to end the war as soon as possible. At this critical juncture, China-Pakistan strategic coordination has provided key support. On March 31, 2026, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar paid an emergency visit to China, and the two sides jointly issued the “Five-Point Initiative”, namely, an immediate ceasefire and cessation of hostilities, the prompt launch of peace talks, the protection of non-military targets and shipping lanes, and the primacy of the UN Charter. China’s impartial stance has played an important supporting role in the acceptance of Pakistan’s ceasefire proposal by both the U.S. and Iran.
II. Strategic Considerations Behind Pakistan’s Active Mediation Efforts
Pakistan’s initiative to actively engage in mediation is by no means a spur-of-the-moment move, but a carefully considered strategic choice.
First, a profound historical tradition and unique advantages. Pakistan can be regarded as the country with the strongest mediation credentials in the Islamic world. In 1971, it was Pakistan that assisted U.S. presidential envoy Henry Kissinger in his secret transit to Beijing, paving the way for Nixon’s visit to China and the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. In 2020, Pakistan again promoted U.S.-Taliban negotiations and facilitated the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. This capability to mediate across ideological and geopolitical divides is unparalleled in the Islamic world. More importantly, Pakistan maintains close relations with both the United States and Iran: it has long-standing military cooperation with the United States, and General Asim Munir maintains a close personal friendship with President Trump; it also shares a border of nearly 1,000 kilometers with Iran, and approximately one-fifth of Pakistan’s 240 million population are Shi’a Muslims. These conditions make it a rare communication bridge.
Second, China’s strategic support and coordination. Pakistan’s mediation is not conducted alone. The “Five-Point Initiative” issued during Dar’s visit to China on March 31 is not only a vivid manifestation of the all-weather strategic cooperative partnership between China and Pakistan, but also a strong political endorsement for Pakistan’s mediation. China emphasized that the initiative “is open and welcomes responses and participation from all countries and international organizations.” The joint issuance of the initiative has provided systemic support for the mediation and prevented it from being overwhelmed by great-power competition. Amid the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, Pakistan has sought China’s mediation in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border crisis, allowing itself to focus on Middle Eastern affairs, which highlights the efficient strategic coordination between the two countries. This “regional power + global power” cooperation model has greatly enhanced the legitimacy and influence of Pakistan’s mediation.
Third, the optimal choice under the Saudi nuclear protection agreement. In September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a joint strategic defense agreement stipulating that “an attack on either party will be regarded as an attack on both parties,” with a core principle similar to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause. Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif further stated that Pakistan’s nuclear program “could be provided” to Saudi Arabia—effectively extending a nuclear umbrella. However, after the outbreak of the conflict, Iran designated Saudi oil facilities as “legitimate military targets,” and Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister issued a stern warning that “patience is not limitless,” indicating growing tension in Saudi–Iran relations. This means that if Saudi Arabia formally enters the war, Pakistan will be forced to make a painful choice between honoring its nuclear security commitments to Saudi Arabia and avoiding involvement in a war against Iran. Proactively mediating and promoting a ceasefire is thus the only way out of this dilemma.
Fourth, the urgent demand of domestic energy security and economic survival. Pakistan’s oil demand relies on imports. In fiscal year 2025, petroleum imports amounted to USD 15.937 billion, accounting for approximately 27% of total imports. After the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, international oil prices surged above USD 100 per barrel, significantly increasing Pakistan’s monthly oil import bill. Under these circumstances, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will introduce a series of austerity measures: reducing fuel subsidies for government vehicles (excluding ambulances and public buses); implementing work-from-home arrangements for some public sector employees (excluding essential personnel); and cutting government expenditures. In this context, promoting a ceasefire between the United States and Iran and restoring navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is not only a diplomatic achievement for Pakistan, but also a necessity for economic survival.
Fifth, institutional resilience under unified leadership. In recent years, Pakistan has established a more robust national defense and security command system. Under the strategic guidance of the Pakistani government, the country has demonstrated outstanding technological and tactical capabilities in nearly a year of border confrontations, consolidating its national security boundaries. This internal institutional coordination provides a solid foundation for Pakistan to speak with composure on the international stage. If the mediation succeeds, it will greatly enhance Pakistan’s voice in the Islamic world and globally. As the only nuclear-armed state in the Islamic world, Pakistan has consistently sought to play a constructive balancing role in regional and international affairs, acting as a reliable communication bridge between China and the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and between the East and the West. If this mediation successfully leads to historic peace talks, it will further consolidate Pakistan’s status as a global mediator and highlight its image as a responsible country committed to peace and dialogue.
III. Prospects Assessment and Pakistan’s Countermeasures
Although a ceasefire agreement has been reached, the future trajectory of U.S.-Iran negotiations still faces challenges. The unpredictability of Trump’s diplomatic style, Iran’s vigilance against deception (particularly after the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei in airstrikes), and Israel’s continued attacks on Iran and its intention to undermine negotiations all make the upcoming two weeks of talks highly uncertain. Recent analyses also describe the ceasefire as fragile and subject to disruption.
On April 10, the United States and Iran will officially launch negotiations in Islamabad. Pakistan should seize this diplomatic milestone and strive to transform mediation outcomes into accessible national interests: leveraging the political credibility accumulated through successful mediation to secure international energy supply guarantees and investment, thereby alleviating the domestic energy crisis, while also urging relevant parties to lift potential restrictions on Pakistan’s foreign exchange flows and improve foreign exchange reserves; utilizing the expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz brought by the ceasefire to stabilize oil prices and import costs, gradually lifting austerity measures imposed due to the war, and reducing public burdens; enhancing its regional strategic position and gaining greater initiative in strategic competition with India, transforming diplomatic momentum into greater influence in regional cooperation and seeking more international understanding and support on issues such as Kashmir; continuing to rely on China-Pakistan strategic coordination to promote the implementation of the “Five-Point Initiative”, and striving for recognition from multilateral mechanisms such as the United Nations, thereby making Pakistan an indispensable mediator in the Middle Eastern security architecture; In addition, strengthening domestic governance and public diplomacy, fostering national pride across all sectors, guiding political forces to focus on economic reform and social development, and proactively telling the story of Pakistan as a peacebuilder to the international community, shaping an image of a stable, open, and trustworthy country. In short, only by transforming this diplomatic breakthrough into a “composite dividend” of domestic economic development, livelihood improvement and long-term strategic credibility is the long-term approach.
Conclusion
In sum, Pakistan’s diplomatic maneuvering and strategic resolve demonstrated in this mediation are impressive. However, whether it can truly pull the United States and Iran out of the quagmire of war remains to be seen. The two-week ceasefire window period is both a valuable opportunity and may merely represent a brief calm before the storm.
[Zhang is Associate Professor at the China Center for South Asian Studies at Sichuan University, Director of the Pakistan Research Center at Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.]
[Xiang is Research Assistant at the Pakistan Research Center at Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.]
