THE blatant and naked aggression of Israel with the help of a superpower against Iran has not only shocked the world but has once again showed the world that the maxim- might is right is still the road which aggressors choose, if and when it suits them.
Historians believe that history always repeats itself. Rewind to 2001-false and manufactured rhetoric which resulted in invasion of Iraq on the false and concocted pretext of possessing weapons of mass destruction followed by bombing of Afghanistan on spreading terrorism and killing of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians-young and old, children and women- for no fault of theirs, was pure and simple unprovoked aggression and perhaps the worst crime, ever committed after the Nazi invasion in 2nd World War.
Result — the country was devastated, its economy ruined, political stability disappeared and chaos and sectarian conflicts destroyed a once stable and thriving nation. The aim was to control oil and remove a person who stood like a rock against the perceived designs of Israel and the superpowers. As if this was not enough, the same game was played in Libya and Gaddafi was removed. Again, the purpose was to control Libyan oil, which they are successfully managing today. Now, the same drama is being staged and repeated in Iran on the pretext of possessing a nuclear arsenal. Israel started bombing Iran and reportedly targeted its supreme leadership while Iran was engaged in peace talks. They intended to exploit public dissent in Iran, but little did they realize that such actions would instead unify the whole country. History shows what the axis of Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld did in Iraq.
US-Israel war with Iran in 2026 has resulted in massive regional instability, over 1,500 reported deaths, widespread displacement and severe global economic shocks, including a surge in oil prices to over $100/barrel. The conflict has disrupted 20% of global oil/gas supply, shuttered the Strait of Hormuz and damaged key infrastructure, prompting humanitarian crises and global inflation fears. The War would leave consumers and businesses worldwide weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the conflict, which is now over a month old, ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics and elevated risks to shipping. The outlook poses a global economic threat and a political vulnerability for US President Donald Trump leading into the midterm elections, with voters sensitive to energy bills and unfavourable to foreign entanglements.
Global oil prices have surged by more than 25 percent since the start of the war, driving up fuel prices for consumers worldwide. The national average petrol price in USA reached $4 per gallon , according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), rising by almost half a Dollar in just one week, over the past week. Goldman Sachs warned oil prices have now climbed above $100 per barrel as the shipping disruptions continue. US crude oil settled at just below $91 per barrel on last week – its largest weekly gain on record in data dating back to 1983, indicating prices could continue to rise.
“The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows,” JP Morgan analysts said earlier this week. According to the Reuters news agency the persistent supply chain disruptions are bound to push the oil prices up, as long as the War continues and Strait of Hormuz through which more than 20% Oil passes for global consumption, remains closed. The conflict has already led to the suspension of about a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as Tehran watches and monitors the ships in the vital Strait of Hormuz between its shores and Oman and attacks energy infrastructure across the region on countries where USA has bases.
A nearly complete shutdown of the strait means the region’s top oil producers – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait – have had to suspend shipments of as much as 140 million barrels of oil – equal to about 1.4 days of global demand – to global refiners. More than 80 percent of global trade moves by sea, according to the World Bank, meaning disruptions in the waterway could increase freight costs and delay deliveries of goods.
The War would bring severe economic consequences for developing countries. Small states which depend on maritime trade “risk being pulled into deeper economic uncertainty as external shocks ripple across the region and Africa. Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said last week that his country’s economy was in a “state of near-emergency”, warning of growing inflation.
As a result of these developments, oil and gas storage at facilities in the Gulf is rapidly filling, forcing oilfields in Iraq and Kuwait to cut production, with the UAE likely to follow, analysts and traders told Reuters. A source with a state oil company warned that if vessels do not arrive soon, widespread shutdowns may occur. Qatar declared force majeure on its large volumes of gas exports after Iranian drone attacks and it may take at least a month to return to normal production. Qatar supplies 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG). Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal has also closed due to attacks, with no details on damage. All this translates into severe supply disruptions and rising global oil prices, creating an economic dilemma. Economists warn this may lead to higher prices, slower growth, inflation and increasing poverty in developing countries.
—The writer is Former Civil Servant and Consultant (ILO) & International Organisation for Migration and author of seven books.
