Syed Haider Ali
GLOBAL warming stands as an undeniable existential threat to our entire species, but its consequences are exceptionally severe in coastal regions heavily reliant on fragile marine ecosystems.
Across South Asia, the accelerating effects of climate change are not merely ecological tragedies; they represent an imminent, non-traditional security threat. The profound alterations to the region’s oceans are shaking the economic foundations of coastal communities and directly escalating the risk of maritime conflict.
South Asia is distinctly vulnerable due to its tropical and subtropical geography and high population density; despite encompassing just 3.5 per cent of the world’s landmass, the region is home to a staggering one-quarter of the global population. We are witnessing a stark rise in extreme weather events, including destructive floods, intensifying cyclones and prolonged heatwaves that reached an agonizing 50°C in parts of India and Pakistan during 2022.
Beyond extreme weather, rising sea levels pose an existential threat to territorial integrity. The Maldives faces the very real prospect of becoming uninhabitable, while an estimated 10 per cent of Bangladesh’s land could be submerged by 2050, threatening to displace millions and trigger widespread climate migration.
Beneath the surface, the crisis is equally dire. Pakistan’s 1,046-kilometer coastline along the Arabian Sea is under siege from rising temperatures, shifts in ocean currents and severe ocean acidification. Ecologically vital hotspots, such as the coral reefs surrounding Astola Island in Balochistan and the vast mangrove ecosystems of the Indus Delta, are deteriorating. Ocean acidification prevents calcifying organisms like shellfish and coral from growing, while rising sea temperatures cause severe coral bleaching, ultimately leading to ecosystem collapse.
The Nexus of Climate and Maritime War: This environmental degradation translates directly into a profound maritime security crisis. Millions of people across South Asia depend on the fisheries industry for sustenance and employment. As warming waters alter the migration patterns of commercially valuable fish and foundational habitats die off, coastal communities face dwindling catch yields and severe economic hardship. This resource scarcity is a direct catalyst for interstate naval friction. Depleted local stocks drive desperate fishermen to follow migrating fish into the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of neighboring countries. What begins as Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated (IUU) fishing frequently triggers vessel seizures, arrests and diplomatic escalations between regional coast guards and navies.
Furthermore, climate change acts as a “threat multiplier” that actively degrades naval readiness. The increasing frequency of devastating storms, such as Cyclone Fani in 2019, forces regional navies to constantly divert their warships and assets away from traditional defense duties to conduct Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) operations. This perpetual state of disaster response stretches military resources thin, leaving maritime borders highly vulnerable to hostile incursions or illicit activities like smuggling and piracy. Simultaneously, the destruction of natural coastal buffers like mangrove forests and coral reefs dismantles the physical barriers that protect coastlines from both storm surges and potential amphibious assaults.
—The writer is a PhD scholar in department of Political Science at University of Gujrat and a Non-Resident Fellow at Maritime Centre of Excellence, Lahore.
