US President Donald Trump said on Friday he would soon decide on a proposed deal to extend the ceasefire with Iran, though the two countries still appeared to differ on significant issues that have been central to the conflict. Trump said in a post that Iran “will complete the immediate removal” of mines in the Strait and that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports “will now be lifted,” allowing oil and other tankers to start moving. But it was not clear if Iran had agreed to this or whether the US blockade had actually been lifted ahead of Trump making his decision. A senior Iranian source told Reuters an agreement was close but had not yet been approved. However, Trump also said Iran would have to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and dismantle its capacity to make a nuclear weapon — two conditions that Tehran has not agreed to.
Contradictions in public statements notwithstanding, which are believed to be aimed at creating a favourable domestic environment for acceptance of the possible deal, it is significant to note that none of the parties was talking in terms of resumption of the military hostilities despite sporadic incidents of ceasefire violations. This lends credibility to reports circulating in the global media that some sort of framework has been agreed upon informally, which could lead to an extension in the ceasefire and beginning of the talks on issues like the nuclear programme of Iran. On the face of it, the United States is sticking to its original demand about the nuclear issue and status of the Strait of Hormuz as President Trump insisted “Iran must agree that they will never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb.
The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions,” adding that nuclear material would be “unearthed” by the US. As against this, a senior Iranian source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the potential deal does not include any nuclear-related issues, while Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on State TV that the management of the Strait must be decided by Iran and Oman.
The joint management seems to be a reality as confirmed by the naked threat that the US President hurled on Oman, a long time ally and mediator. Similarly, Iran might not impose a formal levy on ships navigating through the water channel but might receive some management charges, an arrangement that could legitimize control of the strategic channel by Iran. The semi-official Fars news agency, citing sources, said the Strait would be reopened under Tehran’s conditions after the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ships.
Fars said there was agreement to release $12 billion of Iran’s frozen assets but Trump said no money would be exchanged “until further notice” — a possible reference to Iran’s demands for toll payments in the Strait, war damage reparations or a release of frozen Iranian assets. Confusion marked all developments relating to a deal as the much-talked-about Situation Room meeting in the White House reportedly remained undecided on signing an agreement despite earlier reports suggesting Washington has circulated the draft deal among its allies as well. After the meeting a White House official said Trump will accept an Iran deal that satisfies his red lines, without dilating upon the ‘final determination’ about the draft framework.
No doubt, President Trump is under pressure from Israel as influential Republicans who are urging him to finish the job by resuming strikes to close Iran’s path to a nuclear weapon but based on the ground realities, it is a big question mark as to what options the President will be left if such a course failed to produce the desired results. Prudence demands diplomacy should get precedence over use of force.
