ISRAEL’S offensive against Hamas continues with deadly bombardment of the enclave. More than 19,000 civilians have been killed thus far. The UN failed to halt the war as the US vetoed a UN resolution calling for immediate ceasefire. Despite criticism, the US is supporting Israel’s war that has resulted in the destruction of Gaza and annihilation of civilian population. The US ‘rock-solid’ support to Israel in its deadly bombardment of Gaza makes Washington complicit in the war crimes. In fact, it is the flagrant violation of humanitarian principles and the International Law as Israel appears to be basking in the diplomatic and strategic sunshine of the US to ramp up its disproportionate attack in the name of ‘self-defence’.
The US ‘rock-solid’ support to Israel in the war will further erode the US standing in Global South. Israel’s war crimes significantly compromise the credibility of the US-led rules-based international order. It will eventually bolster China’s regional and global standing with elevating its diplomatic and political stature. For short-term interests and partisan politics in the US, President Joe Biden wants to win another term in the 2024 elections as the Jews population can influence the electoral turnouts. In the long run, the US unwavering support of Israel’s genocidal war will fade the former’s geopolitical and diplomatic standing in the world. For sure, China will be the winner of the US policy folly. Washington will be the ultimate loser of Israel’s war. Many strategic analysts believe that the US’ full backing of Israel’s genocidal war could be the ‘final blow to the American-led global order’. Military entanglement in the Middle East will not only bamboozle the US’ geopolitical calculus but could result in petering out its stranglehold on the region and the world in the near future.
Indeed, Hamas attack on Israel appears to be a foreign policy setback for the Biden Administration. The US policy of ‘great bargain’ in the Middle East seems to have fizzled out. Despite policy shift to ‘pivot Asia’ or to manage great powers which are the greatest strategic challenge to its power position, the US will be dragged into the geopolitical entanglement of the Middle East. Pentagon has been engaged in creating a new front of insecurity for the European powers by instigating Ukraine war to ‘unite the divided’ Europe and rally them around against rising power China, but the Israel war has diverted the attention.
Hamas attack foiled the US great bargain to normalize Saudi-Israel relations, which was aimed to dilute the salience of Saudi-Iran rapprochement. Given the growing public opinion against Israel’s war, neither the US succeeds in its new policy shift to contain China through creating insecurity for Europe and negotiating a deal to bring Saudi Arabia and Israel closer in the Middle East, nor does Israel achieve its diplomatic triumph to get recognition in the region as it has been striving hard for decades. Thus, Hamas attack reversed the regional geopolitical dynamics and infused a new spirit to the Palestine cause.
Against this backdrop, Hamas attack was the culmination of changing regional geopolitics and growing diplomatic intrusion of Israel into the economic and strategic calculus of Muslim countries. It prompted Hamas to launch the attack to deflect the regional geopolitical winds toits favour. Yet, the main contributing factor is Israel’s perpetual subjugation of Palestinians and occupation of their territory. According to Antony Best in the book ‘International History of the Twentieth Century and beyond’, “The inconclusive outcome set in motion dynamics which would lead to further wars such as Israel’s search for recognition and security which propelled it to adopt an aggressive defensive policy grounded in retaliation, pre-emption and the expansion of its strategic depth. The Palestinians, too, saw violence as the only option. Disappointed and betrayed by Israel, the Arab states and the international community, they embarked upon the road of armed struggle, guerrilla warfare and terrorism in their quest for statehood.”
As war against Hamas continues, civilian population will remain the primary target of Israel to coerce Hamas for strategic surrender. Nevertheless, the more Israel prolongs its offensive in Gaza, the greater possibility of war’s spilling into the entire region. The reported rocket attack at the US mission in Baghdad may increase the risk of escalation of the war in the region. The US support of Israel’s war and frequent veto of the UNSC resolutions will create horrendous repercussions because the war may escalate in the region, thereby bringing not only the regional countries, but the US itself into the fold of war.
It is obvious that finite time and bounded rationality along with fog of information can affect policy decisions during crisis, so there is growing risk of accidental or inadvertent escalation of the war. Even though Israel is more focused on the annihilation of Hamas through vertical escalation of the war with offensive weapons, presence of far-right and hawkish decision-makers in the Knesset can increase the danger of deliberate or horizontal escalation of war in the entire region. As far as the geopolitical ramifications of Israel’s war are concerned, nuclearization of Iran would be the most obvious outcome. Recently, Iran termed the revival of the nuclear deal as ‘useless’. It shows that Iran—despite having latent deterrence—will develop nuclear weapons to alter the regional strategic environment.
The more Israel prolongs its war, the greater danger of its strategic exhaustion in the long run. Perhaps, Israel may win against Hamas at this moment but this war will result in strategic overstretch leading to strategic exhaustion in the future. Israel would not be in a position to battle against regional countries—especially Iran—because this war will alter the regional security landscape leading to nuclearization of Iran. Realistically speaking, this war will create dreadful strategic backlash for Israel in the future. —Concluded.
—The writer is a strategic affairs and foreign policy analyst, based in Islamabad.
Email: [email protected]
views expressed are writer’s own.
