THE international community stands at the cusp of the third revolution in warfare and the fourth industrial revolution, driven by ‘Emerging Technologies,’ often called ‘New Technologies’ or ‘Disruptive Technologies.’ Their dual-use nature gives them numerous civilian and military applications, but their strategic significance lies in their potential to reshape deterrence and stability. Weapons built through the adaptation of new technologies, such as hypersonic weapons, advanced missile defenses, artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, high-performance data analytics, quantum computing and sensing, space-based sensors, anti-satellite weapons, and cyber-weapons, are transforming warfare due to increased speed, precision, and lethality. As a result, contemporary strategic analysts view these technologies’ potential to enhance the effectiveness of non-nuclear weapons as a game-changer in military and strategic affairs.
Nuclear experts are divided over the contribution of emerging and disruptive technologies to nuclear deterrence. Notably, emerging technology refers to technology that has not been demonstrated; new technology refers to technology that has been recently deployed; and disruptive technologies are those that could impact deterrence and stability. Their debate centers on whether these technologies strengthen or weaken deterrence, and the experts can be grouped into two distinct schools of thought: technological deterrence optimists and technological deterrence pessimists. Technological deterrence optimists are convinced that emerging technologies will strengthen existing deterrence assumptions. According to them, nuclear-armed hypersonic missiles cannot be intercepted by an adversary’s defensive weapons before they reach their targets. The highly maneuverable hypersonic weapons can carry nuclear payloads and take unpredictable pathways to their targets to evade missile protection systems.
This certainty of offensive missile survivability in war reinforces deterrence rather than undermining it. In addition, sophisticated technologies will decrease the risk of accidents. They also enhance scanners’ potential, thereby minimizing the chances of human miscalculation. By contrast, technological deterrence pessimists believe new technologies increase the risk of undermining and weakening nuclear deterrence. They argue that cyber technologies and advanced sensor technologies augment defenses and decrease vulnerability. As a result, the principles of mutual vulnerability and survivability, which had hitherto ensured nuclear deterrence stability in nuclear-armed states, no longer have the same effect because of emerging technologies in these states’ defensive apparatus.
This compromise of mutual vulnerability and survivability increases the risk of inadvertent or accidental escalation. Cyber technologies in nuclear command and control and weapon systems could increase the risk of inadvertent escalation and nuclear first use between nuclear-armed adversaries. Specifically, these technologies deepen the “use it or lose it” dilemma. Emerging technologies can either contribute constructively to deterrence norms or undermine and weaken nuclear deterrence. Their effect on strategic stability depends on whether they intensify the balance of terror between strategic rivals and increase mutual vulnerabilities that lead to first-strike stability, crisis stability, and arms-race stability. Conversely, they stimulate four interlinked challenges to strategic stability: arms-race instability, an intensified security dilemma puzzle, a deepened stability-instability paradox, and persistent competition between strategic rivals. Accordingly, these technologies are accelerating the arms race, with direct implications for deterrence and strategic stability between India and Pakistan.
In war, gathering information about the adversary and using it effectively in operations are among the imperatives for victory. Through modern technologies such as sensors, satellites, cyber networks, logistics systems, and social media, unprecedented streams of information can be collected before and during war to anticipate the adversary’s course of action. Moreover, nanoscale and quantum technologies are advancing and broadening the frontiers of surveillance, communication, and stealth. Timely curation and transformation of data into actionable knowledge, faster than adversaries, enables effective offensive and defensive responses. Today, new technologies allow information, whether accurate or false, to spread more quickly. The daunting task is to judge its accuracy. Therefore, relying too much on technology instead of human resources is a catastrophic mistake. For instance, nuclear-armed states such as Russia, China, the U.S., and even North Korea plan to use artificial intelligence to help manage their nuclear arsenals. These technologies make cocked-pistol deterrence more accident-prone.
A faulty quantum computer or autonomous unmanned platform could misreport incoming missiles, causing a country to retaliate against its suspected attacker. Moreover, AI, machine learning, and big data analytics can significantly enhance militaries’ ability to locate, track, target, and destroy a rival’s nuclear deterrent forces—especially nuclear-armed submarines and mobile missile forces. Thus, the increased vulnerability of second-strike platforms heightens uncertainty and undermines deterrence. In summary, new technologies will play a critical role in future warfare. Their impact on deterrence stability will depend on how decision-makers update military doctrines and arsenals to incorporate them.
—The writer is Vice Chancellor of the Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
