ACCORDING to many international media outlets the US is likely to attack Iran through integrated airstrikes within next few days due to which ground situation in Tehran is very tense.
It has already started its diplomatic manoeuvrings which seems to be little bit late and insufficient securing any substantial political support from international community and strategic partners especially from the Western countries because of ongoing mass protests throughout Iran.
However, the Chinese FM Wang Yi held a phone conversation with Iranian FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi and conveyed that Chinese side believed Iranian government and people will stand united, overcome difficulties, maintain national stability, and safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. During the telephonic conversation, he hoped that all parties would cherish peace, exercise restraint, and resolve differences through dialogue. His desire to play a constructive role in this endeavour is commendable.
It seems that ongoing mass protest has wrecked administrative and socio-politico structure of Iran because of largely sponsored violent processions by many countries. The arrest of many Mossad and RAW agents and sleeper cells from different parts of Iran clearly confirms the activation of CIA operators inside Iran. Unfortunately, it also confirms Iran’s inability to eradicate a well-established spy system and undercover networks of Israeli, Indian agents in its country. Moreover, Iran’s undue political reliance on India has once again proved faulty and destructive for its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Initially the ongoing marches have domestic reasons of severe inflation, unprecedented deprecation of Iranian currency, weakening of purchasing power, unemployment and increase in poverty geared the business community and common people to stand against the authorities for some financial relief which was hijacked by the international power brokers through their already installed sleeper cells and turned the composition by specifically attacking and assassinating government’s buildings and apparatus. Hence delay in responding to the emerging situation through any substantial financial & economic relief (grant of $7 to each Iranian) proved lethal and campaign spread in the entire country.
It appears that after the US airstrikes during 2025 and Iran’s war with Israel there has been an in-house struggle for power and all main stakeholders allegedly are at war within the existing system. There are many international published reports which clearly indicate an evolutionary change in the political and supra-religious-politico orbit. Moreover, the invisible power struggle and furtive games of dominance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the traditional Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Artesh) vividly reflect shifting of real power and command structure in Iran. Thus delay in nomination and election of succession of incumbent Khamenei and rectification of structural power tussle between IRGC and Artesh further weakened Iranian governance model.
It fears that the US will strike on IRGC and target some political leadership to achieve its geopolitical and geostrategic goals in the days to come. It would be a decisive airstrike and missile attack from the sea. Nevertheless, the ultimate goal of Change of Regime would not be easy to achieve but it fears that socio-economic and national politics of Iran would be further worsen during 2026 and beyond.
Despite all humours there are very limited chances that Iran would be disintegrated into different parts dominated by Azeri, Kurd, Sistan and other Gulf supported geographical divisions. It would be a worse scenario that would also not be good for the Middle East region. Additionally, the holy alliance of the US and Israel are going to change the geopolitical landscape of Iran by striking down its military capabilities; however, the option of using boots on ground would not be realistic.
Unfortunately, Iran’s policy makers remained slow and irresponsible to make their a just and peaceful narrative even after US airstrike and war with Israel at the international level. They had no concrete policy response against sponsored speculations of building the alleged Nuclear Weapons. Thus Iran’s political isolation and policy of constant disengagement internationally proved terminal for its current political isolation spending its precious time and energies merely to protect Hezbollah and Hamas with significant financial, military, and political aid as a pillar of its foreign policy in the region.
In summary, it seems that Iran’s current espionage model has been superseded by Mossad, CIA and RAW spies fully operationalized in Iran instigating and provoking common Iranians to stand against the current regime for real change. Even its digital intelligence marketing could not achieve any success in Israel and Middle East and Tel Aviv’s hot pursuits to completely destroy Hezbollah and Hamas proved successful, further fading Iran’s regional outreach. Ultimately Iran’s spy vs spy playbook doctrine proved ineffective to counter clandestine activities of Mossad, CIA and RAW.
Diplomatically, the foreign ministry of Iran and its political leadership did not channelize its resources to secure support even from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in which China and Russia have dominance. It seems that Iran’s ongoing turmoil has very severe socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic spillover repercussions in the Middle East and beyond. Thus the military establishment and political leadership of Pakistan should be more vigilant and responsive to Iran’s unfolding disorder. Any Israeli supported and US sponsored setup in Tehran would be potentially dangerous for Pakistan in the days to come.
The fall of Maduro has already broken the backbone of the Global South and collapse of Iran (if any) would be a double sword for China and Russia in the days to come in terms of losing a strategic ally, BRI member, supplier of oil & gas and connecting hub. Thus the wise decision of Beijing and Moscow would also be important this time. The writer submits that gearing and assuring of equal economic opportunity, financial gains from oil, personal freedom and political readjustment would be the first giant step towards normalizing the political chaos because every trait even blind submission has also its limitation which needs to be changed according to wishes of people.
—The writer is President, the Centre for Knowledge and Public Policy, Regional Expert: China, CPEC, BRI & World Affairs.
