THE US-India relations started developing in 2000, almost 10 years after the break up of the (former) Soviet Union in 1991. This was the time, when China was developing fast with a potential to become the next competing superpower. Hence, to limit China’s rise, the US conceived the Asia-Pacific strategy, (now Indo-Pacific strategy), and it thought that to implement that strategy, in addition to its other regional allies, if wooed, India, being a bigger country and democracy, having fought a war with China in 1962 over the border dispute, could act as a major bulwark in containing China.
Therefore, the US was more than willing to develop closer relations with India. On the other hand, seeing strategically/economically weaker Russia, the Indian government, then led by late, Mr. Vajpaee, as the Prime Minister, had probably also decided to befriend the US, being the only superpower. Hence, India also moved fast to develop its relations with the US and its allied EU powers, citing China as its major threat, but mainly to attract their economic investment, acquire modern military equipment/technology and to get their diplomatic support to become a permanent member of the UNSC, and a major power.
Those were the incentives that both the countries fast tracked the development of their relations and according to the Voice of America, between 2000 to 2023, both the countries have signed following major agreements. The agreement on cooperation in maritime security and counterterrorism, inked the civil nuclear deal, agreement on exemptions by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which permits India to engage in nuclear trade. In April 2010, they launched the US-India Economic/Financial Partnership.
In June 2010, the US and India started the Strategic Dialogue. In November 2010, President Obama backed India’s bid for a permanent seat on the UNSC. In July 2011, both countries signed an MoU on cybersecurity cooperation. In March 2012, President Obama announced India as “pivot” to Asia. In May 2014, Modi as the PM visited the US and both countries renewed the ten-year US-India Defence Agreement. In June 2016, President Obama elevated India to a major defence partner status which means that India will enjoy some of the benefits of being a US treaty ally, such as access to defence technology, though the alliance is not a formal one.
In September 2018, the US-India signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) which gives India access to advanced communication technology used in US defence equipment and allows real-time information sharing between the two countries’ militaries. In February 2020, during President Trump’s visit to New Delhi, India agreed to purchase $3 billion in US Military equipment and US-based oil company ExxonMobil announced a deal with a state-owned Indian Oil Corporation. In October 2020, the US and India signed an intelligence-sharing agreement, called the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) which allows for the sharing of sensitive geospatial data to boost the accuracy of Indian drones and cruise missiles. In September 2021, Modi attended the first Quad summit at the White House hosted by President Joe Biden.
On 31 January 2023, the US and India signed a deal on the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (ICET), aimed to expand technology and defence cooperation, including the provisions on weapons, artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Lately, the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd J. Austin visited India, on June 4-5 2023, ahead of Modi’s official visit on 22 June 2023 to advance the defence partnership in critical domains. While both countries committed to collaborating closely for keeping a free and open Indo-Pacific, they also concluded a new Roadmap for US-India Defence Industrial Cooperation, to fast-track joint production in air combat and land mobility systems; intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, munition, the undersea domain, cooperation in space, cyberspace, artificial intelligence and the cutting-edge technology.
In view of the above discussion, although India is getting the US/EU countries’ diplomatic support, economic/defence related investment, modern defence equipment and technology on the name of China as a major threat, and for acting as a strategic partner of the US for containing China, but factually speaking, India is only aiming at becoming a major economic/military power, and it will never be serious in containing China. This has been quite evident from India’s refusal to the US and its western friends from supporting their stance on Russia-Ukraine war, whereas it is maintaining its strategic partnership with Russia and its heavy trade relationship with China.
Another major advantage to India becoming a major world power with the support of the US/western powers will be that India will start dominating Pakistan and will be tempted to dictate its terms regarding resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. Because, having modern US technology and its real time intelligence sharing with its much enhanced air, land and naval capabilities, India will become arrogant as it will have the capability to pose various kinds of threats to Pakistan. In view of the above discussed obtaining situation, whereas it is necessary for Pakistan to continue to closely study/follow India’s expanding military technological advancements, it should continue to prepare to face Indian threats by acquiring western weapon systems and technology from wherever it is possible. In this context, whereas it is very important to further solidify our strategic partnership with China, it is also necessary that Pakistan develops/maintains friendly relations with the US/western powers, Germany, Japan, South Korea, friendly Muslim countries, Russia, Central Asian Republics (CARs), and ASEAN countries.
Above all, the current government of Pakistan, the future governments and the people of Pakistan and its bureaucracy have to realize that now there is no option left except to work very hard for reviving and developing Pakistan’s economy through innovation, modernization and encouraging the export oriented industries, with a focus on IT exports and export of the trained manpower, to gather minimum $ 100 billion within next 10 years and continue to increase those. Because, without economic self-reliance, no country/nation can exist honourably and without compromising its sovereignty, what to say to ensure its security against internal and external threats/pressures.
—The writer is also a former Research Fellow of IPRI and Senior Research Fellow of SVI Islamabad.
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