WEST Asia is witnessing the emergence of a new strategic architecture following the Islamabad Agreement signed in Switzerland between the United States and Iran. Violations are basically for two reasons: first, control of the Strait of Hormuz; second, Israel, the main villain, which is trying its level best to sabotage the deal. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s declaration that he will not withdraw from South Lebanon is an indication of his resolve to scuttle the deal. Israel wants the war to continue. Nevertheless, the geostrategic milieu stands reshaped. The world revolves around logistics and finance. It is not that America is short of military hardware; it is still the world’s major military power. However, the logistics of war are affecting the American public, who have vehemently disapproved of the war. The spiral of inflation is a direct result of the war between Iran and the USA and of the fact that America has played into the hands of Israel. American disapproval of Israel is increasing. Only 7% of Americans approve of any further escalation.
The Abraham Accord is a cover for Greater Israel. As Muslims believe in Abraham, it was a tactical move: capture areas around Palestine wherever possible and woo the states of the Arab world in the name of Abraham, for Muslims have great reverence for Prophet Ibrahim. The Jews, after their migration from Egypt, settled in Canaan, present-day Palestine (c. 1800–586 BC). The 12 sons of Jacob (Yaqub) founded the 12 tribes. After Prophet Solomon, at a later stage, the Jews split into two branches, Israel and Judah. Both profess different interpretations of their faith. Ever since their expulsion from Egypt, the Jews, wherever they settled, consolidated money and power, yet they have never been able to rule again.
The Greater Israel concept is basically the brainchild of America: a white state (in the name of Israel) in the heart of the Arab world. In 1948, Muhammad Ali Jinnah rightly declared that it was a dagger in the heart of the Muslim world. Ever since its establishment, the present state of Israel has been at war with its neighbours, funded by the United States. The Jewish population of the world is around 15.6 million people, of whom 46% live in Israel, around 36% live in the USA and the rest are spread across the world. The 36% living in the United States have penetrated finance, media, bureaucracy, the military and parts of the deep state. A large number are in the Senate and Congress. Yet, the total Jewish population remains lower than it was before the Second World War.
Since 1948, backed by the United States, a new strategic architecture has been created, changing the strategic landscape of the Middle East. In the name of Israel, a White Empire has been established. Israel has remained at war with all its neighbours in an effort to expand its territories. It is part of a great strategic manoeuvre to control the region’s gas- and oil-rich lands. Control of the Middle East is seen as control of the Muslim world. Israel has been successful in expanding its territory into Jordan, Egypt, Gaza, Lebanon and parts of Syria. The Greater Israel map encompasses areas of Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and even parts of Iran. The Gulf States, clubbed together as the UAE by Western powers and blinded by their developmental success, failed to assess the true nature of Western and US support. Arab sheikhs are figureheads, while actual control rests with the Western powers. In 1971, the British decided to vacate their bases east of Suez and the gap was filled by the United States. Israeli investment and influence increased, as it always considered these territories to be, de facto, within its domain.
Iran, after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, resisted the expansion of Israel and thus became its main enemy. Iran’s strategy hinged on gaining influence by supporting the Palestinian cause, largely through Iranian proxies. The last three decades witnessed this struggle, and Iran suffered not only the imposition of the Iran-Iraq War but also sanctions that suffocated its international connectivity and economy. The people of Iran endured the consequences of these sanctions. Netanyahu, after assuming power three decades ago, initiated wars against neighbouring countries in pursuit of Greater Israel, supported by the USA, and repeatedly sought to persuade successive US presidents to attack Iran. President Trump, according to this view, eventually attacked Iran. The resilience of the Iranian people blunted US and Israeli attacks, while the prolongation of the war created considerable resentment among the American public, with taxpayers increasingly questioning the logic of entering the war. The operation, it is argued, not only failed militarily but also opened new issues in the strategic architecture of the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz has now become one of Iran’s principal strategic tools, and any closure would have consequences for the entire world.
The war has also exposed UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain and other gulf states vulnerability, depending on US , the bases itself became the target for the Iranian offensive . The clubbing Gulf states since 1971by British and Americans, also been exposed internal differences with many of these smaller states especially Sharjah and Ajman and others , already not happy with Abu Dhabi’s control and it stilt and signing of Abraham Accord. Prewar status of Middle East is not likely to be the same.
Ceasefire and the MOU between the United States and Iran are fragile. The next 60 days will be crucial, as developments unfold amid a complex politico-military situation. The Gulf states are unlikely to recover economically and financially in the near future, as investors’ confidence has been severely shaken. According to a Bloomberg report, real estate values have declined by around 90%, and approximately $37 billion has already been moved to Hong Kong and other destinations. Furthermore, the presence of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for the defence of these states could create additional vulnerabilities, making them potential targets for Iran. The Western European powers, which had earlier supported Israel, have decided to remain neutral. Public opinion across Europe has also turned against Israel, particularly because of the alleged genocide against the Palestinians. The war has also exposed differences within NATO and created friction with the United States.
In Lebanon, Israeli forces continue to occupy around 40% of Lebanese territory, extending beyond the Litani River. Notwithstanding the Iran-US agreement, Prime Minister Netanyahu has made it clear that he will not accept the dictates of President Trump. Even within the United States, dissenting voices are becoming increasingly vocal. Without greater flexibility on Israel’s part, the conflict is likely to continue simmering. India, Israel, and some Gulf states, including Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE, have formed what the author describes as an unwritten alliance. For the UAE and the other Gulf countries, this association with Israel is likely to create additional security and economic challenges.
A new strategic architecture has emerged in the Middle East and West Asia. Pakistan is presented as the only outsider now playing a pivotal role alongside Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Türkiye. According to the foreign ministers of Qatar and Iran, regional countries should cooperate and develop their own collective defence mechanism.
Such an arrangement would effectively reduce the influence of the United States and other Western powers. China and Russia support this evolving architecture and are expected to increase their engagement with West Asia. Consequently, the United States may find it increasingly difficult to maintain its long-term military presence in the region.
The Islamabad Agreement with Iran is portrayed as a strategic necessity for the Trump administration. According to the author, President Trump faces three choices: set aside political considerations, restrain Israel and implement the agreement; escalate tensions at the risk of global insecurity and economic disruption; or initiate another conflict that could draw in additional countries. The question remains whether the American electorate will support such a course. Within this evolving strategic architecture, Pakistan is portrayed as having emerged as a pivotal regional player with the backing of China and Russia, each pursuing its own strategic interests. To sustain this position, Pakistan will need to put its own house in order and secure broad public support to confront future challenges.
The author argues that India, on Israel’s behalf, may initiate another conflict, accompanied by increased hostile activity in Balochistan and along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, including acts of sabotage. Water-related issues and the Indus Waters Treaty are also identified as potential areas of future pressure.
—The author is a Brigadier Retired, a decorated officer with 32 years of active combat experience, 30 years in corporate sector as MD/COO. A column writer, Researcher and TV analyst.
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