Sultan M Hali
JAPANESE Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s resignation caught the political establishment by surprise and set off a flurry of speculation about his successor. As the longest-serving prime minister in Japan’s history, Abe’s tenure faced numerous challenges. He caused grief to neighbours China and Korea and stirred the cauldron of shifting security and economic environment in the Indo-Pacific and has left domestic and foreign policy imbroglios for his successor. Last month Shinzo Abe announced his resignation for reasons of ill health. Abe said he did not want his illness to get in the way of decision making, and apologized to the Japanese people for failing to complete his term in office. The 65-year-old has suffered for many years from ulcerative colitis, an inflammatory bowel disease, but he said his condition had worsened recently.
During his tenure as Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe deliberately hurt the feelings of China and South Korea by visiting Yasukuni Shrine that honours Japan’s war dead, including convicted war criminals, who had wreaked havoc in China and Korea. Shinzo Abe rationalized that his visit to Yasukuni was an anti-war gesture, which is farcical. China had called the visit “absolutely unacceptable to the Chinese people”, and Seoul expressed “regret and anger”. They regard Yasukuni as a symbol of Tokyo’s aggression during World War Two, when Japan occupied large parts of China and the Korean peninsula. Although after his visit, Japanese Foreign Ministry tried spin doctoring that the visit was a private one but Shinzo Abe’s visits to the controversial shrine have been telecast live. Japan had made an unwritten agreement with China in the 1970s that serving leaders would not visit the shrine but Abe deliberately flouted the tacit understanding.
Yasukuni Shrine commemorates some 2.5 million Japanese men, women and children who have died in wars but the souls of hundreds of convicted WW2 criminals are also enshrined there. Fourteen Class A war criminals – those who were involved in planning the war – are among those honoured. They include war-time leader General Hideki Tojo, who was executed for war crimes in 1948. Shinzo Abe’s grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was Minister of Industry for much of the war. He was arrested after Japan’s surrender but was never charged and went on to serve as prime minister. Meanwhile, Japan’s governing party has elected Yoshihide Suga as its new leader to succeed Shinzo Abe. Mr Suga, 71, serves as chief cabinet secretary in the current administration and was widely expected to win. He is considered a close ally of Mr. Abe and is likely to continue his predecessor’s policies. Mr Suga won the vote for the presidency of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) by a large margin, taking 377 of a total of 534 votes from lawmakers and regional representatives.
He saw off two other contenders – Fumio Kishida, a former Foreign Minister, and Shigeru Ishiba, a former LDP Secretary General and one time Defence Minister. Taking over mid-term, Mr Suga is expected to stay in post until elections due in September 2021. Born to a family of strawberry farmers, Mr Suga is a veteran politician and was chosen because he was considered as the best ‘continuity’ candidate who would follow the same path as Shinzo Abe. Suga San has a reputation of efficiency and practicality, although some political pundits perceive the septuagenarian politician to be cautious and sluggish. One of his most prominent appearances recently was during the transition from Emperor Akihito, who abdicated, to his son Naruhito in 2019. It fell to Suga San to unveil the name of the new Reiwa era to the Japanese and global public. Yet, while he was the favourite to clinch the LDP leadership after Shinzo Abe’s resignation, it is much less clear whether he will lead the party in next year’s general election. Observers suggest that by then, the party dynamic could shift to put a more vibrant man at the helm who can reach a wider general electorate.
Japanese people will feel relieved that Mr Suga has promised to continue with “Abenomics”, Shinzo Abe’s signature economic policy that was designed to stimulate the world’s third biggest economy through monetary easing, fiscal spending and structural reforms. But like his predecessor he will first need to tackle the pressing demands of the coronavirus pandemic. Ahead of his election Suga had pledged to expand Covid-19 testing and source vaccines for Japan by the first half of 2021. He also said he would raise the minimum wage, promote agricultural reforms and boost tourism. On foreign policy, too, he is expected to follow in Shinzo Abe’s footsteps, prioritizing Japan’s long-running alliance with the US while also maintaining stable relations with China. Under Abe’s premiership, on 24 March 2020, the Japanese government approved new school textbooks renewing the claim that Senkaku Islands are Japan’s inherent territory although China has genuine ownership of the islands known as the Diaoyu its affiliated islands.
Currently Japan is struggling with the global pandemic COVID-19, which has affected Japanese economy adversely. Shinzo Abe’s trademark kickstarting the economy had failed, plunging the once economic giant into recession and gloom. Amidst the plethora of unfinished agendas, Shinzo Abe also leaves behind the government’s plans to reform the post-war pacifist constitution. Abe wanted to change a section in the constitution to formally recognize Japan’s military, which is currently called the Self Defence Force and is essentially barred from participating in any international military mandates. Suga San has his work cut out for him.
—The writer is retired PAF Group Captain and a TV talk show host.
