Naseem Akhtar Khan
CONTINUOUS monitoring of security patterns of a State, is essential to prepare the nation to face all kind of threats, risking its integrity. Unfortunately, Pakistan national security paradigm has been its major concern since its creation. Internally, sectarianism, religious extremism, fragile institutions, corrupt leadership, bad governance, and weak economy, have been our major issues. In the context of external threats, hostile neighbourhood, has been the major threat. Interplay between the major world powers in the region, adds icing on the cake. Ideal geo-strategic location at the crossroads of Asia, providing an outlet to Central Asian Republics, China, and Russia to Arabian Sea for their both, easterly and westerly connections, has made Pakistan a playground for the big powers. They have been using us as chess pieces.
The international security scenario remains under transformation with major shifts in political, economic, and strategic interests of states. Incidents of 9/11 resulted in drastic changes in the security-related perceptions, concerns, policies, and mechanisms around the globe. The South Asian security scenario has particularly, undergone major shifts. The rise of China in particular, has been the most important development. The Indian aspirations to take the lead role in the region over-riding interests of her neighbours, change of hearts in Iran/Nepal/Bangladesh and turmoil in the Arab world, are the events that Pakistan cannot take its eyes off. Our futuristic security scenario predicts three emerging security challenges for Pakistan; emergence of pre-emptive use of force from the east or the west, internal security problems aggravating and lastly, how we are able to deal with our fault lines i.e. sectarian confrontation, narratives based on ethnic lines, economic divide and ensuring writ of the state. Our biggest military threat is from India. Afghanistan, in collaboration with India, presents another serious security challenge to tackle. Iranians too, have also not been forthcoming. Deployment of a series of Indian Consulates all along Pak- Afghan and Pak-Iran borders, facilitating RAW’s operations in Pakistan, speaks out by itself. Threat emanating from transnational terrorism is third major security challenge for Pakistan. We can term the threat from non-regional powers as the fourth major threat that we confront. Among the non-traditional threats, water security and climate change are the serious challenges. Some intellectuals predict that the next possible war between India and Pakistan could be upon water issue.
It is in the context of the comprehensive approach to security that domestic conflicts become a major challenge to security. After 9/11, Pakistan has become a war theatre of a blind war emanating from the ever-changing regional scenario and balancing of equations between the regional players. To face these challenges, we will have to put our house in order first, then external challenges will not be so hard to handle.
The existing internal security threats include sectarian violence, ethnic divide, and above all, terrorism. The legacies of partition, economic and political instability, fragile democracy, feudal trends, corruption, illiteracy, unemployment, radicalization/ polarization in the society and extremism/intolerance may be regarded as the root-causes of our internal security issues. Foreign players are virtually, a rider clause in each case. While tribal region in KPK, has peculiar sort of security issues, hosts of foreign players are supporting the unrest in Baluchistan, due to its resources and geo strategic location, especially, with reference to CPEC. RAW is certainly playing the major role. Unfortunately, in case of Karachi, it is the dirty politics which is responsible for the miserable plight of the city.
Madaris or religious seminaries, mostly with foreign linkages/funding, have a significant role in worsening our security issues. Our failed education system gives the so-called clerics, an opportunity to misinterpret Islam to exploit unemployed and raw youth. Many terrorist groups and organizations, both domestic and international, exist in the country and maintain linkages with various Madaris. A policy of immediate halt, a gradual reverse through well thought out strategies and a strict imposition of the writ of the state, will be essential in this case. The existing provincial structure in Pakistan is highly multi-ethnic, creating a situation like a tug of-war for power, mostly termed as ‘provincialism’ or ‘regionalism’. The imbalance between various provinces has been a major cause for ethnicity, being exploited by the vested interests. Increasing the number of provinces can remove dominance of anyone federating unit. Upgrading existing administrative divisions as provinces, can be a useful food for thought.
Flaws and weaknesses of the law enforcing agencies in Pakistan and their inability to enforce rule of law in the country has compounded the problems manifolds. Political instability, politicization of institutions, lack of transparency leading to corruption and mismanagement of funds, are common causes for the decay of state institutions. A culture of conspiracies, selfishness, corruption, and greed have all contributed towards our crumbling political system. Flaws in the judicial system, inefficiency of police force and lack of public trust in the state institutions have further aggravated the situation.
Big powers have comprehensive agendas prepared for each region/state which are executed according to a time frame. Cultural changes, as and where required, remain an integral part of their plan. An interplay between their strategies/plans and our internal sensitivities, has practically created a two front war scenario for us. While, the hostile undercover intelligence setups, deployed internationally, reinforce anti-state forces in the country, a host of undercover NGOs/ international organisations within the country, have successfully created brigades of dissidents within various segments of our society, to support their agenda, wittingly or unwittingly. Their main thrust has been on fuelling religious/ethnic divide, buying out religious clergy /politicians/ government servants (retired as well as serving) and creating an anti-army theme, to weaken the country’s centre of gravity.
Pitching religious segments against army in our tribal belt, was an agenda prepared about three decades back and has been gradually built up to harm our national harmony. Our old diplomatic records can easily testify reports of some topmost religious scholars/ leaders, now among the aspirants for country’s top executive posts, getting caught for money laundering of millions of dollars from abroad and some ex-chief executives of the country, having secret meetings at foreign capitals, bargaining on national interests. Pakistan’s internal security problems, compounded by external security threats, have made security management overly complex. The prevailing security patterns clearly suggest that our national security lies, not just in protecting borders, but in bridging the divides. There is a dire need for reorientation of our strategic thinking on security issues. If states are to continue to exist and develop, they must learn how to adapt.
—The writer, a retired Brigadier, is contributing columnist based in the UAE.
