PAKISTAN, located in the Indus Basin, relies significantly on river systems for its agricultural economy, yet these rivers regularly turn from lifelines to agents of destruction.
Extreme monsoon rains and increased glacial melting have resulted in severe floods, notably in the Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab rivers. These floods not only destroy infrastructure and property, but they also undermine Pakistan’s economic and social stability by devastating farmland, causing food shortages, displacing millions and triggering a long-term cycle of vulnerability. The severity of the situation demonstrates that floods are more than just environmental concerns; they also threaten human security, which is now codified in Pakistan’s National Security Policy. Pakistan’s National Security Policy (NSP), which was publicly launched in 2022, expressly recognizes human security as a vital component of national security. The declaration acknowledges that risks to food, health, the environment and economic stability are just as serious as conventional military concerns.
One of the costliest natural calamities for Pakistan’s economy is flooding. Although the agriculture industry is the first to suffer, the financial losses extend far beyond it. Sectors that depend on crops and livestock, like textile mills, sugar refineries, food processing facilities and fertilizer manufacturers, also experience shortages of raw materials when these sectors are devastated. This sets off a chain reaction that affects industrial growth, employment and exports. For example, Pakistan’s textile industry, which accounts for the majority of its export revenue, is heavily reliant on cotton produced in Punjab and Sindh. Textile factories face shortages when floods destroy cotton farms, forcing the nation to import raw cotton at a higher cost. This damages foreign exchange reserves and exacerbates the trade deficit. Similarly, floods in the Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab catchment basins have hampered sugar and rice exports, which are vital for earning foreign currency. The State’s inability to respond appropriately is often due to a lack of prioritization, which can lead to sentiments of neglect, alienation and loss of trust in governing systems.
Agriculture accounts for around 24% of Pakistan’s GDP and employs nearly 40% of the labor force. Punjab, spanned by the Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab rivers, is the country’s agricultural heartland. Floods in these rivers frequently submerge thousands of acres of agricultural land, destroying standing crops of wheat, rice, sugarcane, cotton and maize. Crops are not the only ones affected; irrigation channels, watercourses, tube wells and agricultural equipment are all devastated. Farmers, who frequently take out loans for supplies like seeds and fertilizer, become trapped in cycles of debt when their crops fail.
Floods in the Ravi, Sutlej and Chenab rivers jeopardize Pakistan’s food security in several ways. First, crop devastation causes immediate shortages of food essentials, which raises market prices and makes food unaffordable for millions of low-income people. Second, disruptions to transportation networks (bridges, highways and storage facilities) clog supply chains, resulting in waste of whatever food is available. Third, food imports become necessary to make up for shortages, putting additional strain on an already vulnerable economy’s balance of payments. The fiscal burden grows as the government is forced to spend billions on relief, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Infrastructure such as roads, bridges, railways, schools and hospitals is wiped away, necessitating costly reconstruction. These expenses divert funds from development programs, exacerbating budgetary imbalances. At the household level, the loss of assets, jobs and earnings pushes many into poverty, making recovery a slow and unequal process. Joseph Nye, a distinguished Harvard academic and human security advocate, said: “Security is not only the protection of territory, but the protection of people.”
Since the National Security Policy has acknowledged human security as critical to national stability, the State must prioritize agricultural growth, flood management and resilience building. In this context, Pakistan should urgently adopt a comprehensive approach: strengthen river embankments and invest in modern flood forecasting systems; expand climate-resilient agriculture and diversify crops to reduce vulnerability; ensure food reserves and social safety nets to protect the poorest households; improve disaster response infrastructure with gender-sensitive policies; channel climate finance toward adaptation projects; and foster regional cooperation on transportation. Only by incorporating climate resilience into economic and social planning can Pakistan lessen the terrible effects of flooding while also protecting its people and national security.
—The writer is MPhil Scholar at Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, PIDE Islamabad
