THE US and China are two powerful countries of this century and both states compete to have a dominant position on world affairs. Perhaps if they do not engage in direct confrontation as the cost of war is huge, the US and China will entangle in indirect geopolitical combat across the world. The US and China will compete to manage international perception, bolster their soft power, attract allies and offer alternative models for development. In a new cold war, there will be a contest for geo-economic influence, maritime supremacy, technological preponderance, cyberspace dominance and leverage in global security arrangement.
With President Obama’s ‘Asia Rebalancing Strategy’, the US started its commitment to the policy of containment of China. The negotiation of the Quad security pact laid the foundation of the military aspect of the US containment policy of China. However, the Obama Administration could not pursue its policy of containing China in form and content, for the global economic recession of 2008 significantly diminished the US position to take a tough approach against China.
Nevertheless, in late 2017, President Donald Trump rolled out a new “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” policy that was aimed to bolster the US position in Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. On 18 December 2017, the Trump Administration unveiled its National Security Strategy which was based on principled realism. In National Security Strategy, the US underscored great power strategic competition as a threat to national security of the US. It was maintained in the NSS document, “Inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern in US national security.” Thus, it resulted in the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as terrorism was no longer considered as a security challenge for the US.
In 2018, President Trump launched a trade war which not only stoked tension between the US and China, but it also shattered global norms as it paved the way for neo-mercantilism and protectionism that eroded the principle of trade liberalization and neo-liberal economic order. Opposed to China’s rise, President Trump blamed China for intellectual property theft and predatory economic practices.
Moreover, in an effort to disrupt China’s clandestine activities in the US, the Department of Justice launched its ‘China Initiative’ that was aimed to prosecute perceived Chinese spies involved in economic espionage in the US. In 2020, ‘whole-of-government’ strategy was adopted and under which an enormous number of actions related to China were taken. When the Covid-19 broke out in 2020, President Trump called it ‘Chinese virus’. It created a wide chasm between the US and China.
Although the Trump Administration was destined for a new cold war against China, the Covid-19 pandemic — like 2008 economic recession—hampered the US from taking a tough approach against China. Meanwhile, China started its ‘vaccine diplomacy’ that enhanced its soft power; the US seemed to have retreated from the global scene in the aftermath of the pandemic. It appeared as if China had taken the leading position in the world.
When Joe Biden assumed the office of US President on 20 January 2021, he pursued most of the policies of his predecessor towards China. Yet, he negotiated a trilateral security pact—AUKUS—on 15 September 2021 for the Indo-Pacific region. To rival China’s grand geo-economic strategy of the Built and Road Initiative (BRI), President Biden also undertook Build Back Better World (B3W) Initiative along with G7 member countries. Besides this, pooling democracies against autocracies under ‘Democracy Summit’ was also aimed to bully China. Cementing ties with partners and allies, as President Trump damaged the US relations with its traditional allies, particularly European powers, President Biden deployed diplomacy to strengthen America’s position in the world. The US policy under Biden Administration also changed from ‘One China’ policy and ‘strategic ambiguity’ over Taiwan issue to endorsement and armament of Taiwan to get independence from China and strategic clarity to support the island state in the face of Chinese invasion. It certainly pushes the US and China on the cusp of a cold war.
Recently, despite ongoing negotiation of the US delegates under Secretary of State Antony Blinken followed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in two separate visits to China, the US and China will compete for global supremacy. Given China’s economic clout in the world, it will not accept a subordinate position in the US-led world order. Unless China’s interests are accommodated in the existing international system, it will attempt to create its own version of world order. The more US-China interests diverge, the more cracks will appear in the global order. As a result, both superpowers will strive to shape the international system on different principles and pillars. Cold war politics will return.
If the realist paradigm is a guide, the US and China will engage in bloc politics from’ loose bipolarity’ to ‘tight bipolarity’ in the foreseeable future. Both countries continue to modernize their military and develop advanced military equipment to ensure their respective security. Geo-economic statecraft appears to be deployed for geopolitical combat. They will compete for economic, military and technological supremacy. In anarchic world, competition can slide into confrontation; the world will be devastated if both superpowers get engaged in a nuclear Armageddon.
Yet, the proponents of liberal paradigm have a different position. It is believed that the US and China will cooperate on collective good problems such as climate change and to end the Ukraine war. In addition, in the age of globalization, global economy is so interwoven and states will not take sides with either power in bloc politics. Similarly, allies and business community will work as buffer between both powerful countries. Thus, cold war politics may not return in international relations as both countries are important for global economic and strategic stability.
—The writer is a strategic affairs and foreign policy analyst, based in Islamabad.
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