More than 230,000 people in countries neighboring Palestine and Israel could be pushed into poverty as the effects of the war ripples across the region, according to a UN-led assessment.
Countries in the Arab region, particularly those that form the “ring of fire” around Israel and Palestine, face a grave economic downturn thanks to the ongoing war in Gaza, according to a study carried out by the UN’s Development Program and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia.
The report, titled “Expected socio-economic impacts of the Gaza Crisis on neighboring countries in the Arab states region,” states how Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon could see their economies regress by at least two to three years due to the ramifications of the war.
The analysis examines several possible regional spillover effects, based on lessons learned from previous conflicts in the region, including the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the 2008-2009 war in Gaza and the crisis in Syria that has been ongoing since 2011.
All these conflicts have contributed to changes in oil prices, pressures on public debt, influxes of refugees and effects on tourism and trade, among others.
These spillover effects may not have fully played out at present and there remain various risk factors to be monitored, states the UNDP report.
“The impact of the Israel-Hamas war will depend on the length and depth of the conflict as well as if it spills over into the wider region, thus drawing in other parties, resulting in international ramifications that would then have an effect on global supply chains,” Nasser Saidi, former Lebanese economy and trade minister and founder of economic and business advisory consultancy Nasser Saidi & Associates, told Arab News at the end of November.
According to the World Bank, the war has left Gaza’s economy almost at a standstill, and approximately 85 percent of workers are without jobs, says the organization.
In a recent analysis of the economic impact of the conflict, the Washington-based development organization said the Palestinian territory was operating at only 16 percent of its productive capacity and was experiencing a “deep recession.”—AN
