President Trump has concluded his China state visit. First in nine years.
The visit has thrown open new strategic realities and has changed the world order. China has been accepted as an equal world power. No concrete result has come out. Trump, in desperation, has raised anti-China and visible threats of renewed hostilities in the Gulf. It seems Israeli efforts to pressure Trump have been successful. In renewed hostilities, the importance of CPEC becomes more important and relevant.
Pakistan is the first country to recognize China in 1949 when the Communist Party of China triumphed in the civil war and took power. Pakistan also pioneered opening its airline to China, the first in the world. Pakistan was also responsible for China having a permanent seat in the Security Council instead of the Nationalist China government. Pakistan also arranged a meeting between Henry Kissinger and China’s leadership in 1971, opening the way for US–China rapprochement and relations between the USA and China, changing the global strategic scenario at that time. China has emerged as a strong and powerful country since then. Pakistan was first to settle border issues with China, opening the way for mutual cooperation in infrastructure development and defence cooperation. In both domains, Pakistan and China went ahead unhindered despite extreme pressure from the US and Western countries. Pakistan always balanced this approach between China and the West, bearing all sorts of pressure.
Pakistan shared President Xi’s vision when BRI was announced. CPEC is the flagship project of BRI. It is a matter of great satisfaction that, in spite of all sorts of pressure, sabotage and economic arm-twisting, Pakistan and China went ahead and successfully completed the CPEC Phase One. Phase Two has already commenced, though delayed for various reasons: Pakistan’s internal issues, an extremely volatile geostrategic environment and the continuity of sabotage and subversive activities against Pakistan, not only in the KP and Balochistan but also throughout Pakistan. The Chinese engineers in these projects were not only threatened but many lost their lives due to sabotage activities. Pakistan is taking special arrangements to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel. CPEC Phase Two is now progressing satisfactorily, though delayed in its timeline.
Strategic overtures include Russia-approved INSTC. Pakistan and Russia have agreed to develop the North–South Corridor. Gwadar is linked to Iran by road networks, further linked to the Caspian Sea. It is a major development for Russia and Pakistan and enhances the economic viability of not only Gwadar but other areas of Pakistan. It will also bypass terror-ridden Afghanistan.
What is needed within Pakistan is a cohesive political atmosphere to ensure that Pakistan benefits from the projects of CPEC Phase Two, which are extremely important for a breakthrough in Pakistan’s economy and the success of the project. The projects in Phase Two include infrastructure roads and railways, industrial zones, high-technology industries and many other projects like upgradation of Gwadar Port and Gwadar International Airport. Pakistan needs to ensure that its internal domestic cohesion is stable to fully benefit and utilize the opportunity. The Pakistan government should take all parties with it in all the projects. There should be 0% tolerance for any violence against the Chinese and also anybody who is creating hindrance in the implementation of the projects.
It must also be noted that the war between India and Pakistan last year displayed the strength of the strategic bond between China and Pakistan, resulting in victory against India. In this short war, Pakistan had mastery over Chinese equipment and support and training in communication and space technology. Pakistan’s use of multi-domain operations with the help of China against India ensured the India–Pakistan battle scenario entered the 21st century, giving a complete shock to India. While Pakistan was prepared to fight a 21st-century war, India was fighting a 20th-century war. This made their aircraft and naval vessels, including aircraft carriers, sitting ducks and made their political leadership extremely worried, which resulted in the grounding of all aircraft after Pakistan struck and withdrew the aircraft carrier.
The war also changed the complete strategic milieu not only in South Asia but also in West Asia. In the follow-up of the US–Iran war, Pakistan emerged as a leading player to ensure that destruction is minimized. It proved its diplomatic skills by arranging negotiations between the two warring parties who trusted Pakistan, i.e. Iran and the USA. This made Pakistan the natural mediator. It raised the stature of Pakistan globally and ensured that in the future the major player in West Asia is going to be Pakistan. It alters the strategic posture in West Asia and globally in the new world order.
The strategic scenario emerged after the US–Iran war. Pakistan is ready to play a dominant role in the new global environment, to the dismay of India. Indians and Israel are trying their best to sabotage the process. Sabotage activities are initiated in Pakistan not only from Afghan territory with active support of RAW and Mossad but also through supporting subversive elements and sleeping cells in Pakistan. It is necessary that Pakistan strengthens all the pillars of the state, that is, military, economy, social cohesion and political landscape. This will allow Pakistan to play its dominant role in the new world order, which has altered the mono-superpower status of the USA to a multipolar power structure in which China and Russia have emerged as dominant powers.
Pakistan is an applicant of BRICS and a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; it should not only benefit from this membership but also play an active role to benefit geographically and economically. It should also strengthen Pakistan’s defence through alliances and cooperation. It is also important that Pakistan should prepare itself to counter fifth-generation warfare initiated by India against Pakistan in all three domains, that is, economy, political cohesion, social fabric and law and order. Pakistan’s strength emanates from the friendship of China, to be preserved at all costs, since in kinetic operations against India and even other countries, China has pledged support.
Pakistan, however, must keep its relationship with the USA friendly without compromising its own principles. This speaks of the importance of economic self-reliance. Pakistan’s dominant role in West Asia after the US–Iran war has altered the power structure scenario in the Middle East. Pakistan has a leading role as the most dominant emerging power. For that reason, Israel has declared Pakistan as their number one enemy and so have the people of Pakistan. To counter that potent threat, Pakistan needs to be prepared and careful against multiple aggressions.
The concept of 21st-century war further strengthens the requirement of Pakistan–China bonds. This needs not only hard work but also investment. The most appropriate platform is civil-industrial corporate cooperation along with military-civil partnership. We must improve engineering, electrical, telecom and high-tech industries in collaboration with China, making it clear that Pakistan can be a base for such engineering goods exported to the Middle East and globally at lower cost due to short land routes. To that end, Pakistan needs a complete re-examination of fiscal and industrial policies to ensure ease of business. First, cutting government and other expenses for two to three years to ensure Pakistan is out of the IMF. Pakistan must also focus on export substitution industries along with high-tech manufacturing in collaboration with China. This can prove vital in the coming years for both Pakistan and China, providing a reliable partner in South Asia and a pivotal role in West Asia. In the new global strategic balance, Pakistan’s emerging role adds responsibility. It is only possible with an economically and politically stable Pakistan.
