Tariq Khalil
THE region is in a flux. The forces who like to ensure India as the regional power have come to the conclusion that Pakistan is the key impediment in their designs. As long as Pakistan not subdued, the grand strategic design in the region and Asia-Pacific at large will never be accomplished. With the departure of Nawaz Sharif, matters moved in the right direction for Pakistan to adopt an independent and non-subservient foreign policy and come strongly on domestic front. MNS was overconfident on his hold, but every plan has grey areas which cause disruption in the scheme of things. Panama was the watershed for Sharifs. So far things were moving according to their plan, suddenly the tide turned. It was not a brag when Ajit Doval said we will defeat Pakistan from within. His claim was not without substance. His seven years under cover assignment had taught him the weakness of Pakistanis, corruption has seeped deep in the body culture. Thus he is right every one is purchasable.
In the present strategic milieu, India cannot become a regional power unless Pakistan is subdued and brought in line with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bhutan. Pakistan firstly now is a first rate military power and is also nuclear armed. With it alliance in defence and strategic Cooperation with China, it is not possible to overrun it a la East Pakistan style (1971) when India invaded with forty time superiority against a force tired of nine months of civil war, short of supplies and devoid of naval, artillery and air covers as well as exhausted by continuous flood relief operations. A debate is going on in Indian Establishment think tanks: how to bring Pakistan in line. There are multiple pressures on Pakistan. As for India they have come up with multi-tier war approach against Pakistan. First, make Pakistan porous internally like 1970-71, use vulnerable fault lines and imposition of 5th generation war on it.
Second, raise level of violations on the LoC to a degree that to engage Pakistan in two front scenario, internal and external. When the objectives are visibly achievable, raise threshold by creating a false flag operations leading to physical assault in selected areas ensuring Pakistan react to a degree but not cross red line. This doctrine is named Cold Start Doctrine, like Hitlers Blitzkrieg. Capture focal areas of Pakistan to force it to negotiations table. Pakistan, their hypothesis, will not be able to use nuclear bluff, even tactical. Miscalculation any, may lead to full scale war. Same time, India to contain China but avoid two-front war. Third is nuclear threshold. Not with standing mutual destruction. Fifth generation war with all its manifestations is already imposed. Elaborate evidence has already been given to the UN and the world capitals and also are spelled out to media. For India, it was a shock as they were used to a mute response.
Containment of China. In this they have signed Defence and Strategic Cooperation with the USA. In this they expect the US to help them if China physically enters the war. The US also to strengthen its sea front. A new Composite Command is established in Indoman Island directly reporting to Defence Chief. India is also part of Quad Alliance to face China in the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific theatre. Will this arrangement work, is questionable. To counter this strategic move China has developed various Island platforms to launch attacks on US fleet to counter any sea borne offensive in South China Sea. The second weakness India has faced, building up of logistics. India is raising a Logistic Command to coordinate this area. Also it is dumping stocks in areas adjacent to international borders ensuring smooth supply to combat the groups within a theatre and improvement in resupply capability both in plains and high altitudes.
Third, extremely important weakness was in acquisition of real time information and in the field of IT and to safeguard against digital jamming and make it ineffective. This weakness was visible in recent India-China tussle in Ladakh, and also against Pakistan as well. Recent BECA Agreement with the US. It will help overcome this weakness of India, both against China and Pakistan. Further imbalance is created by Defence Purchase Agreement with USA worth US $ 90. This is going to be force multiplier.
The basic Indian war doctrine pillar is surgical strikes in multiple sectors, capture chunks of territory compelling Pakistan be hesitant in use of tactical nuclear weapons on own people. Couple with these moves, threaten coastal area and use their sleeping cells in Karachi to create disturbance in the strategic vulnerability. New developments in the Gulf wherein India is trying to ease out Pakistan, both in supply of manpower and security. Indian Army Chief’s visit is a first step in a follow up of Modi and their Defence Minister. It has to be seen how much strategic and economic impact will be there for Pakistan and the counter measures. Indian media and social media is brimming with excitement on this development. India’s capability to fight a two-front war will remain limited for some time. But they are catching up fast.
A massive restructuring of Indian armed forces is also on the anvil and approved by Modi’s Government. The restructuring envisage creation of five Theatre Commands by year 2022. Air Defence Command will come up by 2021. Most important, each command will look after a theatre. There is going to be a Pakistan Specific, the Western Command, is a tri force command. The other four commands are, Ladakh and Kashmir, will look after from Kibitu to Achnal Pradesh, The Peninsula Command (The Maritime Command) and 5th is Eastern Command. They will have separate strategies. Western, Peninsula and Maritime Command may be tri service. A Committee has been tasked by Gen Rawat to examine and put up recommendations on these proposals. Whereas reportedly this restructuring is on US pattern and may have their input. Israel believes in fast reacting combat groups, and they are mutually interacting. In the third dimension, no first use policy is apparently stand abandoned. In the forth and fifth dimensions to get real time information they will rely on USA under BECA. Pakistan needs to study implications. And how to offset this imbalance. Political cohesion, strong internal vigil, resource generation and aggressive diplomacy is vital to counter impending threat.
—The author is Brigadier Retd, a decorated veteran of 1965/71 wars.
