THE concept of economic interdependence and its associated theories of liberal inter-governmentalism and neo-functionalism serve as the key driver for the regional integration of states across the world. The South Asian region has been prone to conflict since last four decades, particularly the two major wars fought in Afghanistan had its dynamic implications for the geopolitics and regional integration. Liberals and realists have argued that economic interdependence and conflict amongst states are inter-related with each other and while states tend to cooperate to further their trade relationship; consequently, they are keen to initiate a conflict to attain their hegemonic designs.
China has emerged as one of the global powers in the world with its deep-rooted geoeconomic interests around the world. Being a neighbouring state, Pakistan’s relationship with China has been cordial and diplomatic and both states have collaborated and supported each other in their global and regional initiatives. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as a flagship project of Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) had been initiated in 2013 with a vision to transform and integrate the geoeconomics of the region. Through its energy, infrastructure and transportation projects, China has pledged to invest more than $62 billion in different projects in Pakistan in order to enhance the actual trade potential of the region. Gwadar is being envisioned as one of the busiest deep sea-ports in the near future while trade connectivity with Central Asia through Afghanistan will transform a conflict prone region into an economic hub.
Chinese influence in Afghanistan and its investment in the country has been evident since the Ghani Administration. As the United States ended its diplomatic presence in the country in August 2021, China furthered its politico-diplomatic relationship with Taliban Administration. Recently, a Chinese firm signed a 25-year multimillion dollar contract to extract oil from Afghanistan. Such a venture indicates China’s long-term interest and its geoeconomic relationship with Afghanistan. Though it is a fact that China has also not recognized the Taliban government in Afghanistan as of now, however, its economic and diplomatic engagement cannot be overlooked, keeping in view its vision of reviving the old Silk Route.
Afghanistan is geostrategically positioned at the crossroads of South and Central Asia and materializing the dream of transforming the region in to an economic hub is conditional to peace and stability in the country. It is an undenied fact that the after effects of conflict in Afghanistan over the last four decades and militancy in the region has the tendency to negatively influence the geoeconomic realities. Strained relationship between the Taliban administration and Pakistan will add to the challenges for the varying sides. Moreover, the spillovers of Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as any possible future US intervention in the region is also a major challenge since the human rights issues as well as ban on female education by Taliban Administration in Afghanistan is a major challenge for the international community.
China’s constructive engagement with the political leadership of Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as its active support in the economic survival of both these states is undenied; however, the futuristic geoeconomic realities of the region require a varying perspective to be envisioned. Peace and stability in Afghanistan are the foremost requirement for any inter-state economic relationship and this issue needs to be addressed by taking regional as well as global stakeholders on board. Rather sidelining Taliban, the global community needs to recognize the Taliban Administration in order to engage them politico-economically. First step needs to be taken by a global power preferably, the United States and rest are expected to follow the course.
Soft diplomacy by Taliban can actually help them attain this objective much swiftly. Once the Taliban Government is recognized by states around the world, their global interaction will help them to initiate economic engagement with states across the world. Moreover, enhanced economic activity in the country will lead to reduced poverty and decline in terrorism and militancy. Taliban Administration also needs to halt their support to the TTP in order to strengthen their relationship with Pakistan. Conversely, if Taliban government is not recognized by any state, the world may witness another tragic attack like 9/11 leading to another global conflict. Political reality like Taliban must not be undermined and if the United States can negotiate and sign Doha Accord with them, it can recognize their government as well, particularly after they have survived around 18 months with a torn economy.
China, Pakistan and Afghanistan will become a regionally integrated economic reality, only if Afghanistan and Pakistan will stabilize their political economy and mend their relationship with the rest of the world. Recognition of Taliban government followed by initiation of their economic relationship with the rest of the world, eradication of militancy followed by peace and stability in Pakistan and Afghanistan, mature political relationship amongst the political parties of Pakistan and a collective effort aimed at working for national interest and balance in the relationship with the global powers are some of the prerequisites for an integrated geoeconomic vision to transform into a reality. Cooperation for all the states is the only way-forward to strengthen themselves as well as transform the region in a geoeconomic hub; however, prospects of conflict and interference of global powers in the region with their strategic objectives must not be overlooked as well.
—The writer is currently working as an independent analyst.
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