IN the heart of the ever-shifting geopolitical terrain, on October 7th, the Israel-Palestine war resulted in the death of numerous civilians. Israel’s imposition of a comprehensive blockade on Gaza, which Human Rights Watch has denounced as “collective punishment” and a “war crime,” poses a significant threat to the lives of the 2.3 million Palestinians confined within the beleaguered area. Israeli forces are continuously targeting innocent Palestinians in all possible inhumane ways. Russia, which has strong relations with Israel and engages in diplomatic discussions with Hamas without officially labelling it a terrorist organization, has responded to this extraordinary situation with caution and restraint. Moscow’s strategy in this conflict is centred on maintaining equilibrium and fostering amicable relations with all parties involved. President Putin’s government has criticized the use of violence by both Hamas and Israel and has attributed most of the responsibility to the United States’ destructive approach which had ignored the need for an independent Palestinian state.
Putin expressed his concern over the significant rise in Israeli and Palestinian fatalities during a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Moscow three days after Hamas’ attack. The Russian President seized the chance to reaffirm his government’s stance that establishing a Palestinian state is “essential” while simultaneously criticizing US policy and the UN role. He asserted that the US has focused on providing economic “handouts” to the Palestinians while paying little regard to their fundamental challenges related to statehood, Putin described it as a manifestation of what he called an obvious failure of Washington’s peacemaking efforts. On 13 October, Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s Ambassador to the United Nations, urged for a “humanitarian ceasefire” and proposed a resolution to the UN Security Council. The resolution explicitly denounces all violence and conflicts targeted at people and any acts of terrorism. She also criticized the western countries, accusing Washington of being accountable for the imminent conflict in the Middle East and criticizing Brussels for disregarding the Israeli air force’s assaults on civilian facilities in the Gaza Strip. The UN Security Council rejected the Russian-led draft resolution, with France, Japan, the UK and the US all voting against it. Russia attributed it to the “selfish intention of the western bloc.”
Russian officials are in discussions with counterparts from Egypt, Iraq, Lebanon and Turkey to address various aspects of the crisis. They’re focusing on the potential hazards of the conflict spreading, efforts to establish a truce and the challenges faced by Palestinian refugees. Russia’s goal is to promote stability in the Israel-Palestine region, prevent further loss of life and push for a UN Security Council resolution that mandates compliance by the conflict parties. Russia also seeks to mediate between Israel and Hamas, emphasizing the importance of a two-state solution, aligning with Arab states and the international community. This is part of Russia’s efforts to showcase its global influence, especially in the Middle East, as an alternative to the United States, while supporting the Palestinian cause.
Moscow is concerned about the possibility of this crisis spreading to other states in the Middle East, such as Lebanon and Syria. In the event of a full-scale conflict between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel, it is likely that a significant number of Hezbollah fighters would have to withdraw from Syria and return to Lebanon. Given these conditions, the Assad regime’s grip on power may be compromised due to the multitude of economic challenges and social unrest afflicting Syria. This implies that Russia would assume a larger responsibility in terms of supporting the Syrian regime. In the backdrop of the Ukraine War, Moscow does not desire such a burden.
Russia has consistently maintained strong relationships with both Israel and Iran. The potential impact of a direct military conflict between Israel and Iran on Moscow’s relations with both countries is a legitimate concern. Russia aims to avoid being forced to choose between its alliances. In case of a larger clash, Moscow would closely monitor its implications on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The Kremlin prioritizes peace and stability in the Gulf due to its reliance on the relationship with Riyadh for energy policies and the UAE’s role in countering economic pressure from the West. The consequences of an open conflict on GCC States’ security are unpredictable and Moscow must consider these concerns.
Assessing the impact of the Israel-Palestine conflict on Russia’s national interests is challenging. It’s uncertain whether the violence will ultimately benefit or hinder Russia’s interests. Putin emphasizes the need to swiftly end the war and calls on both Israeli Government and Hamas not to target civilians, warning of serious implications if escalation occurs. The effects of the Hamas-Israel issue on Moscow’s foreign policy require further examination as the situation evolves. Nevertheless, Moscow is prepared to act as a mediator in the Middle East to find a long-term solution to the Palestinian cause.
—The writer is PhD Scholar International Relations, based in Islamabad.
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