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False flag at critical junctures: Modi’s old playbook

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AT every critical point within India, our eastern neighbour resorts to staging a false flag operation to divert the attention of its domestic and worldwide audiences away from what is going on inside the country. Most of the time, Pakistan becomes the victim of India’s bellicosity. This trend has become increasingly apparent throughout the BJP’s leadership, particularly under Prime Minister Modi.

India has a history of staging false flag operations against Pakistan using disinformation campaigns in the media. So far, India has utilized false flag operations several times to escalate the situation, resulting in far-reaching ramifications for both countries. In recent history, the Ganga hijacking in 1971, the Indian parliament attack in 2001 that resulted in the Twin Peaks Crisis, the Godhra train burning in 2002, the Samjhauta Express bombings in 2007, the Mumbai attack in 2008, the Pathankot airbase attack in 2016, the Uri attack in 2016 and the Pulwama suicide attack in 2019 have all had serious consequences for the two nuclear powers.

Interestingly, in 2023, Pakistan repeatedly warned the world about India’s planned false flag operations against it. In January 2023, two days before Indian Republic Day, Pakistan discovered an operation prepared by the Indian Army and police in the Poonch area of IIOJ&K. Pakistani security authorities even identified the protagonists as Bashir and two of his friends, Aalam and Aslam. A false flag operation was also attempted in April 2023, days before the G20 conference. The Modi dictatorship carried out false flag operations in Poonch on May 21, 2023, Islamabad on September 14, 2023 and Neelam on October 28, 2023. They blamed Pakistan for the incidents. On October 5, 2023, Indian media accused Pakistan of supporting the attack in Rajouri. In truth, an Indian Major had killed five Indian soldiers by fire. Similarly, in December 2023, when Indian troops were attacked at Sarankote, Poonch district, the Modi regime instantly blamed Pakistan, despite the area being 15 to 20 kilometers from the Line of Control (LoC). Following the incident, RAW’s bogus “X” accounts and biased media began condemning Pakistan without evidence.

In a similar recent incident, a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims to the Shiv Khori temple in the Reasi region of India-occupied Jammu and Kashmir plunged down a gorge, killing at least ten people and injuring many more. The accident occurred in Teryath village. According to Indian media, the bus was ambushed by unknown gunmen, leading the driver to lose control and the vehicle to plunge into the canyon. However, Indian media and officials soon blamed the incident on Pakistan, presenting it as an act of terrorism. This story, frequently observed in similar instances, raises suspicions of a false flag operation. The local Hurriyat leadership denounced the attacks and attributed them to Indian agencies aiming to undermine the indigenous movement for the right to self-determination. The newly formed BJP government seeking mass support and legitimacy after barely winning recent elections in a huge upset where the opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A got a surprisingly higher number of seats, provides political context to this false-flag operation.

The current BJP-led government has a history of violating human rights, particularly against Kashmiris, as well as other minorities around the country. They now have substantial claims concerning offshore death plots exposed by Canada, the United States, and Pakistan. To divert the world’s attention away from their atrocities and wrongdoings, the BJP-led government uses false flag operations and manufactured media hype to incite anti-Pakistan animosity. As a result, the target audience’s attention is diverted away from the government’s actual offenses.

However, this has been the norm, with voices from within India speaking out against the government on this topic. Satya Pal Malik, the former Governor of occupied Kashmir, and Ravish Kumar, a journalist, both stated that the Pulwama attack was a false flag operation and slammed the Modi government for it. The current anxieties are serious because the elections upset, a watershed moment in the country’s history in which the BJP keeps power for another term, may provide an opportunity for yet another false flag. It is especially relevant in the light of the Indian government’s international criticism for its extra-territorial killing schemes.

The Indian government, like any other, makes extensive use of media power to promote its self-created narrative. The Indian government and media are unique in that they operate without facts or investigation. They simply circulate the news and provide analysis without offering any true position. That occasionally deprives them of logic, but the dispersion is so widespread that it is registered with the audience. Furthermore, the government prohibits channels and sources that could reveal the other side of the story to the public. Notable individuals are used to manipulate public opinion away from facts and reasoning in order to lend credence to the news. However, all of this appears to be extremely uncivil.

It is hoped that India will deviate from its usual practice and take note of the complexities inherent in such blunders between the two nuclear neighbours. The existing Indian administration must seek popular support through performance and abandoning its extremist policies. It is hoped that India will move beyond its fixation with the false flag operation and establish a new normal.

—The writer is a research fellow at Epis Think-tank Germany and an intern at the Kashmir Institute of International Relations.

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