From superpower rivalry to regional renaissance

Brig Raja Shozab Majeed (R)

 

History will record June 2026 as a turning point, not just for the Middle East, but for Pakistan’s standing in the world. When the United States and Iran signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, ending a conflict that had destabilized the region and disrupted global energy markets, it was Pakistan that stood at the centre of it all. And at the heart of this diplomatic masterstroke was Pakistan’s Chief of Defence Forces, Field Marshal Asim Munir. President Donald Trump himself credited Pakistan with “really helping” the United States secure the peace deal, praising Field Marshal Munir as “great” and acknowledging his direct line to the White House. US Vice President JD Vance went further, stating: “We would not have been here without his statesmanship and military leadership”. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian chose Pakistan as his first foreign destination after the conflict, underscoring how Islamabad has been repositioned in Tehran’s calculations. This is a unique moment in Pakistan’s history. For the first time, we have the world’s major powers, the United States, Russia and China aligned with our diplomatic efforts. China has publicly backed Pakistan’s Iran diplomacy and both nations have agreed to advance the high-quality development of CPEC 2.0. Pakistan is no longer seen as a country caught between rival blocs; it is recognized as an indispensable bridge for peace. But the question now is: what do we do with this opportunity?

The most immediate and consequential opportunity lies in the long-stalled Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline. First conceived in 1994, the pipeline was designed to transport approximately 780 million cubic feet of natural gas per day from Iran’s vast reserves to energy-deficient Pakistan. Iran has completed nearly 900 kilometres of pipeline on its territory, yet Pakistan’s side remains unfinished, exposing Islamabad to potential liabilities of up to $18 billion. For years, US sanctions on Iran have been the primary obstacle. With those sanctions now being lifted, the path is clear. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif has already signalled that Pakistan could begin importing natural gas and crude oil from Iran. The IP pipeline would offer Pakistan long-term price stability, reduced import costs and a more secure energy supply chain, far superior to the volatility of global LNG markets. This is not just an economic necessity; it is a diplomatic dividend of our mediation efforts. Pakistan must act now to complete this project.

Beyond energy, Pakistan and Iran are moving swiftly to strengthen transport links. Just days ago, both nations agreed to fully activate the Pakistan-Iran Joint Transport Committee to resolve border and transit challenges. The Federal Board of Revenue has declared Taftan railway station a land customs station, institutionalizing trade routes that have long operated below capacity. This is critical for CPEC 2.0. Gwadar port, the crown jewel of CPEC, can now be linked more effectively to Iranian and Central Asian land routes. Pakistan recently operationalized a new transit trade corridor through Iran, dispatching its first export consignment from Karachi to Tashkent. By connecting Gwadar to Central Asia via Iran, Pakistan is positioning itself as a regional trade hub that serves not just China, but the entire Eurasian landmass.

Pakistan and Iran share a border of more than 900 kilometres, across which fuel and other goods have long moved through informal channels. Official bilateral trade remains limited due to sanctions, but now this can change. “We can do the energy trade with Iran. Earlier it was informal, now it can be formal,” a senior finance ministry official told Arab News. Both countries have committed to raising bilateral trade to $10 billion through greater economic engagement and the development of special economic zones along the border. The establishment of joint border markets would facilitate legal trade, create employment and curb informal activities. This is governance reform in action, transforming unregulated cross-border flows into documented, taxable and accountable commerce. Religious tourism between Pakistan and Iran has always existed, with thousands of Pakistani pilgrims visiting holy sites in Iran each year. But the new diplomatic climate opens the door for general tourism as well. Iran and Pakistan together have a population of 300 million people and both sides recognize the immense potential for tourism cooperation. The recent approval of ferry routes to Iran and the expansion of pilgrim travel systems are just the beginning.

Perhaps the most exciting prospect is how Pakistan and Iran can together serve the wider region, particularly Central Asia. The landlocked Central Asian republics have long sought alternative trade routes. Pakistan, through Iran, now offers them exactly that. Gwadar, Karachi and Taftan have been designated as transit points for cargo movement to and from Central Asia. This complements CPEC 2.0’s vision of regional integration and positions Pakistan as the gateway between South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East.

We stand at a crossroads. The peace deal between the US and Iran, brokered by Pakistan’s leadership, especially Field Marshal Asim Munir, has given us a rare gift: the trust of all major powers and the goodwill of our neighbours. The IP pipeline, enhanced rail and road connectivity, formalized trade, tourism expansion and regional integration with Central Asia are all within reach. The question is not whether we can afford to seize this moment. The question is whether we can afford not to.

—The writer is an international law expert and an internationally accredited arbitrator and mediator.

([email protected])

Get Alerts