Zulqarnain Ali
CORONAVIRUS has caused havoc in America and Europe in the last few weeks. We were not expecting a lot different to happen here in Pakistan, but luckily for us, against all the odds we have a few coronavirus cases and even fewer deaths. Social media are abuzz attributing it to all sorts of things; from the miraculous effect of turmeric that does wonders to our immune system to shots of T.B vaccine we got as infants. There is nothing to substantiate these claims as yet, but there is no denying the fact that we’ve not faced that true wrath of Coronavirus that unfolded in the West. Some will argue that it’s a volcano about to erupt, and the reason we’re not seeing many cases is as we don’t have capacity to carry tests widely. There is no denying the fact that we might have a huge number of people infected with the virus, but the point is that still the number of deaths reported in the country are significantly low. Death rates by the Coronavirus itself can indicate the seriousness of pandemic in the country. There is not a significant difference between the timescales of first infected cases reported in the UK and Pakistan. As of 20th April, Pakistan has a total of 181 deaths compared to the UK which has reported more than 16000 deaths. The difference really is astronomical.
The question now at hand is whether we’ll be able to use this window of opportunity to contain the pandemic and stop it from further spreading. Unfortunately the answer doesn’t seem very promising. We’ve failed to seize the moment and are following the same casual approach that we’ve always adopted as a nation. Our government initially was reluctant and after a lot of mudslinging between the Centre and Sindh, a decision was made to go ahead with the lockdown. As a public we haven’t taken it seriously and largely were skeptical about the ferocity of disease. Many of us kept on dodging police and security services and continued to see our family and friends. To make the matter worse, just two weeks into the lockdown, the government has now decided to lift it gradually. Essential businesses will open especially the ones that get affected most by this economic activity, the barbers, the hawkers, the labourers and the costermongers. Once the country opens up the virus being contagious will spread rapidly. Government health Adviser Dr Zafar Mirza has confirmed that we’ve death rate of 1.9 per cent. Putting simply, it’s a death rate of 2 people out of every 100.We’ve been lucky with the fatality rate till now, but without any lockdown in place, if left unchecked then in a country with a population of 200 million, it can lead to more than quarter of a million deaths.
We must not forget that the countries in Europe though have a lot higher death rate, but they have started flattening the curve by implementing strict lockdown measures. Austria has taken the lead by starting to open up its country, while Italy, Spain and Germany are beginning to see a silver lining. We, by easing the lockdown are letting it flow freely and are going to lose whatever edge we already had. The government stance has always been that complete lockdown will have a worse effect on the poorest of the poor. There is no doubt that there is a huge economic cost to it, but what alternatives do we have? Any other approach will lead not only to the death of hundreds and thousands of people but also many poor families will lose their sole bread earners to this pandemic. This will affect these poorest families a lot more in the long run than an economic shutdown of a month or two. If the number of fatalities increase due to ease in lockdown, we’ll end up going round in circles and then implementing the lockdown again.
We’re not alone in facing the financial impact of the pandemic. The UK is gearing up for the worst recession in the last three hundred years, but they have decided to continue on with lock down for another three weeks. They know well that if at this moment they don’t extend lockdown, they’ll lose all they have achieved in battle against Coronavirus. So the plan is get the pandemic under control first and then head towards repairing the economy. Here is an excerpt from the statement from Dominic Raab, who’s deputising for Prime minister Johnson, “We don’t still have infection rates as far down as we need to. The very clear advice that we have received is that any change to social distancing measures would result in significant increase in spread of virus. That would result in a second peak and substantially increase the number of deaths”. We can’t have our foot in both camps. We should either have followed the example of Sweden by implementing no lockdown at all. Once we made the decision to follow the rest of the world, then we should go ahead with lockdown for another few weeks until we’re confident that we have passed the peak of it. If we’re anything then we’re a very charitable nation. In the meantime, we should all work together to ensure that we look after the most vulnerable in our society and to ensure that no one starves through this pandemic. Government should extend the lockdown and wait till we get rid of it for once and all. This is the only way by which we can save both our lives and our economy in the long run. Any indecisiveness at this stage will lead to both economic and human catastrophe that will have far-reaching impact for a long time to come.
—The writer is freelance columnist, based in Surrey, UK.
