THE post–Cold War security order is unravelling and intersecting global crises have made security central to policymaking.
Rivalries once confined to specific regions now intersect, reshaping conflicts, alliances, and strategic calculations worldwide. Power politics has returned openly, with immediate consequences. Unexpected developments, from Venezuela to Greenland, and shifting partnerships unsettle Washington, Brussels, and NATO capitals. Canada’s initiative of promoting a “new strategic partnership” with China underscores shifting assumptions as Global South and multipolar actors watch power centres realign.
This turbulence reflects a broader recalibration of US strategy as Washington confronts the erosion of its dominance. The Indo-Pacific has emerged as the primary arena of economic, technological, and ideological competition. Often overlooked in Indo-Pacific narratives, Pakistan sits close to these fault lines. Located at the crossroads of South Asia, the Middle East, and the Indian Ocean, Islamabad cannot treat these shifts as distant. Evolving alliances and increasingly conditional partnerships quietly reshape Pakistan’s security environment, signalling a subtler but systemic form of influence.
The Indo-Pacific as the centre of global power: Stretching from East Africa to the Pacific Americas, the Indo-Pacific is the epicentre of global power politics, controlling much of the world’s trade, energy flows, and digital connectivity. Maritime chokepoints in the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and the South China Sea are central to economic stability and influence. The shift from “Asia-Pacific” to “Indo-Pacific” is more than semantic. It integrates South Asia and the Indian Ocean into a single strategic theatre, pulling Pakistan’s neighbourhood into intensifying US-China rivalry. US strategy and regional implications: The United States has made the Indo-Pacific its primary strategic priority, aiming to prevent a rival regional hegemony while sustaining its global role. Its approach combines military presence, strengthened alliances and selective economic engagement. Deepening ties with India and Southeast Asia, anchored in multilateral defence and economic cooperation, enhance forward presence, interoperability and maritime security. Although framed as inclusive, US strategy is primarily driven by competition with China, with India emerging as Washington’s key partner in South Asia. India’s growing conventional and maritime capabilities, supported through long-term defence agreements, enhance its regional advantage over Pakistan, increasing risks of marginalization and misperception.
China’s approach: connectivity and strategic depth: China sees the Indo-Pacific framework as a US-led attempt to contain its rise. Rejecting bloc politics, Beijing advocates an inclusive regional order focused on economic development, non-exclusive security arrangements and ASEAN-centred multilateralism. Its objectives are to avoid encirclement, secure maritime trade routes, and limit vulnerability to external pressure. Pakistan is central to China’s strategy. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) provides western access to the Indian Ocean, enhancing strategic depth while embedding Pakistan in Beijing’s long-term calculus. Expanding economic influence, strengthening deterrence, and promoting diplomatic outreach are Beijing’s three main pillars, with Islamabad positioned as both a partner and a strategic conduit.
US-India strategic convergence and the regional balance: Despite India showcasing its strategic autonomy, expanding US-India defence cooperation has become central to South Asian and Indian Ocean security dynamics, overlooking the security interests of other regional states. Enhanced collaboration strengthens India’s conventional and maritime capabilities, reinforcing its role as a US-aligned partner in the Indo-Pacific. This trajectory signals durable alignment despite India’s continued reliance on Russian platforms. Shared concerns over China’s rise remain the principal catalyst. India’s closer alignment with US security frameworks intensifies its advantage over Pakistan, raising risks of marginalization, misperception and conflict escalation. Regional geopolitical crises present an additional dimension for forecasting future scenarios. Bangladesh’s changing posture, reflected in cooling ties with India and growing overtures toward Pakistan, is particularly noteworthy. Pakistan’s strategic position: Pakistan faces three simultaneous pressures: intensifying US-China competition, enduring rivalry with India, and deepening security interdependence with China. While China remains Pakistan’s principal partner, Islamabad has pursued pragmatic engagement with the US, limited outreach to Russia, and participation in forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. These efforts reflect an attempt to navigate a multipolar order without overt bloc alignment. However, Pakistan’s exclusion from emerging Indo-Pacific security frameworks limits its influence over regional norms and institutional outcomes. India’s alignment with US security architectures, coupled with rapid defence modernization, further narrows Islamabad’s strategic options.
Security implications: The evolving Indo-Pacific landscape presents persistent security challenges, including heightened crisis instability, maritime pressures, strategic dependence, and political marginalization. The US attempt for a regime change in Iran and the intersection of regional competition with South Asia’s nuclearized rivalry heightens the risk of miscalculation and crisis instability. Pakistan’s strategic importance grows with CPEC, yet its maritime vulnerabilities persist. Overreliance on a single partner or exclusion from regional frameworks could undermine strategic autonomy and constrain policy options. Without proactive diplomacy, Pakistan risks conceding strategic and narrative space to India, allowing the regional order to be shaped externally rather than from Islamabad.
Policy imperatives and future trajectories: The near-term outlook points to managed US-China competition, punctuated by regional crises and rising long-term risks. For Pakistan, the central danger is involuntary alignment, being drawn into great-power rivalry without strategic choice. Pakistan must preserve strategic autonomy, avoid rigid bloc politics, and balance its partnership with China through pragmatic engagement with the US and regional middle powers. Recasting itself as an Indo-Pacific maritime state and a connective hub linking South Asia, the Middle East, and Central Asia would enhance its relevance, alongside support for inclusive security frameworks. Success depends not only on military capabilities but also on strong governance, political maturity, and coherent foreign and defence policies. Strategic communication and resilient decision-making will determine Pakistan’s ability to sustain relevance. Conclusion: In the shifting Indo-Pacific order, Pakistan faces both pressure and opportunity. Its influence will hinge less on military might than on diplomatic skill, internal strength, and a clear regional strategy. Those who adapt will shape the future; those who do not, risk fading to the periphery.
—The writer is Security Professional, entrepreneur and author, based in Dubai, UAE.
