AS outlined in the 2025 US National Security Strategy, the United States is stepping back from its role as the ‘primary security provider’ across the Gulf–Red Sea–Mediterranean arc. Washington is signalling that key regional partners must assume a larger share of security responsibilities—deliberately opening space for a ‘secondary security provider’. The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy signals a shift from ‘direct security provision to security orchestration’. Washington wants capable regional actors to absorb operational burden while the U.S. retains escalation control, ISR dominance, and alliance management.
Lo and behold, from an intelligence and strategic standpoint, this creates a vacuum that will not remain empty. Nature abhors vacuums and this vacuum will be filed by states that can project credibility, stabilise corridors, and deploy militaries trusted to operate quietly, professionally, and predictably. Remember, in geopolitics, absence is never neutral; it is an invitation.
To be certain, eligibility depends on discipline. Pakistan is not automatically in this category — but it is eligible. Eligibility revolves around two factors: command clarity and predictable execution. Pakistan has the manpower, geography, and operational experience to qualify.
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) looks for two things above all else: command clarity and policy continuity. He has consistently prioritised strong institutions over mass politics. MBZ’s capital follows structure, not sentiment. Accordingly, MBZ concentrates investment in energy, ports, and real estate. He has committed roughly $40 billion to Egypt, $50 billion to Turkey, and $14 billion to Indonesia.
MBZ does not issue invitations in speeches or communiqués. He does so by sequencing: first intelligence comfort, then security reassurance, and only then capital. In MBZ’s system, money is the signal that trust has already been granted.
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s deepest fear has always been policy reversal after handshakes. Yes, eligibility can be lost as easily as it is earned. For MBZ, unpredictability is not noise—it is risk. And risk, in his calculus, is always priced out. Pakistan’s role in the Gulf-Red Sea-Mediterranean Arc will not be force projection but reassurance—intelligence, training and quiet stabilisation. In today’s Middle East, money follows order—and order follows those who can deliver security without noise. The question is whether Pakistan is prepared to be that kind of power.
—The writer is a journalist and political analyst.
