THE initiation of peace talks between the United States and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, is an achievement itself but there is an overwhelming perception that a comprehensive accord seems to be a Herculean task given total anti-peace posture adopted by the Jewish State.
Diplomatic circles and analysts opine that despite the positive attitude demonstrated by the United States and Iran, the outcome might not reflect universal aspirations for an understanding that forms a basis for a durable peace and security in the region as Israeli actions are sowing seeds for perennial conflict in the volatile region.
Israeli conspiracies against the peace moves and expansionist designs notwithstanding, the Iran war has set in motion an irreversible process that will culminate in total transformation of the existing world order and Tel Aviv might not enjoy the same level of leverage it previously had to move towards realization of its dream of ‘Greater Israel’. The United States and Israel tested the will of the global community by committing grave violation of the temporary ceasefire agreement as Tel Aviv, with tacit understanding of Washington, intensified devastating attacks on Lebanon, killing hundreds, injuring thousands and destroying civilian infrastructure and homes on the false pretext that Lebanon was not included in the ceasefire arrangement. The duo was under the wrong impression that, as before, they can get away with their own interpretation of the ceasefire understanding but the entire world condemned the extreme provocation terming it a clear violation of the ceasefire. More importantly, Tehran strictly maintained its leverage of the Strait of Hormuz and together with the concerns expressed by mediators; this strategy forced Washington to rein in Tel Aviv to some extent, fearing total derailment of the dialogue process. The Israeli aggression against Lebanon and occupation of its territory is not a question of ‘scaling back’ or keeping it at low key as President Trump claimed after talking to Netanyahu but respect for ceasefire and territorial integrity of the country. Condemnatory statements across the globe are a loud message that the world has changed and leaders and opinion-makers have picked up courage to call a spade a spade. Therefore, the policy of pressure tactics and bullying is unlikely to give you the kind of walk over you are searching for and prudence demands realistic attitude should be adopted to make the process of dialogue fateful. It is good to hear from President Trump that he was optimistic about a peace deal with Iran but practical measures speak more loudly than verbal rhetoric. The goal of a durable peace in the Middle-East can only be achieved if the superpower harmonizes its words and deeds and discards the policy of protecting illegitimate Jewish interests at all costs. It would be naïve to expect Iran to sign on an accord that does not take care of the interests of its aligned groups that came out for its support during crucial moments. Similarly, a free for all navigation through Strait of Hormuz also seems to be a past luxury and any new arrangement should reflect ground realities. Again, in the face of threats Iran received (end of a civilization tonight, bombing to the Stone Age and Plants and Bridges Day), it will be a major concession if Iran agrees not to have a nuclear bomb. Security, solidarity and territorial integrity being prime concerns of any state – big or small – Iran is unlikely to accept limits on its missile programme as missiles and drones offered effective counter response to existential threats. It is also a reality that Iran’s hostile posture vis-à-vis its neighbouring Gulf countries has proved to be one of the major factors of instability and uncertainty in the region. Fears of these countries strengthened as Iran repeatedly attacked targets in Gulf countries and from now onwards they too will be forced to spend significantly on their defence, starting an arms race in the region. Iran needs to review its policy towards neighbouring countries, especially when they showed remarkable patience and restraint in the face of extreme provocations. In a welcome development, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan had a telephonic conversation with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi exchanging views on ways and means to reduce tension and help restore security and stability in the region. Islamabad talks should also address security concerns of the Gulf countries. Hopefully, a clearer picture would emerge when dust settles in Tehran after elimination of its top leadership during US/Israeli air strikes.
