Tariq Khalil
Middle East Strategic landscape is changing from Green to Red, a catastrophic impact globally but more important for South Asia, especially for Pakistan, which is in an auto correct mode. Israel, working back door since last many years, and the UAE agreed to establish diplomatic ties. It is a major breakthrough for Trump-Israel combine. Although KSA has announced, post visit of Pakistan’s COAS, their stand is unchanged. How long, it a question no body is betting to answer. To retain leadership of Muslim countries, KSA may not recognise Israel. There is strong lobby within who are in favour of their long standing conservative stand.
Prime Minister himself in a policy statement said that Pakistan will not recognise Israel. Pakistan, being important militarily, strong and a nuclear power, has put a halt on others. Multiple pressures on Pakistan, not to go for alternative forum, has also backfired. Unlike in the past when Pakistan’s pliant leadership behaved ‘yes sir men’, this time Pakistan’s response with regards to its policies is more principled. Damage control efforts not withstanding all is not going to be same in the changing strategic milieu. There are serious issues. Pakistan, KSA issues are complex important factor. Pakistan’s support in security issues is mutual. It’s replacement with any other arrangement is fraught with risks. Further, Pakistan has to see Muslim countries stand on Ummah and Kashmir. For Pakistan, it is wiser to chart its independent foreign policy, divorcing from yes sir attitude. What people of Pakistan think or feel is visible in social media trends. People of Pakistan want to see it stand firm and respected.
Pakistan in this milieu should be ready to face overt and covert pressures from its opponents. The efforts to destabilise government has already commenced. Religious bodies are activated, so as MNS from London. Sindhu Desh threat card is being raised. This situation is being fully exploited by India, telecasting live interviews of Pakistani opposition. It must be noted, as indicated, by Institute for Peace Studies Washington, there is direct relationship between politics, terrorism and crime. Dissent means pressures. Present day media and electronic warfare has gained utmost importance not only to agitate masses and create favourable ground but also to create paralysis in the target country. Pakistan should brace itself for another wave of terrorism. Price for independence and defiance is heavy.
The tension in South Asia, war looks a possibility, whereas people and political parties seem either oblivious or ignorant. They are engaged in trivialities. Democracy, politics and corruption are intertwined in Pakistan. War may not come immediately but fifth generation war is already imposed on Pakistan. Unfortunate. It reminds early days of March 1971, the political parties leaders then refused to honour elections and electoral mandate of Bengal and pushed the then military Junta to extreme steps, use of force, with unfortunate sequence of events leading to break up of the country. Their apathy and unconcerned approach cost the country dearly. Regret the second generation leadership of same leaders is following the footsteps. A country has no choice but to fight if there is a question of its existence. This is the lesson history teaches us. Many a nations stand wiped off at the altar of weakness, complacency and greed of their leadership. Notwithstanding the threat there is no room for emotionalism. Enemy must not be underestimated. Pakistan, always remained victim of security syndrome, has shown its tenacity to fight back.
Up in Ladakh, China-India clashes starting early this year consequent to India’s unilateral revocation of Articles 370 and 35-A, merging Kashmir and Ladakh in the union territory of India in one stroke, turned Kashmir valley, Ladakh and Jammu into a large prison. Rightly both China and Pakistan rejected this blatant act, it being violative of UN resolutions and international law. The reaction has been strong and prompt. China always claimed the Ladakh region as part of Tibet. In response, they occupied large areas along LAC right up to Sikkim. The skirmishes are going on. Chairman Mao way back in 1948 claimed Tibet is Palm and Ladakh is its part. It never accepted 1903 agreement. 18/19 century China was embroiled in opium wars and India under British Rule being consolidated. There has been no demarcated boundary between two countries. Earlier a British officer Henry McMahon negotiated China-India border along Himalayas range. It is known as McMahon line. The survey was a dormant line. 1903 agreement was drafted by British India. But China had observations
It remained so till 1947 when India gained independence from the British and China under Mao asserted its authority on the mainland in 1948. In early years India-China remained on the friendly pitch and there was no immediate issue. However, following Russia-China split in the 1960s also caused friction between India and China as well. Indian leadership is past master in duplicity always dreamed of making India Mahabaharat, a contentious Empire existing only in Indian lores and mythology. They rejected all Chinese offers to settle the issue. In the present strategic milieu concept of nationhood gained strength and two world wars were fought to gain supremacy, followed by scores of smaller wars in Europe and Asia. Empires building in present day is nothing but a fiction of fantasy. It is the power game and to exercise influence. It is determined by economic dominance and application of military force selectively. This is the concept which emerged after WW-II. UN, World Bank and similar institutions served as instruments to articulate big fives’ foreign policies. It was further accentuated within the spectrum of Cold War between two blocs. To avoid US containment Chinese doctrine of BRI and its extension as CPEC linking Gwadar Port with mainland China through Gilgit-Baltistan to the benefit of Pakistan and China has earned US ire. CPEC now stands extended, post-Iran-China agreement and further east up to Myanmar and even Bangladesh. China’s rise economically and militarily has altered global balance of power. It has raised alarm bells in the boardrooms of US and its allies. Suddenly, China is branded as enemy.
Further Indian shift towards America aggravated the situation in South Asia due to bullying tactics of India. In the new strategic chess game, USA wants India to stand against Chinese being its strategic partner. For India, it has become a nightmare since they are not economically and militarily capable to take on China. Pakistan is also a major check and second front. The situation unfolding in Arab states and South Asia Pakistan’s position has become pivotal. In this backdrop Pakistan post FM Qureshi visit to China along with Senior Pakistan Army officials, has articulated China-Pakistan Defence Agreement and finalise parameters of CPEC phase-3. It is a signal Pakistan gave, a major shift in its Foreign Policy. Latest, Pakistan, Iran, China, Turkey, Malaysia, Russia’s closeness further transforms the strategic balance. Washington in limbo due to upcoming elections, defeat in Security Council on Iran Sanctions will see rapid unfolding of the events in coming months. Mr Pompeo is already on whirl wind tour. In Gulf States, prosperity was due to stability and neutrality. Once disturbed economic collapse will follow as no investor will sink his money in turbulent waters. Pakistan too be ready for all eventualities domestically and international moves against it.
—The writer, a retired Brigadier, is senior columnist, based in Lahore.
