Hassam Ahmed Siddiqi
DEVELOPMENTS in Afghan peace process are far from ideal as Afghan government and Afghan Taliban are still negotiating the procedural rules for the intra-Afghan dialogue. It took seven months for both sides to release decided number of prisoners in US-Taliban agreement, a process which was scheduled to be completed in ten days. Violence in Afghanistan is increasing with each passing day as Afghan forces and Taliban are fighting in 26 provinces of the country. Announcement of US President Donald Trump to further minimize the number of troops in Afghanistan before Christmas indicates US impulsiveness to withdraw from Afghanistan as soon as possible.
Afghanistan has been a zone of conflict for the last four decades. Almost third generation is witnessing the conflict and common people just to dream for peace. Assessing a chain of events during last four decades, it can be said that history is about to repeat itself in Afghanistan. US support to Pakistan for the creation of Mujahideen during Soviet-Afghan war turned out to be the worst nightmare for Pakistan as well as Afghanistan. Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 accomplished US interests in the region and hence it withdrew its support for Pakistan. Civil war in Afghanistan broke out which ended in Taliban claiming the power. Recent chain of events in Afghanistan seem no different taking over despite having complete international support. Afghan government has very minimal authority on ground. Taliban are controlling the major portion of Afghanistan and current Afghan government might not be able to govern for more than a month, if they are not supported by the international community. Rift between the local communities as well as transnational terrorist groups based in Afghanistan will further escalate, after the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.
Moreover, the emergence of Taliban as de-facto rulers of Afghanistan is a possibility which cannot and should not be ignored by the regional stakeholders of the Afghan conflict, particularly Pakistan. It is an acknowledged fact that Pakistan has played a pivotal role in the Afghan peace process and it holds certain influence over Taliban, however it also needs to be highlighted that Taliban have evolved during last four decades. Taliban of today are politically and diplomatically mature enough to be recognized as major non-state actor in Afghanistan. Dealing with today’s Taliban leadership is much more tactful and delicate, then dealing with them during 1990s and hence Pakistan needs to strategically plan its affairs with Afghanistan in the future.
The profound sense of uncertainty looms large in Afghanistan. Increasing violence has almost disrupted the normal life. Future of the country is completely dependent on intra-Afghan talks between Afghan Taliban and Afghan government, however a political settlement between the two sides is going to take much more time than what was expected at the time of signing the US-Taliban deal in February early this year. In the meantime, US forces are expected to leave Afghanistan as results of presidential elections in United States might not change the US policy for Afghanistan. President Donald Trump has categorically announced the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan while Joe Biden has announced that if he is elected as the President of United States, he would maintain a small US troops presence in Afghanistan.
Reportedly, around 2500 US soldiers lost their lives during last two decades while the cost of war according to US Department of Defence since 2001 has been around $882 billion dollars. United States miserably failed to achieve its objectives in Afghanistan as the country is being left in the state of misery, chaos and multidimensional conflict. Warlords, transnational militant groups, Taliban and Afghan government will continue to fight for power in Afghanistan while a common Afghan citizen will continue to suffer. Terrorism and extremism have spread more exponentially, rather evolved as a systematic phenomenon. Pakistan needs to holistically assess its Afghan policy as well as its relations with the Afghan Taliban for the near future, as a conflict or civil war in Afghanistan will have serious consequences for Pakistan.
—The writer works at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS).
