CHINA’S continued economic stability and sustainability have prompted numerous international organizations to revise their GDP forecasts upward for 2025 and 2026.
Its solid economic fundamentals, sufficient policy tools and ongoing structural reforms continue to position China as a gravitational and driving force in the global economy. The country’s emphasis on modernization, digitalization, AI and quality development ensures that it will remain a central pillar of global economic growth through 2026 and beyond.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, upgraded China’s GDP growth forecast to 5.0 percent for 2025 and 4.5 percent for 2026, reflecting upward revisions of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively, compared to its October projections. These revisions highlight the impact of sustained structural reforms, policy stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on Chinese exports, all of which strengthened China’s industrial capacity and export performance throughout 2025. Similarly, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) increased its 2025 forecast by 0.1 percentage points, citing resilient exports and continued fiscal stimulus.
On December 2, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised China’s 2025 GDP forecast to 5 percent, also up by 0.1 percentage point from its earlier estimate. These upward trends—confirmed by the World Bank as well—demonstrate the diverse, resilient, transformed, digitalized and modernized foundations of China’s macro-economy, which continues to mitigate prevailing geopolitical risks effectively. Standard Chartered further lifted its forecast for China’s 2026 growth from 4.3 percent to 4.6 percent, attributing the rise to gains in total factor productivity (TFP) and sustained export strength.
To assess the economy and outline priorities for the coming years, Chinese leaders convened the annual Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing on December 10 and 11. President Xi Jinping delivered a keynote address reviewing 2025’s economic performance, evaluating emerging challenges and setting priorities for 2026—the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The leadership emphasized the principle of “pursuing progress while ensuring stability,” focusing on improving economic quality and effectiveness. Eight core tasks were outlined, including boosting domestic demand, promoting innovation, deepening reform and opening-up, advancing low-carbon development and improving people’s livelihoods. These directives reflect China’s economic confidence, policy clarity and renewed momentum, offering stability and opportunity for the global economy.
A major priority for 2026 is increasing domestic consumption through a balanced and diversified approach. China plans specific measures to boost spending, upgrade equipment on a large scale, promote consumer goods trade-ins and remove unreasonable restrictions in the consumer sector to unlock the potential of service consumption. Official data show that China’s consumer market remained resilient in 2025. In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 53.5 percent to GDP growth—nine percentage points higher than the previous year. From January to October, retail sales of consumer goods surpassed 40 trillion Yuan (US$5.7 trillion), marking a 4.3 percent year-on-year increase. The IMF highlighted the central role of domestic consumption in ensuring economic resilience and praised China’s commitment to maintaining an open and responsible economy.
Innovation is expected to remain a key driver of China’s development in 2026 and beyond. The country aims to establish international innovation hubs in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Policy measures will prioritize enterprise-led innovation, strengthen intellectual property protection in emerging industries, expand service-sector capabilities and advance AI development through enhanced governance and tech-finance integration. According to the 2025 Global Innovation Index, China entered the global top 10 for the first time and remains the highest-ranked among the 36 upper-middle-income economies. Its innovation clusters continue to lead globally, with the Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou cluster ranking first worldwide. Bloomberg Economics projects China’s high-tech sector—including AI—to grow from 14.3 percent of GDP in 2023 to nearly 19 percent by 2026.
China’s commitment to opening-up remains a strategic advantage. The country plans to expand institutional and autonomous opening in the services sector, optimize the layout of free trade zones and advance the Hainan Free Trade Port. Despite global uncertainty, China’s foreign trade has shown strong resilience. From January to November 2025, total imports and exports reached 41.21 trillion Yuan, a 3.6 percent increase from the previous year. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that in the first three quarters of 2025, China’s GDP grew by 5.2 percent year-on-year, while industrial output in the first nine months rose by 6.2 percent.
China’s expanding export base in 2025 reflects a structural shift in the global trading system—one that tariffs alone cannot reverse. Even with steep US duties under Washington’s renewed protectionist agenda, China’s goods trade surplus for the first eleven months of the year reached a record US$1.076 trillion, surpassing the trillion-dollar mark for the first time. November 2025 data show exports rising by 5.9 percent year-on-year, underscoring China’s resilience and manufacturing depth despite external pressures.
This performance is driven by the strength of China’s advanced manufacturing sectors. Electric vehicles, solar panels, semiconductors, industrial robotics, batteries and digital-technology hardware have become the backbone of China’s export engine. These sectors, rooted in green technologies and supported by advanced industrial systems and digital infrastructure, illustrate the profound transformation shaping China’s position in global trade.
In conclusion, China’s trillion-dollar trade surplus, expanding innovation landscape, strengthened domestic consumption and renewed policy direction reveal the essence of a structurally evolving macro-economy. China’s unprecedented rise demonstrates that global integration—supported by modernization, technology and economic openness—remains a powerful engine of growth. The country’s trajectory for 2026 and beyond signals continued resilience and opportunity, reinforcing its central role in shaping the future global economic order.
—The writer is President, the Centre for Knowledge and Public Policy, Regional Expert: China, CPEC, BRI & World Affairs.
