Pakistan’s latest round of by-elections, held across constituencies in Punjab and KP, has generated intense debate—not because the results were surprising, but because they pro-vide a revealing snapshot of the current political panorama. The outcomes have raised questions about the organizational strength of major political parties, voter expectations and the trajectory of national and provincial power structures. They compel us to consider whether the results signal the consolidation of PML-N’s political strength, the stagnation of PTI’s populism and the slow but visible expansion of the PPP into South Punjab.
PTI’s humiliating defeat in these by-elections is a result of fragmentation, fatigue and faulty strategy. Once the party of unprecedented mass enthusiasm, PTI has struggled to retain its political identity after 2023. These by-elections have starkly exposed PTI’s multiple political weaknesses. Organizational collapse, voter fatigue and disillusionment, weak candidate se-lection and narrative failure remained the main causes of PTI’s defeat.
The party has suffered severe structural disintegration due to incarcerations, internal divi-sions and the absence of a coherent command system. Local leadership, which is crucial in by-elections, remained either inactive or disoriented. While PTI’s voter base is emotionally charged, it is also politically inconsistent, desperate and immature. Repeated unsuccessful calls for agitation have not translated into electoral discipline, as the majority of PTI suppor-ters stayed home instead of voting.
By-elections demand hyper-local candidates who maintain consistent engagement with constituents. In many constituencies, PTI fielded individuals lacking grassroots networks. Moreover, PTI’s narrative remains heavily focused on persecution, victimhood and confron-tation. In by-elections, however, voters primarily prioritize stability, development and acces-sibility. These factors expose a critical reality: PTI’s popular appeal exists to some extent, but its electoral machinery has become severely weakened.
The PPP entered the by-elections with grand hopes of reviving its Punjab footprint. The re-sults showed that the party is still struggling in central and northern Punjab, although there was a symbolic victory in Muzaffargarh. PPP’s struggles stem from weak Punjab infrastruc-ture, leadership disconnect and voter perception issues. The party dismantled much of its organizational structure in Punjab over the past decades. Without trained district-level workers, it was unable to mobilize voters effectively. Bilawal Bhutto’s national ambitions have not translated into regional penetration, as Punjab’s electorate still does not see PPP as a viable alternative to PML-N or PTI.
The PPP’s win in Muzaffargarh was not accidental, but a reflection of localized strength ra-ther than a province-wide breakthrough. Muzaffargarh is part of South Punjab—a region characterized by deep feudal roots and loyalty-driven politics. The PPP’s success here can be attributed to comprehensive political groundwork and the influence of long-standing politi-cal families. Electable politics in the region is dominated by personalities rather than party ideology. Weak opponents, PTI’s fragmented presence and PML-N’s internal rifts in the dis-trict were key factors behind the PPP candidate’s victory. This win indicates that PPP remains competitive in South Punjab more than anywhere else in the province. The region’s political culture—based on tribal hierarchies, patronage networks and tradition—aligns more naturally with the PPP style of politics. Even here, the party faces challenges from electables joining PML-N for power. The PPP lacks a development-oriented governance record that could attract urban voters. PTI retains some youthful appeal, though reduced and PPP could gradually expand in Punjab, but only selectively. The by-election results will have ripple effects, particularly in the Punjab Assembly and Na-tional Assembly. PML-N is the biggest beneficiary, as the outcomes validate its narrative of stability, governance experience and political maturity. Winning additional seats streng-thens its numbers and reduces the vulnerability of the Punjab government under Maryam Nawaz and the federal coalition. Fewer seats for opponents translate into reduced bargain-ing power and diminished moral authority. PTI’s relevance in parliamentary politics contin-ues to shrink drastically.
PPP’s Muzaffargarh victory strengthens its narrative that it is not irrelevant in Punjab. How-ever, a single win does not alter legislative balances or political equations. The PPP cannot emerge as a major force in Punjab in the near future without substantial organizational re-forms, a consistent Punjab-specific narrative, strong local candidates and a visible perfor-mance model outside Sindh. Its potential growth areas remain restricted to South Punjab’s semi-rural constituencies with long-standing PPP families. North and central Punjab remain overwhelmingly PML-N territories, with PTI still influencing urban youth to some extent. These by-elections have starkly exposed PTI’s waning popularity. The results demonstrate that despite digital enthusiasm, the party has left little support among the masses. Popular support does not always translate into votes and PTI’s digital popularity far outstrips its electoral strength. Lack of mobilization, weak candidate structures, fading middle-class en-thusiasm and exhaustion from continuous political crises all contributed to diminished elec-toral results.
Recent by-elections are not merely local contests; they serve as a national pulse check. The outcomes indicate that PML-N is consolidating power, particularly in Punjab, while PTI re-mains popular online but weak electorally on the ground. The PPP retains selective strengths but has yet to achieve a major breakthrough in Punjab. While the by-elections have not revolutionized Pakistan’s political landscape, they have clarified political trajectories for 2025: stability leaning toward PML-N, vulnerability for PTI and slow, marginal growth for PPP in Punjab’s southern belt.
—The writer is editor, political analyst and author of several books based in Islamabad.
