The first monsoon spell of the year, ended on July 17, 2025 caused heavy losses in term of men and material.
North Punjab and Kashmir were the main areas affected by this monsoon spell. According to National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) there will be four more monsoon spells until the end of August 2025. NDMA has also forecasted that, intensity of monsoons and rainfall will be 60% to 70% more than the previous year (2024). The intensity and losses occurred due to recent monsoon spell are much less than caused during 2022 floods. Let’s hope that forecasted rainfalls in next 4-6 weeks cause no serious damage to human lives and properties. Pakistan has been facing the odds of monsoon and heavy rainfalls for decades now. It happened during the times once there was no mention of climate change. Climate change is real and its hazards are increasing with each passing day. But, blaming climate change for maladministration may not be correct.
Having Climate Change Ministry, NDMA and so many other organizations has not served the real objectives. Just warning about monsoon and rainfalls could have been done by ‘Pakistan Meteorological Department’ (PMD). PMD is also known as Pakistan Met Office existed for decades now and has been performing an excellent job to forewarn the Government and masses about the rainfalls and likely hazards. This Department is an autonomous and independent institution which has three tasks to perform: a) providing weather forecasts, b) public warnings concerning weather for protection, and c) safety and general information geology. Today more and less same tasks are performed by Ministry of climate change and NDMA besides PMD. In a way, there is a duplication of tasks among these three institutions under the federal Government. All three organizations forewarn the people and Government and later provide estimates of losses; they get from provincial governments and district administrations.
There is no denial that, climate change is real and causing disaster at international level including developed world. There are no boundaries for climate change; it impacts every state and regions if timely safety measures are taken. Like elsewhere in the world, Pakistan is also facing the horrors of climate change. Quoting example of 2022, Pakistan lost over 800 human lives, as a result of massive flooding in various parts of the country especially the Sindh and Balochistan provinces. In July and August 2022, the national rainfall was almost 200% above average, the worst ever since 1961. Over 100,000 housed have destroyed completely besides damaging a further 224,100. “More than 504,000 livestock have been killed, nearly all of them in Balochistan, while damage to nearly 3,000 km of roads and 129 bridges has impeded movement around flood-affected areas.” After three years (2022-2025), we are facing similar threats of flooding and losses, if same type of monsoon takes place in next 4-6 months as forecasted by NDMA.
Whereas the climate change is real and taking place for the past many decades, what preventive measures have been taken by successive governments to stop or at least minimize the impacts of climate change? Besides, the climate change is mainly caused by human beings through deforestation, carbon emission, converting agricultural land to housing societies and above all obstructing the natural and traditional drainage system. The unabated human activities have given exceptional impetus to losses occurred due to climate change. Indeed, climate change is related to national security of any state and states like Pakistan are more vulnerable from this perspective. The national security is an all-encompassing concept including food security, human security, and security of water sources.
Pakistan is the worst hit state due to climate change and it is affecting issues like food, water and energy security. In fact, it is the major driver of the internal displacement and cross-border migration of the people, a domain of national security. The displacements and migrations are caused by food and water security, which are mainly caused by climate change. In Pakistan, the military have been intimately assisting civil administrations during floods or any natural calamities. The significant aspect of the climate change is that, it is fuelling conflicts based on ethnic and provincial factors.
Pakistan has been facing the challenges of climate change since last many decades, major being the 2022 massive flooding. Thereafter, the Federal Government and Provincial governments should have been prepared to meet the challenges of climate change. What actions have been taken by governments to mitigate the effects of climate change is the real question to be answered by federal and provincial governments? Blaming climate change for the repeated losses of human beings and property does not absolve the governments from their primary responsibilities of safety and security of state and masses.
There has to be accountability of all those who spent billions of Rupees for their image building through media projections and done nothing to mitigate the effects of climate change. There have been heavy losses to the roads, underpasses and other infrastructure during the recent floods and even during routine rainfalls. This is mainly because of ill-conceived projects, compromises on the standards of construction, a mushroom growth of housing societies, leaving no passage for the drainage of rain water or obstructing the traditional drainage system. The looming threat emanates from climate change warrants that, Pakistan must formulate and implement national strategies at short, medium and long-term to minimize the impacts of climate change.
—The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University,
Islamabad.
