ISLAMABAD
Owing to the Coronavirus outbreak, the Rating Agency Moody’s has revised its Global Macro Outlook and its baseline growth forecasts for all G20 economies. According to Moody’s Investors Service , the coronavirus outbreak has spread rapidly outside China to a number of major economies and it now seems certain that even if the virus is steadily contained, the outbreak will dampen global economic activity well into Q2 of this year. Moody’s has revised the baseline growth forecasts for G20 economies to 2.1%, 0.3 percentage point lower than the previous baseline. China’s 2020 growth forecast has also been reduced to 4.8% from the previous estimate of 5.2%. For the US, growth of 1.5% is now expected, down from the previous estimate of 1.7%. Furthermore, weak demand will translate into generally subdued commodity prices and oil prices will remain volatile. “Several plausible developments could lead to a far more negative scenario than our baseline forecast,” says Moody’s Vice President Madhavi Bokil. “A sustained pullback in consumption, coupled with extended closures of businesses, would hurt earnings, drive layoffs and weigh on sentiment. Such conditions could ultimately feed selfsustaining recessionary dynamics.
