Emerging challenges from Afghanistan
THE contemporary debate over Afghanistan is focused on three major predicaments: One, the format of running the Afghan administration by Taliban and its recognition regionally as well as internationally, two the economic problems of country in the backdrop of emerging humanitarian crises and three, the human rights especially the women rights in Afghanistan.
Despite organizing an extra ordinary session of OIC foreign ministers meeting in Islamabad on December 19, 2021, there is no indication for the recognition of Taliban regime as yet by even OIC states.
Notwithstanding with the general peace in Afghanistan under Taliban regime, the general masses are displeased with the Taliban’s format of running the government. Being abysmal of the Taliban’s unkind response, Afghan masses tend to remain mute even over the incidents of their sheer disliking.
The economic crises of Afghanistan have resulted from the unilateralism of United States, after it freeze $9.5 billion in “assets belonging to the Afghan central bank and stopped shipments of cash to Taliban regime”.
Indeed, it is the exploitative strategy of United States which it uses to coerce the regimes for acceptance of its demands and directives. United States has contributed $280 million in the humanitarian trust fund for Afghanistan, established by OIC foreign minister’s extra ordinary session.
As per Antony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, “we are looking intensely at ways to put more liquidity into the Afghan economy, to get more money into people’s pockets.”
United States is making use of other sources for the disbursement of funds, rather handing them over to Taliban administration. The looming economic crises in Afghanistan are mainly caused by freezing of its assets by US.
Nevertheless, the changing posture of Biden administration in Afghanistan; from abandonment to reengagement of Taliban regime has lot of connotations. On December 22, 2021, United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted the resolution moved by US which paved the way for provision of aid to Afghanistan.
After this US move, Biden administration has pledged to provide funds for the humanitarian trust of Afghanistan as mentioned above. In this regard, State Department has appointed two veteran government officials for improving the conditions for Afghan women and girls.
Appointment of Rina Amiri, a senior US advisor of former US President Obama means a lot. She remained a member of the UN Secretary General teams on Afghanistan.
In a way, funds and finances will remain in the hands of these US representatives and UN Emergency Relief Coordinators until Taliban accepts the US dictates. It is worth mentioning that, Taliban came into power after an agreement with United States.
The ‘Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban and the United States of America’ of February 29, 2020 formed the basis for the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan and subsequent takeover of the power at Kabul by Taliban.
It was a peaceful transition of power without any bloodshed or conflict between Taliban and Ashraf Ghani Government or between Taliban and US Military.
As a result of this agreement Taliban let US and NATO forces to peacefully leave Afghanistan while US did not create any hurdle for Taliban in a peacefully takeover of Afghanistan.
While analysing the abovementioned agreement, commonly known as US-Taliban Agreement-2020, two significant aspects are obvious. One, the agreement was between United States and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, though US side repeatedly negated Taliban as state.
Two, nowhere in the agreement it is mentioned that, Taliban is a non-state actor. Emirate is a terminology used in the Muslim world for the state and Islamic Emirate means an Islamic State.
The usage of this terminology in the agreement itself means an agreement between two states. Thus, there is no question of US not recognizing the Taliban regime; The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
Indeed, it’s the matter of time; otherwise everything is laid down in the agreement, concluded on February 29, 2020.
At the time of signing of this agreement there was a Government in place in Afghanistan, thus, the Emirate was referred for the future Government in Afghanistan; the incumbent Taliban Government.
Under the spirit of same agreement, Taliban announced general amnesty for everyone in Afghanistan including those who remained intimate to US invasion and instrumental to its occupation for two decades.
Moreover, there have been no incidents of human rights violations in Afghanistan ever since August 15, 2021 which could have irked the attention of international community. Moreover, after few terrorist attacks by Islamic State–Khorasan-IS (K), domestically there is a general peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Whereas, peace is prevailing in entire Afghanistan, the Pak-Afghan border witnessed repeated incidents of terrorist attacks and border violations.
These terrorist attacks were mostly claimed by the TTP terrorist, stationed in Afghanistan since 2015.
The intensity of TTP terrorist attacks remained low until 15 August 2021, but there was a sudden rise in their attacks after Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Taliban Government) consolidated its gain all over Afghanistan. Despite many requests from Government of Pakistan, there is no let-up in these terrorist attacks from Afghan territory.
Through their statements and unceasing terrorist attacks, the rank and file of TTP are demonstrating more strength, courage and confidence to revive itself on the lines of Afghan Taliban, posing a great challenge for Pakistan.
The TTP terrorist attacks cannot be analysed in isolation, since there have been incidents of direct and indirect border violation which can be interpreted as a disrespect to the sovereignty of Pakistan.
A major incident of border violation took place on December 18, 2021 where Taliban soldiers in uniform disrupted the fence, erected by Pakistan Army along Pak-Afghan border in front of Nangarhar province of Afghanistan.
Afghan soldiers even raised voices against the fencing process. This act of Afghan Taliban soldiers could be clearly explained in the body language of TTP rank and file.
This is happening while Taliban Government has yet not been recognized by any state nor can it survive without Pakistani assistance.
Let’s imagine what will be its conduct, once recognized, legitimized and economically self-sustained. Therefore, let’s read the writing on the wall. It is not difficult to imagine who will be the next target of US, while using Kabul as a platform.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
