Zeeshan Javed
OVERCONFIDENCE precedes carelessness, the words of the famous Indonesian writer Toba Beta, seems to accurately depict the recklessness and irresponsibility that can accompany overconfidence. An astute and timely example of this is the recent chest thumping of India, especially in the wake of its acquisition of the Rafale aircraft. The Indian media has over hyped the acquisition by terming it as “game changer” for the security of India, keeping in mind that so far India has only received five of its thirty six aircraft from its purchase. On top of this, the Indian media political and military leadership have also echoed the sentiment and have claimed that now it had the power to retaliate and respond to threats. Such statements are indicative of the fact that India now views that its conventional military capabilities can allow it to exert its dominance and force in the region. This can prove to be a dangerous assumption for the region. The case in point for this logic is the acquisition of the Rafale.
Initially, the Rafale deal was the centre of attention in the Indian media for all the wrong reasons. There were debates in the Indian political circles over nepotism and unfair procurement of the Rafale aircraft. However, with India’s tactical loss to Pakistan in the aftermath of the Balakot airstrike, Rafale became a more intrinsic part of India’s defence narrative, thanks to an overhyped projection of the aircraft’s capabilities. The Indian leadership was adamant that India needs the Rafale jets in order to secure its defence. The same mindset was also observed during the Galwan Valley conflict between India and China. After a resounding tactical defeat at the hands of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Indian leadership was again of the view that the Rafale can give them a “decisive advantage” over the PLA and can ensure Indian defence. Therefore, it should not come as a surprise that the Indian government urged France to expedite the production of the Rafale and hand over at least a few of the aircrafts. As a result, France provided five jets to the Indian military on a short notice. The Rafale jets are stationed at the Ambala Air Force Base, near the border of China and Pakistan.
The linking of Rafale to the national security is dangerous in a few aspects. Firstly, when a government openly declares a military platform or technology inherent to its self-defence then that makes it desperate to acquire that capability. This desperation can force it to amplify or overestimate the impact of that particular technology on its national security. This amplification, in turn, can lead to overconfidence in the military capabilities. This is on full display if the national rhetoric within India is to be observed. Indian military experts are claiming that the Rafale can provide India with a significant strategic and tactical advantage over China and Pakistan. There have been even claims that the Rafale is an ideal military response to the Chinese indigenous stealth aircraft, J-20. This is an oversimplification of the impact of the Rafale in the overall military doctrine of India. Such oversimplification and overconfidence has a drastic social impact as well. The nationalistically charged rhetoric that the Modi government created in favour of the Rafale has now instilled into the minds of the Indian people that through the purchase of the Rafale aircraft, India now has the military capabilities to expand its dominance in the region.
Therefore, in the future, if any conflict does emerge between India and its neighbours, the Indian public will expect, and to some extent, demand an escalation of conflict in order for India to emerge as the decisive victor. The chances for de-escalation become lesser as the public has been primed to expect Indian military dominance. Another feature of this is that the Indian public will expect to see some results for the government’s massive splurge of $US 8 Billion on the Rafale aircraft. In such a scenario, where the military overestimates its capabilities and the public also move towards the approval of a more aggressive military pursuit of India’s strategic goals, the Indian government will have no choice other than to seek out the utilization of the military option in all disputes. This sets a dangerous ensuing period for the regional stability of South Asia. The need of the hour is for India to retrospect its nationalistic behaviour and try to understand the massive repercussions that it can have in case of a total war. Instead of pursuing regional economic integration, India continues to opt for the military route, which can further the instability in the region.
—The writer works at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute as a Consultant.
