EBRAHIM Raisi was an Iranian politician who served as the eighth president of Iran from 2021 until his death in a helicopter crash on 19 May 2024. He held several significant positions during his career, including being the Chief Justice of Iran and a member of the Assembly of Experts. Raisi was a hardline cleric and close to the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. His presidency was marked by domestic turmoil and mounting tensions with the West. The death of Ebrahim Raisi has significant implications both within Iran and globally. Raisi was highly respected and popular in Iran. His death leaves a void in the country’s political landscape. He was often cited as the favourite to succeed Ali Khamenei as Iran’s supreme leader.
The next President will play a crucial role in shaping Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. Raisi’s death comes at a testing time for the region. Israel’s war against Hamas (allegedly backed by Iran) adds complexity to the situation. It is unlikely to significantly alter how Iran deals with Gaza or the West, but the aftermath will be closely watched. World leaders expressed condolences. China called it a “great loss,” and Egypt expressed solidarity with Iran. The European Union offered sincere condolences; Pakistan declared a day of mourning while India also mourned Raisi’s contribution to bilateral relations. The demise of the Iranian President could have economic implications too. Iran is a major crude oil producer. Raisi’s death may affect oil prices and market volatility until his successor takes office. Iran’s next President will face several significant challenges. There could be an economic crisis since Iran’s economy is currently grappling with inflation, unemployment and currency devaluation. The next president must address these pressing economic issues to stabilize the country’s financial situation. Additionally, Iran faces international sanctions that impact trade, investment and access to global markets.
Raisi’s successor will have to deal with domestic dissent and unrest because widespread protests have increased in recent years. The new President will need to find effective ways to address citizens’ grievances and promote social stability. Striking a balance between security measures and civil liberties will be crucial for maintaining order. The Foreign Minister of Iran died along with his President; both have left behind challenges for their successors. Iran’s relations with the West, particularly the United States, remain strained. The President must skilfully navigate nuclear negotiations, regional conflicts and international alliances. Given the tension in the Middle East, Iran’s role in the region requires careful diplomacy. Last month, an Israeli airstrike targeted the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, killing Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior Quds Force commander and seven other Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officers. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against Israel, while Israel responded with a series of missile strikes on Iranian military sites. Thus, improving relations with other countries is a complex endeavour, but some steps that can improve better relations with others include engaging in open communication and dialogue with other nations. Diplomatic efforts can lead to understanding, cooperation and conflict resolution. Fostering relationships through diplomatic channels, embassies and international organizations. Identifying shared interests and areas of cooperation. Collaborating on issues such as climate change, trade, security and public health. Joint projects and initiatives can build trust and strengthen ties. Cultural exchanges, educational programmes and tourism promote understanding and bridge cultural gaps. Encouraging interactions between citizens of different countries to create goodwill. International organizations like the United Nations play a crucial role in mediation. Economic ties often lead to improved relations. Trade agreements and investment can benefit both parties. Economic interdependence reduces the likelihood of conflict. Consistent actions and adherence to agreements build trust over time. Demonstrating reliability and commitment strengthens bilateral relations. Improving international relations requires patience, persistence and a willingness to find common ground. There is another major challenge that Iranian leadership faces—the ongoing pandemic continues to impact Iran—the next president must prioritize effective vaccination campaigns, strengthen healthcare infrastructure and implement robust public health measures. The question that is arising is “Who will be President Ebrahim Raisi’s successor? When a president dies in office in Iran, the constitution stipulates that the First Vice President assumes power for a 50-day interim period, subject to approval by the supreme leader. Following this period, a new presidential election is held. Mohammad Mokhber, the First Vice President, will serve as the Acting President until elections take place. The election process will be expedited, with Guardian Council vetting all candidates. They will disqualify those deemed unacceptable, ensuring a contest between a hardliner and a conservative. Different government factions will vie for the supreme leader’s favour. The Guardian Council plays a crucial role in Iran’s elections, reviewing and approving or disqualifying candidates running for various offices, including the presidency. They assess candidates’ qualifications, loyalty to Islamic principles and adherence to the Constitution. The council consists of 12 members, six of whom are appointed by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei and six by Parliament (Majlis). The head of the judiciary is also a member. The council evaluates candidates based on their religious piety, commitment to the Islamic Republic and alignment with the principles of the 1979 Revolution. If a candidate is deemed unfit, they are disqualified from running. The Guardian Council aims to maintain the Islamic character of the government. By vetting candidates, it ensures that only those who align with its vision participate in elections. Raisi’s presidency signalled the rise of hardliners, sidelining conservatives. However, there isn’t a clear hardline favourite yet.
Mohammad Qalibaf, Parliament Speaker and former presidential candidate, is a likely conservative contender. He has been a prominent figure in Iranian politics for 25 years, despite failing in two previous presidential campaigns. Raisi’s passing creates uncertainty in Iran’s leadership and has broader geopolitical implications, but the full impact remains to be seen. The next Iranian President faces a complex web of economic, social and geopolitical challenges. The ability to address these issues will significantly shape Iran’s future.
—The writer, Retired Group Captain of PAF, is author of several books on China.
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