Change of heart or strategy
THE US has finally opted to withdraw from Afghanistan. There is surely implausible deniability regarding the failure of a superpower in its longest war. The unfolding of events in the post-US withdrawal is anybody’s guess.
Crystal-gazing is on and each day new possible scenarios are being churned. All scenarios hold ominous consequences for the unfortunate region of Pakistan and Afghanistan. This region has remained in the centre stage of repeated geopolitics.
Future scenarios for the region seem horrific as yet again it’s coming to centre stage of 21st Century Geopolitics. The region which has remained disturbed for over two centuries of modern history is yet again at crossroads.
In the multidimensional global transitions, the most serious lies in the emergence of China as a challenger to the US status of superpower.
It is critical for the US to block the rise of China at the maximum or retard it to the minimum. This in view, the most serious retrospection is needed in certain key questions.
What is the strategic significance of the region in Sino-US Rivalry? Notwithstanding its withdrawal, can the US totally delink from this region? And, on the part of the US is it a change of heart or strategy?
The rise of China is predicated mainly in two main domains, integration of Eurasian Landmass and mitigation of Malacca Dilemma.
The first needs critical land routes through CARs and the second needs direct access to the Indian Ocean. Kazakhstan happens to be the linchpin for integration of Eurasian Landmass and Pakistan forms linchpin for access to the Indian Ocean.
Afghanistan lies in the middle of CARs and Pakistan. While stability in these key regions is critical for China’s ambitions; instability in these regions is equally critical for the US to stop China from rising. Afghanistan can serve to radiate instability in all directions. That much about the first question. Now I move to the second.
Based on the strategic importance of the region, it can be safely presumed that total delinking from this critical region cannot be in the interests of the US.
In case, the US totally abandons this region, then China will have an easy run for its ambitious plans.
Direct involvement through physical presence may no longer suit the US, however, indirect involvement through other ways may be essentially required.
The third question is the most critical and warrants serious deliberations. Does the US have a change of heart or strategy? Change of heart can imply that the US, in its heart has accepted failure and has given up on its objectives vis-a-vis Afghanistan and the region.
While the change of strategy may imply that the mode is being changed but objectives are not being abandoned.
Instead of a direct strategy of fighting and suffering, the US may have adopted an indirect strategy to achieve its objectives. 21st Century Warfare has brought to fore the role of non-state actors. It has been the same non-state actors which have humiliated a superpower.
What if? the US employs the same very non-state actors to create chaos in the regions critical for Chinese ambitions.
Conduct of peace talks, concessions to TTA, indications to carry out airstrikes only against ISIS in Afghanistan raise suspicions regarding the purity of intentions of the US.
There have been numerous indicators that point to such a menacing scenario. Stability in Afghanistan is teetering on the brink. Recent political upheaval in Kazakhstan, a fillip in Balochistan insurgency, acts of terrorism on the Pak-Afghan border appear to be pawns on the chessboard.
In Jul 2021, CNN aired an interview of Noor Wali Mehsud leader of TTP which seemed to serve as an incitement to TTP for carrying out operations in Pakistan. It is already happening.
If the US and CIA unfold such plans, the region is up for bigger chaos than we have witnessed earlier.
The malicious role of non-state actors in Afghanistan can give a fillip to ETIM in Xinjiang, IMU in Uzbekistan, TTP of Pakistan and numerous terrorist organizations lurking in the region.
These non-state actors if not well managed can serve the interests of the US better than its physical presence in Afghanistan.
Stability in Afghanistan may be more critical than at any time in the past. Regional countries must join hands to defeat designs of inimical forces and to prevent instability which will radiate its ill effects in all directions.
Greater collaboration between Russia and China augurs well. China is expected to come out of the cautious closet and play a bigger role in mitigating conflict in the region.
Pakistan should improve relations with Iran and work for the Golden Ring of Security, comprising, Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey. In fact, it’s the merger of erstwhile RCD and present-day SCO. Many developments related to this much-needed alignment are already on the horizon.
—The writer is a former DG ISSRA, National Defence University, Islamabad.
