Dr Mushaiyada Mairaj
GLOBAL trade is changing in today’s turbulent geopolitical climate, not from the power of markets but from the power of missiles.
Shipping routes have never been so disrupted, from the war in Ukraine to escalating tensions in the Middle East, including the Red Sea crisis and concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. As sea lanes become conflict zones, ports outside traditional routes are experiencing unexpected surges. Karachi Port, situated on the periphery of these conflicts yet close to major sea trade routes, has become an inadvertent beneficiary of altered shipping patterns.
The scale of disruption is unprecedented. Shipping lines have increasingly abandoned the Suez Canal route, which previously handled 12-15 percent of global trade, due to attacks on vessels in the Red Sea since late 2023. Nearly three-quarters of traffic has been rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days and approximately 4,500 nautical miles to voyages. Fuel costs have increased by up to 33 percent per voyage, freight rates have risen sharply, and insurance premiums for vessels crossing conflict zones have surged.
The effects extend beyond shipping lanes. Supply chains have been disrupted, shipments of key commodities to Europe delayed, Asian exporters have reported container shortages, and African ports have experienced unplanned congestion due to limited bunkering and transshipment alternatives. Against this backdrop, Karachi Port’s growth has been remarkable. It was expected to handle approximately 8,300 TEUs of transshipment traffic in 2025. Yet within the first 24 days of March 2026, it had already processed around 8,860 containers, surpassing the previous annual capacity in less than a month.
This upswing is not accidental. Karachi lies largely outside conflict zones while remaining close to major shipping lanes. Structural changes in regional logistics are evident in new feeder services connecting Karachi with hubs such as Fujairah, Khor Fakkan and Salalah. These developments indicate that shipping companies are actively experimenting with alternative routes and transshipment options.
However, this sudden growth has also exposed significant weaknesses. Infrastructure constraints are reflected in traffic congestion, container delays and vessel waiting times. Karachi’s throughput remains considerably lower than major regional competitors such as Jebel Ali and Salalah. Vessel turnaround time at Karachi averages between 2.5 and 3 days, while ports such as Singapore and Dubai typically complete turnaround within 24 hours. Customs clearance in Pakistan can take 3-5 days, compared with less than 48 hours in more efficient regional systems.
These inefficiencies threaten Karachi’s attractiveness as a long-term transshipment centre. Therefore, the transformation of Karachi Port Trust must be holistic, covering infrastructure upgrading, digitalization, competitive pricing, hinterland connectivity, maritime security, partnerships and policy stability. Infrastructure development should focus on strengthening terminals, deepening berths and modernizing cargo-handling equipment to accommodate increasing volumes without congestion. Critical dredging projects are also required to enable the handling of mega-container ships exceeding 18,000 TEUs in capacity.
Digital transformation offers another major opportunity. Ports such as Rotterdam and Singapore have successfully integrated Port Community Systems, blockchain-based documentation and real-time cargo tracking. These innovations have reduced clearance times by as much as 40 percent while improving operational reliability. Karachi can benefit substantially from adopting similar technologies. Competitive tariffs are equally important. Lower transshipment rates and long-term contracts with performance-based incentives could attract major shipping lines, much as Colombo successfully did when establishing itself as South Asia’s leading transshipment hub. Increasing hinterland connectivity through road and rail integration with CPEC corridors is also essential. Such connectivity would facilitate the smooth movement of goods to industrial zones and prevent Karachi from becoming a logistical bottleneck.
Maritime security remains another critical requirement. Enhanced surveillance, stronger regional naval coordination and improved risk-management mechanisms are necessary to ensure Karachi continues to be viewed as a safe and reliable port. Cooperation between the Pakistan Navy and regional partners can play a significant role in maintaining this perception. Strategic partnerships with major global shipping companies, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, should also be encouraged through dedicated terminal arrangements and long-term operational agreements. These partnerships can help transform temporary rerouting decisions into lasting commercial commitments.
Most importantly, policy stability and simplification are essential. Predictable regulations, accelerated customs procedures and the implementation of an effective one-window system would strengthen investor confidence and build trust among international operators. In the past, policy uncertainty has undermined confidence in Pakistani ports and discouraged long-term investment.
Karachi Port now stands at a critical juncture. Its sudden relevance, driven largely by geopolitical turmoil, may fade if global trade routes eventually return to normal. Alternatively, it could mark a lasting shift in Pakistan’s position within global maritime commerce. However, increased traffic alone is not enough. Efficiency, reliability and resilience will ultimately determine the port’s long-term competitiveness.
Pakistan’s policymakers, therefore, face an important choice. They can capitalize on the current momentum by accelerating reforms and strengthening port infrastructure or they can risk losing this opportunity when shipping traffic reverts to traditional routes.
The way forward requires sustained investment in infrastructure, digitalization, competitive tariffs, improved hinterland connectivity, stronger maritime security and long-term cooperation with international shipping companies. The impact of conflict on maritime routes often extends far beyond trade itself. Whether Karachi’s recent growth proves to be a temporary windfall or the foundation of Pakistan’s sustainable competitiveness in global trade will depend on its ability to transform crisis into strategic advantage. The stakes are high. Karachi may remain merely a temporary stop on disrupted shipping routes or it may emerge as a strong anchor of Pakistan’s economic future.
—The writer is Research Fellow, KPT Chair, National Institute of Maritime Affairs (NIMA), Karachi.
