THE recent Iran vs US/Israel war has reshaped global strategic thinking. A regional conflict soon erupted into a war with global suffering. The world continues to pay up: the price of commodities has increased 30-40 percent in major categories; fuel shortages have hit supply chains and fertilizer is threatening food security in regions susceptible to vulnerability. Yet amid the suffering, several clear lessons have emerged. The war demonstrated one overriding truth: the size of a country or the sophistication of its arsenal matters far less than the determination of its people when fused with smart technology. Traditional measures of power GDP, army strength, billion-dollar weaponry proved to be second-best to solve, creativity and flexibility.
Among the most notable lessons of this war is that high-end technology does not necessarily mean invincibility. The US aircraft carriers, which were already the epitome of global power projection, were left in the background and they managed to stay outside the Persian Gulf to avoid the no-go zones established by the advanced anti-access/area-denial capabilities of Iran. USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier even went around Cape of Good Hope (South Africa) to join naval force in the Arabian Sea rather than going through Suez Canal and Red Sea, denting Mahanian (US Admiral Alfred Mahan) concept of sea control through big/large ships. On the contrary, Iranian options of sea denial, advocated by Sir Julian Corbett (British naval strategist) is shaping the maritime warfare. The war between Iran vs US/Israel were a sharp revelation cost asymmetry and decentralized command structure. Iran defeated advanced western air defense due to the use of thousands of inexpensive Shahed kamikaze aircraft that cost 20,000-50,000 US $ apiece. The US and Israel, in turn, were compelled to spend billions of dollars on interceptors and the Patriot missiles cost as much as 4 million US $, and the Arrow 3 systems were even more. This proved that even the most sophisticated defenses could become weary due to numbers and perseverance.
Strong resilience was further enhanced by the doctrine of Mosaic Defense that Iran had. Reorganizing into 32 independent provincial commands, Iran also made sure that the removal of the top leaders did not cripple the military. These decentralized groups worked independently, exerting pressure and stunning the US and Israeli planners. Rather than disintegration, selecting assassinations instead enhanced national cohesiveness, which demonstrated that the independent command structures coupled with ideological determination could be effective in fighting advanced technology. This also highlights the grave consequences of eliminating age old and experienced Military and Civilian leadership, replaced by relatively younger generations, who may opt more hardline attitude by passing the textbook leadership traits.
Geography also reclaimed itself as an overwhelming asymmetry. The Strait of Hormuz is being successfully managed by Iran, despite the numerous efforts of the US and Israel to control sea lanes. Iranian threats of mines, coastal batteries, fast-attack boats and drone swarms made one of the most crucial chokepoints in the world, a no-go area especially for the US/allies.
Warfare took a new dimension with the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Cyber Warfare. Whereas the US applied AI to the quick targeting of people with the help of AI-based methods, such as the so-called Maven Smart System, Iran applied AI to the coordination of swarms of drone attacks and the implementation of disabling cyber-attacks on the infrastructure of US in the Gulf States.
The non state actors provided unequal strategic value to Iran. It used secondary fronts of Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon to stretch its opponents. These alliances gave Iran a much-needed strategic depth to enable it to command power over a broad area without committing its regular army. Whereas Gulf States magnanimously constrained and absorbed Iranian attacks on US infrastructure and economic interests within their states. This also showed GCC leadership maturity and understanding of the US/Israel hidden agenda. On diplomatic front, both the US and Israel couldn’t muster support from their traditional allies rather Iran has been successful in securing sympathetic ears of US backyard.
The Iran has successfully neutralized the great-power assumptions of regime change, internal rise and disintegration of command and control of Iranian military system. It demonstrated that an ambitious mid-sized state, equipped with asymmetric capabilities, decentralized control, geographic location, ideological unity and shrewd proxies, can take on superpowers and can impact the existing world order. Technology is important but only when it is combined with the desire of man to be creative. Size and wealth buy options; resolve and ingenuity win wars. As the dust settles and the world rebuilds supply chains, policymakers everywhere would further analyze the war to draw pertinent lessons.
—The writer, a research fellow of geopolitics, maritime security & strategic affairs, is associated with the National Institute of Maritime Affairs; views expressed are his own.
