Rashid A Mughal
THERE has been a great debate going on in recent times as to whether the world we are living in is getting safer with every day passing or inching towards a greater global conflict, which may ultimately lead to World War III. The way events are going and the way governments-particularly big powers are acting, the atmosphere is covered with dark clouds of un-certainty and deep mistrust of each other. News coming out of Washington, Moscow, London and other powerful countries are more negative and disturbing than positive and satisfying. So far China has wisely kept itself away from involving itself in power-games and has mainly concentrated on economic development. This policy has paid and today China poses a major challenge to economic prowess of America. There are numerous research reports from think tanks and major global financial institutions that China will overtake America as No.1 economic power by 2050.
At the same time, it has asserted itself as major regional player in South East Asia and has consolidated its influence in the region, much to the dislike of America. But be it be known that much of the problems America is facing today, particularly during the last four years in Trump era, in the conduct of foreign policy, is due to its own doings. Anyone who has read Bob Woodward’s book “Fear” and now John Bolton’s book “The Room where it happened”, would have a clear picture of the way the policies are being made in Trump era. The focus is more on confrontation than appeasement, more on wars than peace, more on division than unity and more on use of force than dialogue to tackle local, regional and international issues. Under such conditions, peace has become a delusion for majority of population on earth. Global spending on defence rose by four percent in 2019, the largest growth in 10 years, according to a study at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The rise was fuelled by growing rivalries between big powers, new military technologies and rumbling conflicts from Ukraine to Libya. Beijing’s military modernization program, which includes developing new hardware to detect hypersonic missiles, is alarming Washington and helping drive US defence spending, the HSS said. Its annual “Military Balance” report said the increase alone in US spending from 2018 to 2019, $3.4 billion, was almost as big as Britain’s entire defence budget.
Spending rose as economies recovered from the effects of the financial crises, but increases have also been driven by sharpening threat perceptions, HSS chief John Chipman said, launching the report at the last Munich Security Conference. Both the US and China increased spending by 6.6 percent the report said, to $684.6 billion and $181.1 billion respectively. Europe, driven by ongoing concerns about Russia, stepped up by 4.2 percent but this only brought the continent’s defence spending back to 2008 level, before the global financial crises saw budgets slashed. European NATO members have been seeking to increase spending to placate President Donald Trump who has repeatedly accused them of free loading on the US. Trump has accused European allies, particularly Germany, for not living up to a 2014 NATO pledge to spend two percent of GDP on defence.
The mercurial President’s anger over spending has fuelled concern about his commitment to the transatlantic alliance, culminating in an explosive 2018 summit where he launched a blistering public attack on Germany in a televised meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel. Giving the opening address at the annual security gathering, German President Frank Walter Steamier warned that Trump’s America First strategy had shaken up the international order and fuelled insecurity. “We are witnessing today an increasingly destructive momentum in global politics”, Steamier said. “Every year we are getting further and further away from our goal of creating a more peaceful world through international cooperation. Key elements of the international order that developed after the Second World War have come under increasing challenge”. Frank blamed US and Russia for making world dangerous.
Germany’s President took an indirect swipe at United States President Donald Trump accusing Washington, Russia and others of stoking global mistrust and insecurity with a great- powers competition that could threaten a new nuclear arms race. In opening remarks at the annual Munich Security Conference, German President Frank Walter Steamier deplored the three big powers approach to global affairs and without naming Trump took issue with him as to how make America great again. Great against even at the expense of neighbours and partners? quipped Steamier, a former Minister whose comments on foreign policy carry authority. As Foreign Minister in 2014, he was central to the so-called Munich consensus when German leaders said Berlin was ready to assume more responsibility in global affairs. Steamier pressed that point again on Friday but not before bemoaning those foreign policy approaches of Russia, China and the US.
Some historians claim that the state of peace was one of the contributing factors that led to the Great Depression. The economic crisis created unemployment and some experts claimed that the unemployment rate shot up to 25%. This grim situation prompted Roosevelt, the then US President, to launch the ambitious New Deal. But it is believed that the deal created jobs for only four million Americans while World War II provided every American with a job. According to Dr Jacques Pauwels, it cannot be denied that the Great Depression in America only ended during, and because of, WWII. “Economic demand rose spectacularly,” Pauwels continues. “The war allowed American industry to produce unlimited amounts of war equipment… In addition, the American industry also supplied huge amount of equipment to the British and even the Soviets via Lend-Lease. The key problem of the Great Depression – the disequilibrium between supply and demand – was thus resolved because the state ‘primed the pump’ of economic demand by means of huge orders of a military nature”.
According to another historian Stuart D Brandes, “between 1942 and 1945, the net profits of America’s 2,000 biggest firms were more than 40% higher than the period between the period 1936-1939. This largesse benefited the American business world in general but in particular that relatively restricted elite of big corporations known as ‘big businesses or ‘corporate America’. During the war, less than 60 firms obtained 75% of all lucrative military and other state contracts”. Many economists claim that a phenomenal increase was witnessed in economic activity during wartime. For instance, in 1943 the GDP growth skyrocketed to 17%.This gives an idea of the way the American economy works in War and Peace .Given these facts, the peace remains a delusion.
— The writer is a senior analyst based in Islamabad.