How will Ukraine-Russia war end?
DURING the last two weeks Russia has escalated its military operations in Ukraine.There are more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine.The Russian air force which has played a low-key role so far – launches devastating airstrikes.
Massive cyber-attacks sweep across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure.Energy supplies and communications networks are cut off.Thousands of civilians die.Despite brave resistance, Kyiv may fall within days.The government is replaced with a pro-Moscow regime.
Ukrainian President Zelensky will either be assassinated or will flee to western Ukraine or even overseas and live in exile.
Russian President Putin declares victory and withdraws some forces, leaving enough behind to maintain some control.
Thousands of refugees continue to flee to the west.Ukraine joins Belarus as a client state of Moscow.Amid war, it can be hard to see the way forward.
The news from the battlefield, the diplomatic noises off, the emotion of the grieving and displaced; all of this can be overwhelming.
So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out.This develops into a protracted war.
May be Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership.
May be it takes longer for Russian forces to secure cities like Kyiv whose defenders fight from street to street.
A long siege ensues.The fighting has echoes of Russia’s long and brutal struggle in the 1990s to seize and largely destroy Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.
This outcome is by no means impossible but would depend on several factors changing: Russian forces performing better, more of those forces being deployed, and Ukraine’s extraordinary fighting spirit fading.
Vladimir Putin might achieve regime change in Kyiv and the end of Ukraine’s western integration.But any pro-Russian government would be illegitimate and vulnerable to insurgency.
Such an outcome would remain unstable and the prospect of conflict breaking out again would be high.
This war could spill outside Ukraine’s borders?President Putin could seek to regain more regions of Russia’s former empire by sending troops into former Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, that are not part of Nato.
Or there could just be miscalculation and escalation.Putin could declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces are an act of aggression that warrant retaliation.
He could threaten to send troops into the Baltic states which are members of Nato, such as Lithuania, to establish a land corridor with the Russian coastal exclave of Kaliningrad.
Once Russian forces have achieved some presence in Ukraine’s cities, perhaps they struggle to maintain control.
Russia can provide enough troops to cover such a vast country.Ukraine’s defensive forces transform into an effective insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local populations.The West continues to provide weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
After many years, with may be new leadership in Moscow, Russian forces eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as their predecessors left Afghanistan in 1989 after a decade fighting Islamist insurgents.Despite everything, still a possible diplomatic solution is possible.
The path of dialogue must always remain open.Certainly dialogue continues.President Macron of France has spoken to President Putin.Diplomats say feelers are being stretched out to Moscow.
Surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian have met for talks on the border with Belarus.
They might not have made much progress.But, by agreeing to the talks, Putin seems to at least have accepted the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire.
The square outside Kharkiv’s city hall has been destroyed by Russian troop shelling This would be highly dangerous and risk war with Nato.
Under Article 5 of the military alliance’s charter, an attack on one member is an attack on all.Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership.If he was, facing defeat in Ukraine, he might be tempted to escalate further.
The Russian leader is willing to break long-standing international norms.This same logic can be applied to the use of nuclear weapons.
Last week, Putin put his nuclear forces on a higher level of alert.Most analysts doubt this means their use is likely or imminent.Russian doctrine allows for the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
The war goes badly either way.Sanctions begin to unsettle Moscow.Opposition grows as body bags return to Moscow and Kiyv.Putin wonders if he has bitten off more than he can chew.
He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it.
China intervenes, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning that it will not buy Russian oil and gas unless it de-escalates.
Putin starts to look for a way out.The Ukrainian authorities see the continuing destruction of their country and conclude that political compromise might be better than such devastating loss of life.
Diplomats engage and a deal is done.Ukraine, accepts Russian sovereignty over Crimea and parts of the Donbas.In turn, Putin accepts Ukrainian independence and its right to deepen ties with Europe.
This may not seem likely.But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict.
—The writer is editor, book ambassador, political analyst and author of several books based in Islamabad.
