Rizwan Ghani
DURING farmers’ protest, one of their leaders died due to the Police beating. Information Minister’s statement that he is “nakhush” (unhappy) on tragedy is self-explanatory. The case merits registration of FIR against both the governments and the police. Speaker was the main beneficiary of the protest on three counts: (a) it created political pressure on the PM. (b) keep backdoor alliance with PDM. (c) Appeal to his rural voters. Judiciary ought to ensure that law is upheld to protecting weak against the strong. But the history of the Model Town case is a shameful failure of check and balance. There is a history behind such killings. It’s a message like Musharraf era when farmers were shot dead so that provincial protests did not change into a national political movement bringing down his government in the Centre. It is a replay of the same policy because government didn’t want the opposition to hijack farmers’ protest and transform it into a political movement which would have legitimized PDM’s save the corruption movement.
It is continuation of Zia era corruption policy to stay in power. The $159 per metric ton wheat export subsidy is still intact with no export ban on maida, suji and other products. Both the government and PDM are protecting mega corruption in wheat, flour and roti mafias for their political support and funding. PDM is using price increase to bring down the government to save the two-party system under CoD, save the 18th Amendment and destroy system of check and balance to rule as populists tomorrow without any accountability to the state, judiciary and voters. As per 2020 USDA Grain and Feed Annual report, Pakistan’s wheat milling industry is privately owned. There are about 1,000 flour mills in Pakistan which meet the consumption needs of about 40 percent of the urban population. In my view corruption was done by colluding not to release government-owned wheat to flour mills at the required time and to disrupt instead of ensuring availability of sufficient wheat throughout the year. It was a politically engineered move in Sindh and Punjab by the PDM to bring down the government undemocratically which merits investigation.
There are two options to end this crisis. Stop smuggling or bring wheat price at par with international prices. The latter option will bring prosperity to farmers, end corruption and smuggling. The price increase will impact only 40% of the urban population with the balance met by on-farm consumption in rural areas. Government should fix prices of flour and roti with help of international market instead of political preferences to bring a permanent end to price hike issues. The cost price of 250gm roti can be calculated with help of international prices of wheat, energy, flour mills and nanbai. Government should give low interest loans to small farmers. Build factories for fertilizers, pesticides, agri-based chemicals, farming equipment and its modernization. Seed department is required to improve per acre yield, quality, control price and food security. Small agriculture dams should be built for water security. But small farmers can only prosper if government stops giving subsidies to fertilizer, flour mills, pesticides, seed, chemicals, diesel and allied setups.
Privatization has failed to bring desired results. Fertilizer factories were privatized to cut subsidies but data shows that it has increased from 1.6% to 3.6 in two decades and for 2020 it was Rs28bn. Similarly, the ending of seed department has lowered the per acre yield of wheat. By making hydropower plants, the agriculture has suffered irreversible blow. The water needs of Punjab should be fulfilled by giving the provinces their water share and giving additional budget for irrigation dams and canals. New agriculture policies are needed with increase in population. The available land utilization data on PBS shows that there is almost no change between 1972 and 2000 in areas of farm, cultivated and net sown. The uncultivated area has increased by 1.4 million acres. Areas under plantation have grown for potato, vegetables and orchard and fallen in oil seed, pulses and fodder. The country is facing food shortages. In 2019, the food imports bill was $4.7bn and agriculture and chemical import $8.3bn.
The mafias have destroyed the agri-sector. There are adverse results of allowing sugar mills in cotton belts, enforced sugar plantations and blocking farmers from making brown sugar. It has resulted in $1.7bn annual cotton import which increased to $2.7bn in 2020. The textile import bill was $3.4bn in 2019. Sugar mafia is profiting from high sugar prices and the sugar mills are depleting precious water resources with adverse consequences like import of wheat, cotton and other necessary produce. Government needs to change all this as public welfare. Furthermore, all major industries as per law have to produce their own electricity in the first five years. Pakistan has to spend $9bn on fuel import. There is Rs2.3tn circular debt, and government has to maintain power infrastructure. Private sector is a major consumer of power and making profit from these services and leaving the bill with the public. In 2019, $3.9bn steel was imported which adds to the costs. The private sector should produce its energy to stop destroying country’s economy. Pakistan should improve the agri-sector to end reliance on foreign loans, get out of the IMF program and adopt independent foreign policy. It is clear from the flat export results and COVID forecast that agriculture, value addition and domestic consumption based model will save our economy, create jobs and bring revenue to run the country.
—The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.